ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[boca]

Looks like Dorian is moving WNW now.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1167054520620335104

[KC7NEC]

The model changes overnight are going to make decisions for Florida Emergency Management more difficult. The new models are basically showing potential TS or higher effects for most of the state

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like Dorian is moving WNW now.

As a whole, Dorian's orientation is stretching East-West, which is a good indicator of a change in motion.

[GCANE]

Lightning far removed from CDO, indicates not really any dry-air entrainment.
Towers keep firing and circulating around the CoC.
Looks like Dorian is holding its own but lack of new juice keeping a lid on intensification.
Recon rain-rate measurements will be a tell if Dorian can keep this condition during the day tomorrow.
24 to 36 hrs from now will likely begin the big ramp up.

[supercane4867]

I think Dorian will likely go through at least one eyewall replacement before the ultimate peak intensity

[HurricaneEnzo]

A much more serious threat in FL may be taking shape with the predicted slowdown -- significant rainwater flooding could occur over FL if a track like the ECMWF occurs.

Yep my area of NC found this out the hard way last year with Florence. Doesn't have to be a Cat 5 or even a Hurricane for that matter to cause catastrophic damage. The immense rain totals and long duration winds are deadly. A Cat 1 caused arguably the worst Natural Disaster in NC history. I have been though many Hurricanes a lot stronger than Florence but I have never seen even close to the amount of trees that were snapped off or uprooted as I did with Flo. It was pretty mind blowing not to mention the combo of fresh and saltwater flooding.

I don't know if it is climate change or just natural variability but these systems stalling near the coastline seem much more common in recent year. Hoping for the best for Florida.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/1167028268379385858

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1167056489816776707

[USTropics]

The ULL is almost parallel with Dorian now, which is causing some short term WNW motion. Should be a general NW trajectory until he fully pivots around the ULL:


Easier to see with WV imagery loop:

[GCANE]

Kermit is about to hit that eyewall tower

[wx98]

Recon finds the pressure back down in the 980s but the winds have come down slightly overnight.

[syfr]

A much more serious threat in FL may be taking shape with the predicted slowdown -- significant rainwater flooding could occur over FL if a track like the ECMWF occurs.

I have been though many Hurricanes a lot stronger than Florence but I have never seen even close to the amount of trees that were snapped off or uprooted as I did with Flo.

Fran!

[supercane4867]

That tiny eyewall isn’t going to hold. The pressure drop likely indicates an expanding wind field

[Ntxw]

Dorian has good structure, once it works through core changes and matures will easily be Cat 4, in my opinion.

Folks in Florida should already be ready to leave if warranted.

[jfk08c]

Could anyone provide me the link of the site that shows a loop of the NHC cone progression? Can't seem to find it

[TallyTracker]

That tiny eyewall isn’t going to hold. The pressure drop likely indicates an expanding wind field

This is what I’m most concerned about. Larger wind field = larger storm surge and greater impacts over more of the coastline.

[Kazmit]

Could anyone provide me the link of the site that shows a loop of the NHC cone progression? Can't seem to find it

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

[HurricaneEnzo]

Could anyone provide me the link of the site that shows a loop of the NHC cone progression? Can't seem to find it

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

That center reformation to the North really hosed things up. His path by Puerto Rico wasn't even in the cone a couple days out. Not trying to bash NHC does an amazing job just shows there is always much more to learn.

[dspguy]

His path by Puerto Rico wasn't even in the cone a couple days out. Not trying to bash NHC does an amazing job just shows there is always much more to learn.

The cone represents a 2/3 probability of where the center of the storm will be. This was that 1/3.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml