ATL: DORIAN - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Wasn't expecting such a slow down this morning from the UKMET. That's something new I haven't really thought about with the shortwave at the Ohio Valley. The GFS did somewhat sniff this out last night, and the 0z Euro.

This is going to be one tough forecast.

[psyclone]

Here is the thing about this slow down..

It happens from a short wave over the ohio valley. Yesterday this shortwave did not exist in the models.

And today it does not exist on any map i can find.

There is a larger trough further back which is what eventually turns it over the northern or central gulf coast.

I find this phantom trough highly suspect at this point.

Well hopefully the smart ones down in Miami can help us out....because the phantom trough is sure fooling a bunch of those ensembles from the Euro. The general slowdown indicates increasing uncertainty.

[LarryWx]

Good amount of 6z Euro ensembles recurve. All depends on speed...

Not seeing that... They only go out to 90 hours and zero show a clear recurve to me.... - Never mind - found it... you are right!!

No, bqknight is correct. 6Z EPS goes out to 144 and the eastward EPS trend in the mean that started with yesterday’s 18Z continues. Whereas yesterday’s 12Z at 162 had fewer than 10 still offshore FL to the east, today’s 0Z at 150 had about 20-25 and the brand new 6Z at 144 has close to 30 implying increasing chance of Carolina hit or even a sharp recurve OTS.

[Aric Dunn]

Good amount of 6z Euro ensembles recurve. All depends on speed...

Not seeing that... They only go out to 90 hours and zero show a clear recurve to me.... - Never mind - found it... you are right!!

No, bqknight is correct. 6Z EPS goes out to 144 and the eastward EPS trend in the mean that started with yesterday’s 18Z continues. Whereas yesterday’s 12Z at 162 had fewer than 10 still offshore FL to the east, today’s 0Z at 150 had about 20-25 and the brand new 6Z at 144 has close to 30 implying increasing chance of Carolina hit or even a sharp recurve OTS.

The west turn is nearly inside the 48 hour mark we will know with a good probably in 24hours.

[p1nheadlarry]

Good amount of 6z Euro ensembles recurve. All depends on speed...

Not seeing that... They only go out to 90 hours and zero show a clear recurve to me.... - Never mind - found it... you are right!!

No, bqknight is correct. 6Z EPS goes out to 144 and the eastward EPS trend in the mean that started with yesterday’s 18Z continues. Whereas yesterday’s 12Z at 162 had fewer than 10 still offshore FL to the east, today’s 0Z at 150 had about 20-25 and the brand new 6Z at 144 has close to 30 implying increasing chance of Carolina hit or even a sharp recurve OTS.

Flashbacks of Joaquin

[tolakram]

Not seeing that... They only go out to 90 hours and zero show a clear recurve to me.... - Never mind - found it... you are right!!

No, bqknight is correct. 6Z EPS goes out to 144 and the eastward EPS trend in the mean that started with yesterday’s 18Z continues. Whereas yesterday’s 12Z at 162 had fewer than 10 still offshore FL to the east, today’s 0Z at 150 had about 20-25 and the brand new 6Z at 144 has close to 30 implying increasing chance of Carolina hit or even a sharp recurve OTS.

The west turn is nearly inside the 48 hour mark we will know with a good probably in 24hours.

I think the west turn is a given, don't you? It's if and when it makes a north turn that's in question.

[Cerlin]

Are there any models not showing an eventual northern turn and a direct path over Florida into the GOM?

[Aric Dunn]

No, bqknight is correct. 6Z EPS goes out to 144 and the eastward EPS trend in the mean that started with yesterday’s 18Z continues. Whereas yesterday’s 12Z at 162 had fewer than 10 still offshore FL to the east, today’s 0Z at 150 had about 20-25 and the brand new 6Z at 144 has close to 30 implying increasing chance of Carolina hit or even a sharp recurve OTS.

The west turn is nearly inside the 48 hour mark we will know with a good probably in 24hours.

I think the west turn is a given, don't you? It's if and when it makes a north turn that's in question.

I meant it as a highlight. By tomorrow the ridging will be set into place and thus sampled and data inputed into the models.

Does the turn start earlier because the ull dies and move away faster. Does the initial ridge build faster. Etc..

[slamdaddy]

If ??

[KC7NEC]

No, bqknight is correct. 6Z EPS goes out to 144 and the eastward EPS trend in the mean that started with yesterday’s 18Z continues. Whereas yesterday’s 12Z at 162 had fewer than 10 still offshore FL to the east, today’s 0Z at 150 had about 20-25 and the brand new 6Z at 144 has close to 30 implying increasing chance of Carolina hit or even a sharp recurve OTS.

The west turn is nearly inside the 48 hour mark we will know with a good probably in 24hours.

I think the west turn is a given, don't you? It's if and when it makes a north turn that's in question.

I don't think the west turn is even a debate at this point..... the north turn later is the real question.

[beachman80]

Are there any models not showing an eventual northern turn and a direct path over Florida into the GOM?

Fewer and fewer. I wouldn’t count the west coast out of the woods just yet. This could pull Ann iCON and drift a few more miles south under the state and then begin to poll more north in the extreme SE gulf. There are a few euro ensembles that do that. All bets on the table.

[Aric Dunn]

Point being once the players are in place then we will know.

Yes the turn is happening.. but we dont know when.. if it starts even 6 to 12 hours sooner does that allow the ridgw to build west more and put more ridging between dorian and whatever phantom short wave might swing through.. etc..

The next 24 to 36 hours are probably. The most important..

[catskillfire51]

Looking at the euro ensembles it seems that the stronger it is the sooner the recurve.

[ronjon]

I do not see the sharp recurve scenario yet in the models 500 mb pattern - in fact when most dissolve the western edge of the 500 mb ridge in the SW Atlantic due to a small trough swinging thru the NE on early Monday, they rebuild ridging to the north and east of Florida in more of a N-NW ridge orientation. So given this I would expect a gradual turn toward the N-NW and no easterly component until it reaches 30-35 north latitude.

[Blinhart]

Is it just me, or has the models spread out further than before.

[Aric Dunn]

The 12z height anomalies. Is intersting. The 6z had very little building west of the ridge. Vs the 12z has a very stout ridge building west. And no shortwave
At 72 hours
I always use the name for the mid latitude synoptics.

Could be a sign the 12z models are going to flip back.. new data ?

Check the NAM

Edit. I mean the ensembles

[stormlover2013]

The 12z height anomalies. Is intersting. The 6z had very little building west of the ridge. Vs the 12z has a very stout ridge building west. And no shortwave
At 72 hours
I always use the name for the mid latitude synoptics.

Could be a sign the 12z models are going to flip back.. new data ?

Check the NAM

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2912&fh=84


so aric what do u see here

[AutoPenalti]

Where's the shortwave on the WV loop?

[AxaltaRacing24]

The 12z height anomalies. Is intersting. The 6z had very little building west of the ridge. Vs the 12z has a very stout ridge building west. And no shortwave
At 72 hours
I always use the name for the mid latitude synoptics.

Could be a sign the 12z models are going to flip back.. new data ?

Check the NAM

While I hold onto hope that Dorian could miss Florida, there is still plenty of time for this scenario to swing right back.

[ronjon]

LOL - 12z NAM brings Dorian to WPB Sunday night at 8 pm.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2019082912&fh=84