ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

Welp, plotting the NHC coordinates puts the center passing less than 50 miles from my house. That is CLOSE. Will see how the midday models go, and whether they show a growing or dwindling chance of an offshore recurve.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm in the close scrape to out to sea camp but my confidence level is about 2%. Hopefully by this time tomorrow we'll be a lot more confident.

Lets see if this holds after the 12z..

Right now the best consensus, we are privy to say, is south of current nhc forcast. that says a lot.

"It should be noted that the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP corrected
consensus models remain south of the official forecast"

[WeatherEmperor]

I'm in the close scrape to out to sea camp but my confidence level is about 2%. Hopefully by this time tomorrow we'll be a lot more confident.

Lets see if this holds after the 12z..

Right now the best consensus, we are privy to say, is south of current nhc forcast. that says a lot.

"It should be noted that the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP corrected
consensus models remain south of the official forecast"

It has to be the GFS holding things back right?


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[AxaltaRacing24]

I'm in the close scrape to out to sea camp but my confidence level is about 2%. Hopefully by this time tomorrow we'll be a lot more confident.

Lets see if this holds after the 12z..

Right now the best consensus, we are privy to say, is south of current nhc forcast. that says a lot.

"It should be noted that the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP corrected
consensus models remain south of the official forecast"

It has to be the GFS holding things back right?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes.

[hurricaneCW]

I highly doubt Dorian's going OTS, the weakness is very weak and it's likely another ridge develops on top of it and steers it westward in the event the storm slows just offshore.

This could put other places like GA or the Carolinas at risk though. I've always felt that the N/E further starting point would lead to a further north track long term.

[tolakram]

Feeling a bit better with the latest trends.

That’s an interesting statement to make when several models show a south florida landfall still. It’s way too early for anybody to get confident.

He didn't say he was confident, he simply said he felt a bit better.

[HarryPotter]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1167089877260763141

[Sanibel]

A category 4 that landfalls and sits and spins will be a nasty costumer...Impact damage in the landfall zone and power outages and flooding everywhere else...Like Irma, another stressful decision-maker...

We'll see if the models firm up tonight...

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1167102014892969989

[NFLnut]

Feeling a bit better with the latest trends.

which trends are those, you are in real danger of a direct hit?

The northward trends.

WHAT "northward trends?!" Even the GFS, the only north-of-central Florida outlier as of last night, has dipped south. And it's probably still too far north.

[GCANE]

Large eyewall hot tower firing off.
A feeder band through the Mona Passage maybe kicking in.

[1900hurricane]

I think this is better to post over here since it contains analysis of the synoptic setup.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1167106515779633154

[Weatherboy1]

GFS was in Jacksonville overnight. Then moved to around Cape Canaveral with landfall forecast. Now about 30-40 miles south of that. Trend is NOT friendly for South FL, especially considering UKMET just came in (again) around West Palm Beach area. GFS was the only major northern outlier and now it's coming into alignment with others that were more south. Worrisome ...

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1167103842242220033

[AJC3]

On behalf of the board mods and admins, this is probably a good time to remind everyone that because of how hectic the next 3-4 days promise to be in here, try and remember to keep your posts and replies civil.

When someone posts an incorrect observation or piece of information, or an opinion that's ill-founded or has none at all, keep your emotions in check and politely correct them. When you disagree on an opinion, point out why, but in a civil manner.

It's fine to disagree, but (to quote Jules Winnfield) let's all try to be a bunch of little Fonzie's...and be cool about it. Think twice before you hit "submit" button.

Also, try and keep the chit chat posts of few words to a minimum. We've had to delete a number of one word WOW/OMG type posts over the past few days.

Finally, if you see a post that you feel violates board rules, report it, and one of the staff will address it.

*This is directed at noone in particular and everyone in general. Thanks. Carry on, stay safe, and let's sit back and see how the next few days evolve. It should be a wild ride.

[TheStormExpert]

I just said I felt a bit better but I'm not so sure now after seeing the latest GFS run. Having mixed signals. BTW, the Pubilx I went to here in Palm Beach Gardens is a madhouse with customers rushing around galore! Also no water expect Coconut Water.

[Mouton]

From my recollection, when storms slow down in forward speed, it mostly leads to a change of direction to northerly. It is also my perception that strong storms seem to gain latitude.

The EURO is showing an arrival in S central peninsula about the same place as one day earlier. The differences with the latest model is the intensity at landfall is 20mb lower at 00z tuesday and it takes an abrupt right turn and takes about two days to exit Fl west of Kingsland Ga. The 12Z GFS seems to be about 50 miles south on landing in Fl from its previous run(!) with landing on Monday. It appears to be heading across the state when it crosses over the EURO plot takes a right and heads NW up 75. Exits Fl above lake city on Wednesday. My point is it seems both the EURO and GFS concur about a landing on the Peninsula one day apart south of Cape C. Both head up the interior of the state, one day apart, with the earlier arriving GFS making its way farther west. Both passings will drop copious amounts of rain in NE Fl as their intensity wanes over land with either of these passes. Neither seems to show a precuser of an OTS run, but it is now 4 days to make more corrections!

[NFLnut]

Also no water expect Coconut Water.

When even the coconut water AND the hot dog buns are gone, there is cause for concern!

I went to the Costco yesterday for my (ir)regular Weds/Thurs run. Was thinking as I drove there that I would top off my tank (not yet for Dorian .. just because it's $0.04/gallon cheaper) and when I got there, there was a 45 minute line for gas. And a sign out the door "we're out of bottled water." Glad I bought bottled water back in May when you're supposed to. I use it at work if no 'canes.

[GCANE]

VIS Sat clearly showing a feeder band in the Mona Passage.
Popups already firing over PR. They will moisten Dorian later today.
With the EWRC completing later today, could see a well defined eye before Sunset.

[TheStormExpert]

From my recollection, when storms slow down in forward speed, it mostly leads to a change of direction to northerly. It is also my perception that strong storms seem to gain latitude.

The EURO is showing an arrival in S central peninsula about the same place as one day earlier. The differences with the latest model is the intensity at landfall is 20mb lower at 00z tuesday and it takes an abrupt right turn and takes about two days to exit Fl west of Kingsland Ga. The 12Z GFS seems to be about 50 miles south on landing in Fl from its previous run(!) with landing on Monday. It appears to be heading across the state when it crosses over the EURO plot takes a right and heads NW up 75. Exits Fl above lake city on Wednesday. My point is it seems both the EURO and GFS concur about a landing on the Peninsula one day apart south of Cape C. Both head up the interior of the state, one day apart, with the earlier arriving GFS making its way farther west. Both passings will drop copious amounts of rain in NE Fl as their intensity wanes over land with either of these passes. Neither seems to show a precuser of an OTS run, but it is now 4 days to make more corrections!

Frances back in 2004 slowed down to a crawl in the middle of the Northwestern Bahamas as it was feeling the western periphery of the Bermuda High, even after it went on to make a landfall along Floridas East Coast and cross the entire state and went into the eastern panhandle. Not saying Dorian will do the exact same but it just a thought.