ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF

[ronjon]

Interesting on the ensembles that they have a strong core of runs (shown by the L's) that mimic the UKMET and HWRF tracks

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: good number of Carolina skimmers but I think there are more than that that recurve sharply and never landfall. A SE US miss cannot be written off just yet! I'm certainly not predicting that but wouldn't that be amazing?

[caneman]

:uarrow: Interesting on the ensembles that they have a strong core of runs (shown by the L's) that mimic the UKMET and HWRF tracks

Ronjon
What does Ukie show for wind at landfall and then over Tampa. Thanks

[alienstorm]

Notice ensembles just between Palm Beach and the Bahamas


Starts tracking WNW NW

[LarryWx]

I'm roughly estimating that 30-40% of the 51 12Z Euro ensembles recurve sharply enough to not even landfall in the SE US!

[tarheelprogrammer]

I'm roughly estimating that 30-40% of the 51 12Z Euro ensembles recurve sharply enough to not even landfall in the SE US!

Which would be great news for the US. Let us hope it continues.

[Blown Away]

NHC has Dorian making landfall at 96 hours, so I don't think he will be hanging around of Palm Beach at 132 hours...

[alienstorm]

3 clusters inland, along with and just off Florida some in the NE Gulf and some off the Carolinas

[tolakram]

In my opinion landfall time will be changing, the track has to be slowed down.

[Evil Jeremy]

"Consensus"

[cjrciadt]

In my opinion landfall time will be changing, the track has to be slowed down.

Yup add 12 hrs at least

[SFLcane]

This is just to close either way would put some crazy winds and rain on the coast even it brushes.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167159060627644417

[Highteeld]

Dorian broke SHIPS

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 22.1 67.4

** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -2.9 999.00 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.38 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 420.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.50 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

[MacTavish]

Remember early this week when cooler heads were saying, "calm down everybody, we'll know a lot more Thursday".

I think we know a lot LESS lmao

That was more in relation to the possible land interaction though

[Blown Away]

In my opinion landfall time will be changing, the track has to be slowed down.

I doubt it, the TVCN is onshore at 96 hours and stalls... NHC not buying Dorian being around off Palm Beach in 123 hours like ensembles say...

[psyclone]

In my opinion landfall time will be changing, the track has to be slowed down.

Agree. slowdowns are a first step to a non landfall which now has some respectable model support. and even before that new recurve support, for several cycles the system's endpoint has been stubbornly stuck refusing to gain longitude... to me that was the first tell that something was "off"...and now it really is. Looking forward to the 5 pm advisory and it's nice to at least have a get of jail free space or 2 spinning on the wheel of misfortune.

[Evil Jeremy]

I could see the 4 day point being nudged slightly south, and the 5 day point nudged slightly east at 5pm, but who knows. I'm sure NHC is migraine central right now.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It looks like the stronger it gets, the more likely it is to head OTS. At least when looking at the EPS members.

[jfk08c]

In my opinion landfall time will be changing, the track has to be slowed down.

Agree. slowdowns are a first step to a non landfall which now has some respectable model support. and even before that new recurve support, for several cycles the system's endpoint has been stubbornly stuck refusing to gain longitude... to me that was the first tell that something was "off"...and now it really is. Looking forward to the 5 pm advisory and it's nice to at least have a get of jail free space or 2 spinning on the wheel of misfortune.

Which models, other than the latest Euro run, support a non landfalling system?