ATL: DORIAN - Models

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: Look out, this may slow down or even stall.

[Steve]

Looks like a squeeze play gets it up north after meandering around SE FL. Note the rotation of the Atlantic Ridge behind it. That's strengthening as the trough north of Maine exits out. It doesn't really have anywhere to go but North or NNW along the coast. Could even be shunted westward/northwestward into the SEUS or wait for the next low which is just north of North Dakota at 168 to pull it out.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=168

[tolakram]

but, I don't think this is going to fully make it out, so my recurve confidence is still extremely low.

[HDGator]

Wow - Goodbye E Coast of FL if that track pans out - Yikes!!!

Yep, I don't envy the position that the NHC is in for the 5pm forecast.
There's not many good options considering the vast number of people being brought into play with that track.
The major models are threatening the majority of the population on the east coast of Florida
Their earning their pay with this hurricane.

[Aric Dunn]

it is very borderline getting trapped as well.
i mean like tittering .. that trough lifts out as well.

[OuterBanker]

Ok now. This is odd. The Euro seems to be headed for the Fl straights at 120, then a sharp nnw turn to landfall in Palm Beach at 144.
Where will it be at 168.

Stay tuned to "As the Storm Turns".

[sma10]

Skims coast near pompano Beach at 138 and then moves northward at 144 skimming near West Palm. Now going to go back offshore I think

5+ days out and it is literally on the beach. Not sure what kind of statement you can make about this ....

If this is the general path of Dorian you might as well through your hands up because it's entirely not predictable what the sensible weather will be.

[Stormcenter]

Well that’s what I meant. I guess.

Okay we all know this track will not pan out. It’s
much more likely Dorian misses Florida completely.

I disagree. My confidence in a recurve just before shore has risen slightly. Everyone harps on the GFS ridge bias and selectively forgets the Euro's left bias.

[KWT]

Sigh, this is getting frustrating.

You would think with such a slow down, Dorian would weaken due to upwelling.

I suspect with it moving that slowly there is certainly a chance it will upwell, but with such slow motion could see some very large totals over the Bahamas and S/C Florida.

[cjrciadt]

Hold on! A major cane here from Mon thru Thru!!?!?
I give the Euro a Mulligan on this run!

[chris_fit]

Scary thought, won't happen, but imagine that track ~150 miles to the W when it starts going N - Goodbye Naples, Ft Myers, Tampa

[CronkPSU]

Wow - Goodbye E Coast of FL if that track pans out - Yikes!!!

Yep, I don't envy the position that the NHC is in for the 5pm forecast.
There's not many good options considering the vast number of people being brought into play with that track.
The major models are threatening the majority of the population on the east coast of Florida
Their earning their pay with this hurricane.

probably will nudge south just a bit more but no major changes yet except maybe adding another 12 hours til landfall...they will be looking at the next runs and deciding then if it is a trend

[northjaxpro]

What the models are keen on, is that this is going to be a powerful hurricane. I am hoping some type of dry air or shear prevents this from strengthening. Stay safe in FL and take the flooding threat seriously. Water is the number one killer in these storms.

AMEN!! I am mortified thinking about the flooding potential Dorian could bring Just insane potential rainfall projections from the GFS

[ronjon]

its a week out folks - definitely won't verify. Throws a wrench in the NHC track guidance.

[KWT]

Also the ECM ensembles from the 00z also had an increasing number of runs heading to the north and this operational run looks like its doing something similar, but with the addition of that WSW motion and slow down.

[LarryWx]

Massive rains Jupiter to St Augustine so far as it barely moves near or just offshore FL NE coast.

3rd landfall Jax Beach! Now turned inland.

[StPeteMike]

Scary thought, won't happen, but imagine that track ~150 miles to the W when it starts going N - Goodbye Naples, Ft Myers, Tampa

There’s still a possibility.

[MacTavish]

The thing to remember is most of the models show some kind of recurve in the vicinity of Florida. It could happen on the west coast, up the middle of the state, or off the east coast. All things are possible at this point. Dont panic but be prepared.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Sigh, this is getting frustrating.

You would think with such a slow down, Dorian would weaken due to upwelling.

The computer models have a hard time taking up welling into account.

[northjaxpro]

What the models are keen on, is that this is going to be a powerful hurricane. I am hoping some type of dry air or shear prevents this from strengthening. Stay safe in FL and take the flooding threat seriously. Water is the number one killer in these storms.

AMEN!! I am mortified thinking about the flooding potential Dorian could bring. Just insane potential rainfall projections from the GFS.