ATL: DORIAN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20020
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3021 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:51 pm

Trend
Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3022 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:52 pm

Ridge weakening rapidly at 66 hours. I expect a large shift north this run. Perhaps Jacksonville or Florida/GA border.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3023 Postby jasons2k » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:52 pm

I’m on my mobile so I can’t moderate the thread right now but keep the posts to the models and stop the bickering. If you have an issue with a post, submit a report and a mod will take care of it. Don’t take up this thread with your own comments trying to police the thread. I will be deleting posts later.

Thanks for your cooperation.
1 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20020
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3024 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:54 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6415
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3025 Postby LarryWx » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:54 pm

Based on hour 72, I think the 18Z GFS is going to come in to FL north of the 12Z landfall.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3026 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:55 pm

Here you go Jason. The low predicted in the Western Gulf at 120 on the Icon we were just talking about is on the map west of Dorian. It’s been there for a while
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid
1 likes   
Top
beachman80

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3027 Postby beachman80 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:55 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Ridge weakening rapidly at 66 hours. I expect a large shift north this run. Perhaps Jacksonville or Florida/GA border.


Don’t see it weakening from what I’m seeing. Looks like it even dips it a little to the WSW at 78 hrs.
1 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3028 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:57 pm

GFS has that upper low essentially going straight west now.. weird..
Image
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20020
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3029 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:58 pm

Slow movement

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3030 Postby Portastorm » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:59 pm

WARNING!

Building off of Jason's post ... listen folks, cool it with the rude emojis and posts saying stuff without any data or factual support! I have deleted those posts as well as related ones. I appreciate those of you calling for civility and restraint.

This is the model thread where we discuss models related to the storm. Comments without any data or factual support will be deleted and three-day vacations from the board will be given if it continues.
4 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Top
User avatar
Dylan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 338
Age: 31
Joined: Mon May 31, 2010 9:50 am
Location: New Orleans, LA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3031 Postby Dylan » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:59 pm

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1167189613368266754


1 likes   
Georges('98), Allison('01), Isidore('02), Lili('02), Frances('04) Ivan('04), Cindy('05), Katrina('05), Rita('05), Gustav('08), Isaac('12), Matthew('16), Harvey('17), Irma('17), Nate ('17), Ida ('21).
Top
beachman80

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3032 Postby beachman80 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:59 pm

Definitely noticeably more SE at 90 hours.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15456
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3033 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:00 pm

If there is any good consensus among the models is that Dorian will over the northern Bahamas Sunday evening, all within a 50-60 mile radius. So we are getting some where, what happens from here is where they make it difficult.
2 likes   
Top
LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6415
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3034 Postby LarryWx » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:00 pm

LarryWx wrote:Based on hour 72, I think the 18Z GFS is going to come in to FL north of the 12Z landfall.


Nope, I’m wrong as the 18Z GFS is actually going to come in south of the 12Z
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 42
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:
Contact Hammy

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3035 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:01 pm

LarryWx wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Based on hour 72, I think the 18Z GFS is going to come in to FL north of the 12Z landfall.


Nope, I’m wrong as the 18Z GFS is actually going to come in south of the 12Z


Looks almost identical to Jeanne in 2004 at this point.
5 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3036 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:02 pm

Wow. Correction to my previous post. It appears that Dorian is being influenced fairly heavily by the ULL to its west in this run. It appears to pull it away from the ridge as the ridge breaks down.
1 likes   
Top
KC7NEC
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 162
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:01 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3037 Postby KC7NEC » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:02 pm

In the 18z GFS 90hr frame, the low in the GoM seems to be starting to block the west movement. Is this what is going to cause the earlier North turn?
0 likes   
// Opinions are my own, I am not a Meteorologist. Consult the NHC or Local NWS and Emergency Management for current information in your area. //
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3038 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:02 pm

Oh BOY!! :eek: The GFS looks to be caving south!
2 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3039 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:03 pm

102 hours straight west into west palm.. GFS shifts south again..
2 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15456
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3040 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:03 pm

Wow, 18z GFS seems to head straight west towards WPB.
1 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests