ATL: DORIAN - Models

[gatorcane]

12Z ICON landfall in SE Florida / Ft Lauderdale it looks like creeping WSW

[sma10]

Icon nearly identical as the 6z euro.. just a hair faster..

Aric, note that the ICON positioning is much quicker than its 6Z version ... however, very much in line with its 00Z solution. Is it possible that we will end up finding all the slowdowns on the 6Z models to be a blip?

In other words, I realize that ICON and NAM are far from the "go to" models ... but they are BOTH abandoning the marked slowdown that occurred at 6Z. Will the major models follow suit?

[supercane4867]

Very pronounced SW dip on 12z ICON

[caneseddy]

Looks like landfall is downtown Fort Lauderdale on this run and heading WSW

[chris_fit]

[StPeteMike]

Icon nearly identical as the 6z euro.. just a hair faster..

Aric, note that the ICON positioning is much quicker than its 6Z version ... however, very much in line with its 00Z solution. Is it possible that we will end up finding all the slowdowns on the 6Z models to be a blip?

Not Aric, but that’s what my feeling was with the 6z models. Recurve is still a good possibility, but the timing (especially but unfortunately) of it happening before Florida was off, too slow of speed.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

As you stated relating to the models being south of the NHC is there anything to take from this? Do you possibly see minor future adjustments south?

Well first off the fact that a random short wave shows up in the models from one run to the next is suspect.

We will have to see what happens. I dont see a trough of any kind on the current analysis that would match up with the timing. So where is comes from is anyones guess.

[hurricaneCW]

Icon nearly identical as the 6z euro.. just a hair faster..

Aric, note that the ICON positioning is much quicker than its 6Z version ... however, very much in line with its 00Z solution. Is it possible that we will end up finding all the slowdowns on the 6Z models to be a blip?

Not Aric, but that’s what my feeling was with the 6z models. Recurve is still a good possibility, but the timing (especially but unfortunately) of it happening before Florida was off, too slow of speed.

There's no sweeping trough to recurve this thing. It'll likely just get stuck and wait for the ridge to rebuild. Worst case scenario is that he gets stuck just inland.

[Siker]

ICON is left a 24 hours

As an FYI - the NHC notes that the ICON model is an intensity model and not a model for track forecasting. It's a consensus model of the following models: DSHP, LGEM, HWFI, HMNI.

That is NOT the same ICON. The ICON listed on the NHC site is just intensity averages of other models; it has no spatial component to it. The ICON plotted on Tropical Tidbits is a global model produced by Germany's weather service, info here: https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherf ... ption.html

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you Aric,

The reason for my concern anything further south is the Key Largo home. What kind of weather can we expect down there, if it comes in Palm Beach Broward county with that concerning WSW drift.

[SouthFLTropics]

We need to hope that this ICON run doesn't unfold this way or we are all going to need an Ark to get around in South Florida. August has already been incredibly wet. You throw this into the mix and there's going to be water EVERYWHERE!!!

[sma10]

We need to hope that this ICON run doesn't unfold this way or we are all going to need an Ark to get around in South Florida. August has already been incredibly wet. You throw this into the mix and there's going to be water EVERYWHERE!!!

Not to mention no electricity for a month. That would be battering hurricane force winds for a very long time

[Aric Dunn]

12z gfs atlantic ridge is distictly stronger at 18 hours and the ull is weaker and sw. .maybe gfs farther south ?

[Hurricane Jed]

While we’d all like to see a recurve, I highly doubt it will happen. Keep prepping. No one in Florida is in the clear yet if at all. Better to prepare for the worst.

[StPeteMike]

Aric, note that the ICON positioning is much quicker than its 6Z version ... however, very much in line with its 00Z solution. Is it possible that we will end up finding all the slowdowns on the 6Z models to be a blip?

Not Aric, but that’s what my feeling was with the 6z models. Recurve is still a good possibility, but the timing (especially but unfortunately) of it happening before Florida was off, too slow of speed.

There's no sweeping trough to recurve this thing. It'll likely just get stuck and wait for the ridge to rebuild. Worst case scenario is that he gets stuck just inland.

This is true, but there’s the possibility that with the weak steering currents, a slow direction to the north or northwest could occur.

I think the models showing a SW to WSW movement are picking up the weak steering currents and the chance the storm could just meander around for a while before something let’s up.

[Pughetime12]

Aric,

As you stated relating to the models being south of the NHC is there anything to take from this? Do you possibly see minor future adjustments south?

Well first off the fact that a random short wave shows up in the models from one run to the next is suspect.

We will have to see what happens. I dont see a trough of any kind on the current analysis that would match up with the timing. So where is comes from is anyones guess.

So is your thought that it still comes in South of current NHC track? Thanks so much for your insight, I’ve been lurking for years and I always try to find your posts when a Hurricane is coming

[catskillfire51]

12z gfs atlantic ridge is distictly stronger at 18 hours and the ull is weaker and sw. .maybe gfs farther south ?

Looks like it already started its turn at 18hrs

[tolakram]

Trend

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

As you stated relating to the models being south of the NHC is there anything to take from this? Do you possibly see minor future adjustments south?

Well first off the fact that a random short wave shows up in the models from one run to the next is suspect.

We will have to see what happens. I dont see a trough of any kind on the current analysis that would match up with the timing. So where is comes from is anyones guess.

So is your thought that it still comes in South of current NHC track? Thanks so much for your insight, I’ve been lurking for years and I always try to find your posts when a Hurricane is coming

Right now yes. But we need another 24 hrs to really see how the ridging sets up.

[tolakram]

Started out looking like the ridge was stronger but now almost identical to the 6Z run.