ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[lando]

The first serious impact of Dorian will be felt in the Northern Bahamas. Folks in Freeport on Grand Bahama need to be ready for perhaps one of the most powerful storms they have seen. They have had a reprieve the past couple years, but still have plenty of business closed from previous storms.

[Blinhart]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

So slowly the Cat 5 chances are getting higher.

[Patricia]

Some of my extended family live on the barrier island in Vero Beach. I think they should evacuate. When do the freeways start getting jammed?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_intensity_latest.png

So slowly the Cat 5 chances are getting higher.

I won't be surprised if Dorian makes a run at Cat. five. As I pointed out in my previous post the textbook structure of a very powerful hurricane is there already.

[Hurrilurker]

The first serious impact of Dorian will be felt in the Northern Bahamas. Folks in Freeport on Grand Bahama need to be ready for perhaps one of the most powerful storms they have seen. They have had a reprieve the past couple years, but still have plenty of business closed from previous storms.

Yes, part of the Bahamas is really going to get hammered, that much is clear. But if this early west turn trend continues, it's extremely bad news for Nassau, where almost 300,000 people live.

[johngaltfla]

Some of my extended family live on the barrier island in Vero Beach. I think they should evacuate. When do the freeways start getting jammed?

Tomorrow. Do not be surprised if the orders go out to evacuate within 24 hours.

[Blinhart]

Some of my extended family live on the barrier island in Vero Beach. I think they should evacuate. When do the freeways start getting jammed?

It all depends on when voluntary evacuations are suggested, and with it being a holiday weekend, the highways will have more traffic than normal already.

[Nimbus]

Is that the low off tx/mex that some models show?

No, it's right next to Dorian to its southwest. (Or it was to its southwest the last time I looked.) Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it's the main factor controlling the direction of Dorian's current motion.

I thought it might of been those storms over the Keys right now.

The ULL just to the west of Dorian is beginning to fill in and the thunderstorms just south of the Texas panhandle haven't reached the coast yet. A stall scenario about 100 miles off the east coast of Florida might not be too bad. Dorian is almost due to start rolling WNW but RI could cause it to jog back NW.

[KC7NEC]

Some of my extended family live on the barrier island in Vero Beach. I think they should evacuate. When do the freeways start getting jammed?

Tomorrow. Do not be surprised if the orders go out to evacuate within 24 hours.

I expect NHC to add some watches in the next advisory for at least the Bahamas. This will really set things in motion. We could see them start evacs in very vulnerable coastal areas such as barrier islands announced tomorrow night and in effect Saturday morning

[Hurrilurker]

Some of my extended family live on the barrier island in Vero Beach. I think they should evacuate. When do the freeways start getting jammed?

I personally would be getting out of anything on the east coast of Florida now, but even if they wait for evacuations, I would have the car gassed up and packed with all supplies, clothes, etc. and ready to roll out the second it's needed. Research hotels to the north and south (still don't know which way it will go). You don't want to hear the order and then figure out how to get ready.

[Yellow Evan]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_intensity_latest.png

So slowly the Cat 5 chances are getting higher.

Considering this has Recon, Cat 5 is a very real possibility and has been for two days. Cat 5 at landfall is less likely though due to eyewall cycles and other dynamics.

[craptacular]

hopefully, we get a least one more pass to maybe confirm it.

They are lining up for a W-E or SW-NE pass (#5), and the schedule lists them on station for another 1.5 hours. So, maybe two more if they decide to get a final one heading back west.

[Blinhart]

I know if I lived South of Daytona on the East Coast of Florida on barrier islands or in a mobile home or any home built prior to 1992 (within 10 miles of the coast) I would definitely be doing my final preparations in the morning and then heading north to like Atlanta or Columbus, Ga.

[Evil Jeremy]

I know if I lived South of Daytona on the East Coast of Florida on barrier islands or in a mobile home or any home built prior to 1992 (within 10 miles of the coast) I would definitely be doing my final preparations in the morning and then heading north to like Atlanta or Columbus, Ga.

I guess one benefit of the storm slowing down and landfall being pushed back a day and a half is that it does give people more time to evacuate.

[craptacular]

2nd to 4th VDM from AF recon gives motion of 295 degrees.

[Aric Dunn]

This is hard to justify a trochoidal wobble. if this pass from recon is showing the same.. then expect the 6z and 12 models to respond... any recurves east of florida will likely be out the door.
12 to 24 hours early on the turn.. assuming it stays on this heading..

[Hurricaneman]

I’m getting a feeling that an analog could be Donna 1960 except 50miles farther north

[caneseddy]

This is hard to justify a trochoidal wobble. if this pass from recon is showing the same.. then expect the 6z and 12 models to respond... any recurves east of florida will likely be out the door.
12 to 24 hours early on the turn.. assuming it stays on this heading..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF300-1605A-DORIAN.png

John Morales on NBC 6 earlier tonight mentioned that it looked like it was beginning the turn

[jdray]

08/30 0Z GFS shows an expensive scenario.

South Fla, curve to Tampa, hit Orlando, and end up in Jacksonville.

[WeatherEmperor]

This is hard to justify a trochoidal wobble. if this pass from recon is showing the same.. then expect the 6z and 12 models to respond... any recurves east of florida will likely be out the door.
12 to 24 hours early on the turn.. assuming it stays on this heading..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF300-1605A-DORIAN.png

John Morales on NBC 6 earlier tonight mentioned that it looked like it was beginning the turn

Is this the same John Morales that a couple of days ago said Dorian would be just a weak system at most coming our way?


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