ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

Flying out of FLL Sunday afternoon. This is not looking good.

I’m looking into flying into FLL Saturday or Sunday morning, still haven’t made a definitive decision yet, parents live in Boca Raton, I’d hate to take a 12 hour flight for nothing ...ugh!

[aperson]

Eyewall lightning going up again. Seems like it does this and strengthens, then gets disrupted, then the cycle repeats.

[La Sirena]

Well my wife and I are scheduled into Miami from the southern Caribbean on Saturday night and then out of Miami on Sunday afternoon. If the flights aren't cancelled, I think we will make it. Otherwise probably not. We'll see....

Wow, that’s going to be a close call! Hope it all works out.....in the meantime enjoy your vacay

[tropicwatch]

The last two AF vortex message locations put Dorian right on the forecast track.

[HurricaneBelle]

Flying out of FLL Sunday afternoon. This is not looking good.

I’m looking into flying into FLL Saturday or Sunday morning, still haven’t made a definitive decision yet, parents live in Boca Raton, I’d hate to take a 12 hour flight for nothing ...ugh!

Hey, at least your parents will be happy to see you! ("you never write, you never call")

[jlauderdal]

few gas station were close no gas here in miami

Gas is getting tough to find, i purchased 50 gallons yesterday for the generator without a problem

[jlauderdal]

Flying out of FLL Sunday afternoon. This is not looking good.

I’m looking into flying into FLL Saturday or Sunday morning, still haven’t made a definitive decision yet, parents live in Boca Raton, I’d hate to take a 12 hour flight for nothing ...ugh!

Who could pass up a chance to visit boca, chances are increasing by the hour boca will see hurricane force winds

[Aric Dunn]

who is keeping recon fixes against nhc/model tracks ?

[CrazyC83]

It's clearly strengthening/strengthened as Recon indicates. But when I see this satellite image, I see dry air intrusion, outflow becoming restricted, and some shear affecting the CDO. Dorian does as he pleases.

TC's are weird some can take the shear and dry air others cant

Seems like mid vs upper level--I think Matthew for example was undergoing 30kt shear when it became a 5.

Upper level shear isn't nearly as disruptive, especially to weaker storms that don't reach that high into the atmosphere. Mid-level shear is deadly. It seems the shear is mostly aloft right now.

[AdamFirst]

few gas station were close no gas here in miami

Gas is getting tough to find, i purchased 50 gallons yesterday for the generator without a problem

Every station I passed has plenty of activity going on. even the stations that are usually empty. No line at the Shell station next to my job, who conveniently turned their price sign off and was charging 25 cents more than the Speedway down the road

Screw you, gouger, I have fuel rewards

[Bocadude85]

Flying out of FLL Sunday afternoon. This is not looking good.

I’m looking into flying into FLL Saturday or Sunday morning, still haven’t made a definitive decision yet, parents live in Boca Raton, I’d hate to take a 12 hour flight for nothing ...ugh!

Who could pass up a chance to visit boca, chances are increasing by the hour boca will see hurricane force winds

Yes I am not liking the model trends, I hate the thought of putting up hurricane shutters but they are going to need help with it, I’m going to see how the 0z models look, if they continue to zero in on S.Fla I’ll be booking the flight.

[jlauderdal]

I’m looking into flying into FLL Saturday or Sunday morning, still haven’t made a definitive decision yet, parents live in Boca Raton, I’d hate to take a 12 hour flight for nothing ...ugh!

Who could pass up a chance to visit boca, chances are increasing by the hour boca will see hurricane force winds

Yes I am not liking the model trends, I hate the thought of putting up hurricane shutters but they are going to need help with it, I’m going to see how the 0z models look, if they continue to zero in on S.Fla I’ll be booking the flight.

Good work, have to help your parents plus you might get a once in a lifetime hurricane

[gatorcane]

Levi with a new video:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[T-man]

few gas station were close no gas here in miami

Gas is getting tough to find, i purchased 50 gallons yesterday for the generator without a problem

Every station I passed has plenty of activity going on. even the stations that are usually empty. No line at the Shell station next to my job, who conveniently turned their price sign off and was charging 25 cents more than the Speedway down the road

Screw you, gouger, I have fuel rewards

Report the gouger, they have an app for that

[HDGator]

Flying out of FLL Sunday afternoon. This is not looking good.

I’m looking into flying into FLL Saturday or Sunday morning, still haven’t made a definitive decision yet, parents live in Boca Raton, I’d hate to take a 12 hour flight for nothing ...ugh!

That's a tough decision. I had hoped we would have some better consensus by now but we don't. In the past 24 hours the models have given us the entire east coast of Florida in the danger zone and the interior of the peninsula sharing the same.
I'm sitting here in Northern Palm Beach County having to make some decisions and one has been made. I'm hitting the road to Orlando to fetch the daughter from UCF first thing tomorrow morning trying to beat the mob evacuation. We're going to try and safely stuff her car in one of the garages on an upper floor shielded from potential wind and bring her home with the important stuff. At least I have one less car to worry about in a major storm and mom doesn't have to worry about remote daughter anymore.

As far as your parents in Boca Raton, I would have said 2 days ago they looked to be in better odds of being clear but today nobody can say.
Tough position to be in but you've been here long enough to make the right one.

[Sciencerocks]

Outflow is becoming less restricted and "cdo" is becoming rounder with intense convection around the eye. Both signs of more favorable upper levels and this will lead to the strengthening of our cyclone.

[Sciencerocks]

Dorian will probably become a major hurricane within the next 12 hours as the ULL is backing off to the west and becoming an enhancer of outflow.

[GeneratorPower]

Levi with a new video:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

My biggest takeaway was Lake O could have a lot of rain. Showing almost two days of a hurricane parked nearby. That could be feet of rain. Dike could have issues.

[Kazmit]

Cat 2 at 11pm? It's certainly borderline.

[Steve]

Yeah science, it is looking good for where it’s at. I’m thinking 72 hours people will be using their most monstrous type descriptive terms. Dorian always had the look of a system that would explode into a super scary looking system as it came up into the 20’s north and certainly continue to deepen at least through 35N or so (subject to mature system fluctuations and ERc’s).