ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Jed]

There's very recently been an unflagged 91kt SFMR reading come in as well. Winds definitely seem to be responding to the pressure drops now.

Picking up steam

[1900hurricane]

A 0.85 reduction on the boundary layer of this sonde also supports 85 kt.

[GeneratorPower]

One major reason why EVERYONE in Florida needs to still be paying attention on this, even those on the west coast who think they are out of the woods with a direct hit.....

If you go through the Irma graphics archive and stop it at 11am Thursday when it was north of Hispanola, the NHC projected the Euro scenario just 70 hours out before it made landfall. The storm ended up on the left edge of the cone hitting the west coast, not the east coast.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/I ... _with_line

Great example of track changes several days out.
The news media doesn’t help this situation.

SW Florida taking it pretty seriously. Gas lines and gas gone. Shutters broken out at one neighbor. Something seems really ominous about this and I’m not a dramatic poster. I think this is an Andrew for some place in FL.

[Kingarabian]

What was the lowest that the NOAA plane reported compared to the Airforce plane?

[Kosmo Kitty]

Flying out of FLL Sunday afternoon. This is not looking good.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Very impressive that it's still deepening despite taking hits from shear. Eastern portion of the system is flattening as well now, evidence of some shear.

https://i.imgur.com/MY2hqho.jpg

Well whatever was causing it is lessening

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=wv-mid

[Blown Away]

Seems like FL landfall has been 96 hours out for days...

[1900hurricane]

There's very recently been an unflagged 91kt SFMR reading come in as well. Winds definitely seem to be responding to the pressure drops now.

The data looks more jaggy and jumpy around that reading though. That's one I'm skeptical of.

[Evil Jeremy]

Flying out of FLL Sunday afternoon.

No you're not.

[Snowman67]

Looks like it's starting to really ramp up.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[jlauderdal]

Flying out of FLL Sunday afternoon.

No you're not.

Lol, the way this thing is slowing he might be able to go on sunday.

[Hurricane Jed]

The slowing down certainly gives Floridians more time to prep and evacuate
However I implore people to go ahead and continue prepping or start their prep if they haven't all ready because this isnt something Id roll the dice with

[jlauderdal]

Seems like FL landfall has been 96 hours out for days...

Lets keep it that way until a trough comes roaring out if the pacific northwest

[jlauderdal]

The slowing down certainly gives Floridians more time to prep and evacuate
However I implore people to go ahead and continue prepping or start their prep if they haven't all ready because this isnt something Id roll the dice with

I have been impressed with south florida preps..15 years ago you didnt see it this far in advance

[hipshot]

Looks like it's starting to really ramp up.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

It looks like the shear from the southwest is beginning to decrease from the decrease in flattening on that side.

[Kingarabian]

Very impressive that it's still deepening despite taking hits from shear. Eastern portion of the system is flattening as well now, evidence of some shear.

https://i.imgur.com/MY2hqho.jpg

Well whatever was causing it is lessening

[url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=wv-mid[url]

[url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_wv-mid_05L_201908300117.jpg?2282920[url]

It's clearly strengthening/strengthened as Recon indicates. But when I see this satellite image, I see dry air intrusion, outflow becoming restricted, and some shear affecting the CDO. Dorian does as he pleases.

[arizona_sooner]

Well my wife and I are scheduled into Miami from the southern Caribbean on Saturday night and then out of Miami on Sunday afternoon. If the flights aren't cancelled, I think we will make it. Otherwise probably not. We'll see....

[floridasun78]

few gas station were close no gas here in miami

[Hurricane Jed]

Very impressive that it's still deepening despite taking hits from shear. Eastern portion of the system is flattening as well now, evidence of some shear.

https://i.imgur.com/MY2hqho.jpg

Well whatever was causing it is lessening

[url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=wv-mid[url]

[url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_wv-mid_05L_201908300117.jpg?2282920[url]

It's clearly strengthening/strengthened as Recon indicates. But when I see this satellite image, I see dry air intrusion, outflow becoming restricted, and some shear affecting the CDO. Dorian does as he pleases.

TC's are weird some can take the shear and dry air others cant

[Hammy]

Well whatever was causing it is lessening

[url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=wv-mid[url]

[url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_wv-mid_05L_201908300117.jpg?2282920[url]

It's clearly strengthening/strengthened as Recon indicates. But when I see this satellite image, I see dry air intrusion, outflow becoming restricted, and some shear affecting the CDO. Dorian does as he pleases.

TC's are weird some can take the shear and dry air others cant

Seems like mid vs upper level--I think Matthew for example was undergoing 30kt shear when it became a 5.