ATL: DORIAN - Models

[1900hurricane]

VERY weak steering at tau 102.

[caneseddy]

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 67.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2019 21.1N 67.1W WEAK
00UTC 30.08.2019 22.7N 68.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2019 24.2N 70.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2019 25.4N 72.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2019 26.0N 74.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2019 26.3N 76.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.5N 78.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.7N 80.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2019 27.2N 81.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 27.5N 82.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2019 28.0N 84.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2019 28.6N 84.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.6N 85.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

Landfall over West Palm Beach. Last position is just south of Port St. Joe, so it does take it across to the Gulf.

[USTropics]

barely moves for 12 hours after making landfall:

[beachman80]

A lot of the reason the GFS doesn’t dip WSW is it keeps it a bit weaker. 970-980mb is on the weaker end of the models. I def think there’s a correlation in many of the models in that the stronger it is, the more south it will be. The stronger storms want to dip this more WSW like Andrew and even Irma did when it dove into north Cuba a couple years ago.

[MacTavish]

Uh oh.. looks like bunch of building ridging to nw.. going into gulf maybe ?

108 hours its a good 150 miles south of 6z

Actually the ridge is all but gone around the time of landfall. Hence the storm nearly stalls.

[LarryWx]

UKMET well west of prior run into Gulf!

[Evil Jeremy]

UKMET exits around Tampa then heads for West Panhandle.

[Aric Dunn]

Uh oh.. looks like bunch of building ridging to nw.. going into gulf maybe ?

108 hours its a good 150 miles south of 6z

Actually the ridge is all but gone around the time of landfall. Hence the storm nearly stalls.

Looking nw

[caneseddy]

UKMET well west of prior run into Gulf!

Yep. Initial landfall over WPB and then ends up just south Port St. Joe.

[Aric Dunn]

UKMET well west of prior run into Gulf!

Were you really that surprised?

[beachman80]

Geez GFs is scary in that in a 24 hour stretch it goes from Melbourne to Orlando. That’s less than 60 miles. That’s a nightmare.

[Steve]

GFS about 30 miles due south from earlier run as it sits off the Florida coast. After 90hrs is the big question mark whether it stalls and sits, stalls and turns, or creeps inland moving west. Nobody knows.

Btw, I still think GFS is a little too far north. I think Miami to Jupiter still the ground zero point. GFS doesn't take the WSW dip like I think this is going to do.

GFS is coming around to what it should have shown the last several runs. There was some discussion last night about taking it with a grain of salt due to known biases - e.g. determination to break down western Atlantic ridging whenever it can and move the heat up and out quickly/efficiently. Some people seemed adamant that it should be considered as it runs. I disagreed and always will. If a racehorse is on bleeder medication, carrying additional weight or it's his first time out, you have to consider that before placing that bet. If you are diet conscious, you probably want to know whether your vegetables are organic or GMO.

Assuming it's going to come up somewhere around 81/82W based on the current 500mb run so far.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=120

[tolakram]

[supercane4867]

Maybe the 12z guidances can put an end to the OTS talks...

[MacTavish]

Uh oh.. looks like bunch of building ridging to nw.. going into gulf maybe ?

108 hours its a good 150 miles south of 6z

Actually the ridge is all but gone around the time of landfall. Hence the storm nearly stalls.

Looking nw

I see a sweeping shortwave coming across the great lakes. As the storm has begun drifting north around 120h.

[SoupBone]

The windshield wiper effect is very real. No one should be surprised. It'll probably swing back again next run.

[tolakram]

The windshield wiper effect is very real. No one should be surprised. It'll probably swing back again next run.

I'm half expecting the euro to now start heading north. I hate the idea of a landfall but it will be best if the models come into better agreement so people can finalize plans and get the heck out of the way.

[beachman80]

Wow the UKMET has really changed.

Goes through Palm Beach, exits in Sarasota and shoots NNW to Appalachicola. So much for stalling out.

[SunnyThoughts]

Is there a graphic for the UKIE?

[tolakram]

This is very similar to the euro solution now, a nightmare as it slows down and then crawls up the state.