ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

[GCANE]

I can see this going just south of Jamaica and then maybe grazing Cancun.
May spend a little time over the Yucatan.
If it spins up a little faster than I am thinking, could run the Yucatan Channel.

[floridasun78]

nhc still have dead not 2pm outlook

[GCANE]

Just to the west of this, air is nearly saturated and minimal shear

[GCANE]

Towers still firing over the top of the cirrus.
Plowing right thru the dry air.
Cylinders firing up.

[GCANE]

Outflow boundary moving north from convection firing SW of the CoC.
This may really light up around dusk.

[Aric Dunn]

Just to the west of this, air is nearly saturated and minimal shear

Odly enough we still have easterly shear from the strong ridge to the north.. when that relaxes i might really make it. It might already be a tc.

[tailgater]

On visible you can see a pretty sharp turning in the low level clouds just on the northern edge of the deepest convection. Maybe a little northerly shear from something, possibly the upper high building to east?

[GCANE]

Looks to be more then a tropical wave now.
Clouds to the NW moving nearly straight south.

[floridasun78]

Looks to be more that a tropical wave now.
Clouds to the NW moving nearly straight south.

what are you try say about ex 96l?

[GCANE]

Looks to be more that a tropical wave now.
Clouds to the NW moving nearly straight south.

what are you try say about ex 96l?

Likely on the verge of a TD.
Next few hours should nail it, especially when it starts to interact with that outflow boundary I mentioned.

[StormLogic]

He's trying to say its not dead!
look at this loop, amazing how its still trying to stay alive.
https://col.st/9SlwQ

[floridasun78]

Looks to be more that a tropical wave now.
Clouds to the NW moving nearly straight south.

what are you try say about ex 96l?

Likely on the verge of a TD.
Next few hours should nail it, especially when it starts to interact with that outflow boundary I mentioned.

i notice banding too north side plus if look central atlantic ocean you see ex96 hook to upper low that too east of it

[AnnularCane]

Admittedly, 96L does look pretty good at the moment, but if it were almost a TD, wouldn't there be a mention of it in the TWO?

[ScottNAtlanta]

I've seen things classified that look a whole lot worse than this. You have to be careful with small systems like this. They are often missed by models and can ramp up quickly when given the chance.

[Aric Dunn]

As long as that convection keep refiring. It can do it. It cant afford to collapse with the strong low level flow.

[floridasun78]

ok looking sat pic now you see shear from east side all storm are on west side what maybe a low

[Aric Dunn]

Admittedly, 96L does look pretty good at the moment, but if it were almost a TD, wouldn't there be a mention of it in the TWO?

Like i said before... they are likely just going to turn a blind eye..

[ScottNAtlanta]

Well, its headed straight for buoy 42059...so we shall see in fairly short order what going on here

[Aric Dunn]

ok looking sat pic now you see shear from east side all storm are on west side what maybe a low

Yes easterly mid level shear from the ridging to the north. That should subside soon. Then it might take off...

[CyclonicFury]

It looks good, but there are no indications of any westerlies at the surface. A 14:30z ASCAT pass confirmed that ex-96L is still an open wave, and there are no surface observations of westerlies. There's a reason why NHC has not mentioned it on their TWO.