ATL: DORIAN - Models

[gatorcane]

Also notice the Euro shows the storm growing in size as it hits South Florida and moves up the coastline

[Aric Dunn]

alrighty .. next model run cycle please.. lol

[KC7NEC]

The keyword we have been missing in the Dorian models so far is.....

Consensus

Hopefully, we can start to get some models to come together on something soon.

[TheProfessor]

HWRF sends Dorian back out into the NE GOM moving towards the Apalachicola area.

Where does it exit?

Looks like maybe 20-30 miles north of Tampa Bay, I'm not great with my Florida Geography.

[Pughetime12]

big thing to take from this is even with that trough its not enough to take it out. so its coming in somewhere likely cape canaveral south..

not only that.. looks like tis about to turn and go back offshore lol

As in landfall in Cape Canaveral or that’s as north as it will possibly land and south of that is also in play?

[SunnyThoughts]

Ensembles should be interesting.

[p1nheadlarry]

HWRF sends Dorian back out into the NE GOM moving towards the Apalachicola area.

Where does it exit?

Citrus County-ish. Amazing that by the time it would make a second landfall on the HWRF, the Euro is still offshore the Atlantic side of FL.

[AtlanticWind]

Hard to believe how different Ukmet Euro and GFS are at 120 hours
How does the NHC make a forecast out of this.

[sma10]

Maybe Dorian is the ultimate troll. He'll probably end up recurving east of the Bahamas and track between NC and Bermuda.

<<sarcasm>>

[HouTXmetro]

Is it out of the realm of possibility that Dorian could miss the weakness and get caught under the Southern plains High Pressure system sending it towards the Western Gulf? Just looking at the set up .

[Hurrilurker]

It hasn't been that long ago the models were showing landfall on Sunday night into Monday....now we are up to Wednesday. What a nightmare for Florida officials .

Yes, but it could actually be a good trend in that it gives them more time to get the word out and more time for people to prepare and/or get out.

[tolakram]

You have to wonder what data was picked up by the EURO on that run that caused it to be almost 24 hours or more slower than every other major model

Breaks the ridge down early, which slows it down. What I find odd is it sends Dorian SW, as if this is one of those epicly strong ridges, then poof, it's gone. Maybe a Promet can explain that?

[chris_fit]

Ensembles should be interesting.

Expecting at least a 1/3 of them to be OTS to be honest.... last three cycles have all trended more E

[HouTXmetro]

Hard to believe how different Ukmet Euro and GFS are at 120 hours
How does the NHC and a forecast out of this.

Average them out

[aperson]

Okay we all know this track will not pan out. It’s
much more likely Dorian misses Florida completely.

I disagree. My confidence in a recurve just before shore has risen slightly. Everyone harps on the GFS ridge bias and selectively forgets the Euro's left bias.

I know the ECMWF has had some pretty significant upgrades since last year including ocean coupling and some changes to bias in TC track.

See: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FU ... e+products

It has been found that the errors in forecast position and movement of tropical storms are:

for analysed location - on average about 50km.
for speed - on average 1.0-1.5kph slow.
for direction - tending to the right of track
If the steering flow is:

moderate or strong - the tropical storm moves realistically.
weak - the tropical storm moves slowly and more erratically, and especially so if a deep tropical storm.

I wasn't aware of the information on steering. It "overslowing" may be very relevant to this setup and would indicate that SFL impacts are more likely if that's the case here.

[sma10]

Hard to believe how different Ukmet Euro and GFS are at 120 hours
How does the NHC make a forecast out of this.

Excellent point they really are in totally different worlds. You'll probably see something along the lines of "in the longer term there is still significant spread among the models"

[BensonTCwatcher]

Lets hope this ECMWF does not verify. That's about as much real estate as a hurricane could ever chew through. Everyone from Miami to the Delmarva peninsula gets a strong TS or hurricane and the coast gets surge all the way up. Hell might as well be riding a bus up I-95.

[Hurrilurker]

big thing to take from this is even with that trough its not enough to take it out. so its coming in somewhere likely cape canaveral south..

not only that.. looks like tis about to turn and go back offshore lol

As in landfall in Cape Canaveral or that’s as north as it will possibly land and south of that is also in play?

I don't think you can rule anything out at this point. Everyone from the Florida Keys to GA/SC is still in play (and it's got the potential to rake across ALL of those if the setup is right). Plus the possibility it could cross Florida and enter the Gulf as well.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: Devastating rains would be a big story, if not THE biggest story, with it being a very slow mover. My maps have 12-14" in a long strip from Canaveral up through Jax metro to just south of Waycross. Gainesville gets 8". SAV area gets 6".

[SunnyThoughts]

Ensembles should be interesting.

Expecting at least a 1/3 of them to be OTS to be honest.... last three cycles have all trended more E

1/3 out to sea, 1/3 up the spine of Fla, maybe 1/3 into the gom (considering the wsw movement and the low latitude it attains before moving north?