ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Torgo]

A lot of the reason the GFS doesn’t dip WSW is it keeps it a bit weaker. 970-980mb is on the weaker end of the models. I def think there’s a correlation in many of the models in that the stronger it is, the more south it will be. The stronger storms want to dip this more WSW like Andrew and even Irma did when it dove into north Cuba a couple years ago.

GFS was quite a bit stronger than that at landfall (959 MB)

[beachman80]

Gettin real over in tampa. Gas and water shortages starting. People starting to panic at work with this latest update. It may slice across florida and linger over tampa flbefore headong north.

In Tampa, I'm most worried about this thing not so much slicing across the state, but getting into the SE Gulf. Florida is a unique state in its structure. Say for example it does exactly what the GFS does but makes landfall in Miami instead of Melbourne. Well, then it moves due west some 50 miles and it's in the SE Gulf and then drifts NNW which parallels the west coast. It wouldn't take much of a model change for it to do that.

[plasticup]

Gettin real over in tampa. Gas and water shortages starting. People starting to panic at work with this latest update. It may slice across florida and linger over tampa flbefore headong north.

In Tampa, I'm most worried about this thing not so much slicing across the state, but getting into the SE Gulf. Florida is a unique state in its structure. Say for example it does exactly what the GFS does but makes landfall in Miami instead of Melbourne. Well, then it moves due west some 50 miles and it's in the SE Gulf and then drifts NNW which parallels the west coast. It wouldn't take much of a model change for it to do that.

This is a very plausible scenario that I don't see people talking about. Lots of speculation about a 200 mile eastward shift (i.e. recurve) but just as plausible is a stronger-than-expected ridge and a 200 mile westward shift with restrengthening in the gulf.

[TallyTracker]

Gettin real over in tampa. Gas and water shortages starting. People starting to panic at work with this latest update. It may slice across florida and linger over tampa flbefore headong north.

In Tampa, I'm most worried about this thing not so much slicing across the state, but getting into the SE Gulf. Florida is a unique state in its structure. Say for example it does exactly what the GFS does but makes landfall in Miami instead of Melbourne. Well, then it moves due west some 50 miles and it's in the SE Gulf and then drifts NNW which parallels the west coast. It wouldn't take much of a model change for it to do that.

Also crossing the state down there would do little to reduce it’s intensity. Might only drop 1 category if it didn’t stall.

[beachman80]

Gettin real over in tampa. Gas and water shortages starting. People starting to panic at work with this latest update. It may slice across florida and linger over tampa flbefore headong north.

In Tampa, I'm most worried about this thing not so much slicing across the state, but getting into the SE Gulf. Florida is a unique state in its structure. Say for example it does exactly what the GFS does but makes landfall in Miami instead of Melbourne. Well, then it moves due west some 50 miles and it's in the SE Gulf and then drifts NNW which parallels the west coast. It wouldn't take much of a model change for it to do that.

This is a very plausible scenario that I don't see people talking about. Lots of speculation about a 200 mile eastward shift (i.e. recurve) but just as plausible is a stronger-than-expected ridge and a 200 mile westward shift with restrengthening in the gulf.

I remember Irma all too well. For the longest time it was an east storm. Then one model run and it turned from an east coast threat to a west coast threat. And it was only about a 50 mile shift. The makeup of the coast allows that to happen especially with a drifting cane. When they move slow, they get minds of their own. Look at Harvey. That thing just moved around where it wanted to move around.

[chris_fit]

12Z CMC so far...

[hurricaneCW]

Pretty brutal run by the GFS, it's strong too. The 959mb depiction could easily be 20-30mb lower in reality, models aren't the best with depicting real time intensity.

Best hope is still that the storm stalls 50 miles to the east.

[Weatherboy1]

Canadian landfall a bit further south (20 miles maybe) than last run. Looks like Jupiter landfall ...

[TheStormExpert]

Canadian landfall a bit further south (20 miles maybe) than last run. Looks like Jupiter landfall ...

Yes, sits and spins for a bit before getting ejected to the north right along the East Coast.

[Kohlecane]

OBX takes a nice hit with a strong TS/Cat 1 at 264

[HurricaneBelle]

With Fabian, we had TS winds for 36 hours, Cat 1 for 24 hours, and Cat 4 peak. The damage was unlike anything I've ever seen. I had never appreciate that the duration of wind makes such a difference.

This is why I can't stand it when people pooh-pooh strong tropical storms as well. "We get wind like that in our summer thunderstorms", they say. Yeah, for about a minute or two. Hours of even TS-force winds can cause serious damage, uproot trees, etc. It's a non-stop assault.

[kaystorm94]

So we are flying into Orlando on Wednesday, the 4th (Disney). Will this hurricane be out by then? I don't want to jump the gun and cancel our trip or move it. It has been planned for some time now. Flying from Houston to Orlando.

Thoughts?

[catskillfire51]

So we are flying into Orlando on Wednesday, the 4th (Disney). Will this hurricane be out by then? I don't want to jump the gun and cancel our trip or move it. It has been planned for some time now. Flying from Houston to Orlando.

Thoughts?

As stated in the discussion thread most would advise against it

[Blinhart]

So we are flying into Orlando on Wednesday, the 4th (Disney). Will this hurricane be out by then? I don't want to jump the gun and cancel our trip or move it. It has been planned for some time now. Flying from Houston to Orlando.

Thoughts?

As stated in the discussion thread most would advise against it

Yeah I would try to get postponement of the schedule that way everything is taken care of in Orlando area, there could be severe damage and no service going on at Disney/Universal parks. Also if I remember correctly they also use the parking lots of the parks for setting up recovery operations.

[Jonny]

So we are flying into Orlando on Wednesday, the 4th (Disney). Will this hurricane be out by then? I don't want to jump the gun and cancel our trip or move it. It has been planned for some time now. Flying from Houston to Orlando.

Thoughts?

Considering the possibility of being hit by a category 4 hurricane, I wouldn’t risk it.

They’ll likely cancel/postpone your flight and Disney World will be closed anyway.

[ronjon]

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 67.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2019 21.1N 67.1W WEAK
00UTC 30.08.2019 22.7N 68.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2019 24.2N 70.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2019 25.4N 72.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2019 26.0N 74.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2019 26.3N 76.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.5N 78.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.7N 80.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2019 27.2N 81.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 27.5N 82.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2019 28.0N 84.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2019 28.6N 84.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.6N 85.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12z UKMET now back into the GOM!

[pgoss11]

That 12z Gfs Run is brutal. Dorian just barely moves for several hours after landfall. The only positive take I can find is that it does take Dorian north after landfall and if Dorian is a little slower getting to the coast maybe the stall would be off shore. I am praying this happens for all my Florida peeps.

[crownweather]

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1167117608942002176

[Hurricane Jed]

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1167117608942002176

Kinda reminds me of Donna in 1960

[crownweather]

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1167117608942002176

Kinda reminds me of Donna in 1960

I thought the same thing. Also, 12Z Canadian is very similar with a big impact in Florida followed by it riding right up the East Coast.