Biscayne bay will interesting if this verifiesAric Dunn wrote:ronjon wrote:12z HWRF slightly south into Melbourne.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf®ion=05L&pkg=ref&runtime=2019082912&fh=102
just a tad farther south then the 6z run..
ATL: DORIAN - Models
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jlauderdal
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
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TheStormExpert
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Still can’t believe this is 5-6 days away from any potential Florida impact according to the Euro.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Interesting track shift on the ECM, may well see a lift towards the NW by the 120hrs run, though the weakness coming through to the north is really rather unimpressive so it may just slowing amble W/WSW from there.
Can't deny similarities to the ICON...
Can't deny similarities to the ICON...
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TheStormExpert
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
supercane4867 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Xfu61YC.png
Ever notice that the HWRF simulated IR always tries to make storms annular?
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StormingB81
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
About to make landfall on Andros Island, From the North East.. @ 102hrs
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Good grief. On the pay site ridge was mostly gone at 90 hours so it looks like almost no steering. This is moving SLOW.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
120hr Is wayyy south. It may completly miss the weakness and goes under the CONUS ridge then go all the way west to Texas???
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
if you remember just yesterday a lot of the ensemble members showed rather large wsw to sw dips..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
navgem a few days agoStormingB81 wrote:Geez Euro is WAY south!! Has anyone been that far south yet?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Well 120hrs decides to continue to slowly move this towards SE Florida. Its lining up very nicely with the ICON and HMON though, which is rather worrying...
As is the tendency for westward storms to end up being south of their forecast.
As is the tendency for westward storms to end up being south of their forecast.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
jlauderdal wrote:navgem a few days agoStormingB81 wrote:Geez Euro is WAY south!! Has anyone been that far south yet?
Icon too.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Euro is showing a Hurricane Andrew redux
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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