ATL: DORIAN - Models

[SoupBone]

The EURO looks like it's gonna scrape the Keys if it doesn't change course.

[KWT]

if you remember just yesterday a lot of the ensemble members showed rather large wsw to sw dips..

Historically the ICON is usually a pretty good indicator of what the ECM will do, I remember the old version of the model even back in the mid 2000s would often be a hint of what the ECM would show.

Sure enough, the 12z ICON really went big on the WSW motion and slow down.

Bahamas gets utterly raked.

Also, rather decent LP moving through the plains at 120hrs as well.

[AtlanticWind]

This is crazy,crawling toward S.F.

[Buck]

https://i.imgur.com/Xfu61YC.png

Ever notice that the HWRF simulated IR always tries to make storms annular?

Even if it's just a thing they do, that image is scary.

[Stormcenter]

That EURO track reminds me of......never mind I rather not say.

[tolakram]

Moving due west between 108 and 114 so perhaps the turn is happening.

[chris_fit]

Turned back to N of W @ 128

[p1nheadlarry]

At least Joaquin was in October and had troughs digging to take it elsewhere

[jlauderdal]

This is crazy,crawling toward S.F.

slow moving big hurricanes arent that unusual....hopefully the eruo doesnt verify but the ots idea is diminishing by the hour

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like Katrias track just farther east lol..

[cjrciadt]

That EURO track reminds me of......never mind I rather not say.

Kat.
I remember too that dive

[tolakram]

Yep, slightly nw between 114 and 120. Maue's site is slow to update.

[stormlover2013]

could miss florida on weatherbells at 132 hours, going to be close, lets see if it will get pushed back west

[Hurricaneman]

My thoughts are is this going to have a South of West dip like the Euro or is the dip not going to happen like the GFS we’ll know by Friday night or Saturday

[chris_fit]

Wow - NNW @ 132 hrs

[tolakram]

There it goes.

[LarryWx]

Skims coast near pompano Beach at 138 and then moves northward at 144 skimming near West Palm. Now going to go back offshore I think

[chris_fit]

[Aric Dunn]

[jlauderdal]

There it goes.

https://i.imgur.com/vaq0r2o.png

i will give you a central pressure reading from the eye around Christmas when we have something resembling infrastructure