ATL: DORIAN - Models

[gatorcane]

That is a pretty significant shift south by the 18Z GFS.

[supercane4867]

[beachman80]

Big change in GFS. It is plowing due west with no hint of north movement as it makes landfall. About 50 miles south of 12z landfall. Close to Jupiter.

These model changes are nuts.

[FLpanhandle91]

108 hours. Landfall in West Palm Beach as a strong 3/weak 4.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS starting to show that WSW bend the ECMWF showed.

I believe the UKMET has been showing this bend for days, so kudos to that model for sniffing that out first if that happens.

[Kazmit]

Actually turns WSW for a little before landfall.

[NDG]

So 18z GFS, 18z ICON, 12z Euro & 12z UKMET says south FL is not out of the woods by no means!!!!

[TheStormExpert]

WSW from 102-108 hrs. into NE PBC.

[gatorcane]

Oh no! There is the WSW bend that the other models namely the Euro/UK/ICON have been insisting

[tolakram]

UKMet was the very first model to show the south hook, was it not?

[La Sirena]

Big change in GFS. It is plowing due west with no hint of north movement as it makes landfall. About 50 miles south of 12z landfall. Close to Jupiter.

These model changes are nuts.

It almost seems like the GFS is somewhat following the Euro but the one who’s nailing it is the UK!

[catskillfire51]

UKMet was the very first model to show the south hook, was it not?

Was it ukmet or the icon?

[beachman80]

Big change in GFS. It is plowing due west with no hint of north movement as it makes landfall. About 50 miles south of 12z landfall. Close to Jupiter.

These model changes are nuts.

It almost seems like the GFS is somewhat following the Euro but the one who’s nailing it is the UK!

Well unlike the Euro it brings it well inland. The question is will it put it back in the Gulf?

[Hammy]

Seems like the Euro is the outlier for now, thanks to the much slower movement on that model.

[supercane4867]

looks very intense

[will759227]

https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1167189613368266754

weird. the 18gfs doesn't look like the gfs in this picture... gfs looks to go below tampa.

[Ritzcraker]

UKMet was the very first model to show the south hook, was it not?

Was it ukmet or the icon?

ICON showed sharp westwardly movement first. UKMET showed the southward hook first from what I remember.

[Kazmit]

The eye goes right over Lake Okeechobee!

[beachman80]

At 126 hours the 18z GFS is almost a full 100-150 miles south of the 12z run.

[jfk08c]

18z starting the northwestward movement after passing Lake O at 120