ATL: DORIAN - Models

[will759227]

I throw up my hands, these models are changing every 6 hours... and then the euro huge change.

[La Sirena]

Big change in GFS. It is plowing due west with no hint of north movement as it makes landfall. About 50 miles south of 12z landfall. Close to Jupiter.

These model changes are nuts.

It almost seems like the GFS is somewhat following the Euro but the one who’s nailing it is the UK!

Well unlike the Euro it brings it well inland. The question is will it put it back in the Gulf?

That’s certainly one of the million dollar questions! Did ICON and UK both send it out to the GOM ?

[MetroMike]

Up the spine of the state?

[AtlanticWind]

I keep thinking this can't get any worse
Then GFS stalls it over lake ockeechobe

[KC7NEC]

With the GFS taking the South solution we still don't have any consensus between the major models. A few have followed that South but there are still others that turn early and go North

[MetroMike]

I keep thinking this can't get any worse
Then GFS stalls it over lake ockeechobe

I don't see the stall.

[will759227]

https://imgur.com/57jC8s3

[USTropics]

Technically the ICON has shown a SW dive over the entirety of the model's runs since Sunday (with a few runs diving SW into Cuba). It was also the first model to pickup on Dorian moving east of PR (12 straight runs).

[SFLcane]

And the GFS has caved oh my SFL...Euro, GFS, Ukmet

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I throw up my hands, these models are changing every 6 hours... and then the euro huge change.

Because the strength and placement of the incoming ridge (for later in the period) is still in question, frustrating I know.

As an aside, I can't help but laugh when normies (people who do not immerse themselves in the weather and models as we do here) lecture me that the world will end according to computer models in twelve soon to be eleven years. I'm like "really, do tell".

[AtlanticWind]

I keep thinking this can't get any worse
Then GFS stalls it over lake ockeechobe

I don't see the stall.

Ok moves it very very slowly

[beachman80]

It almost seems like the GFS is somewhat following the Euro but the one who’s nailing it is the UK!

Well unlike the Euro it brings it well inland. The question is will it put it back in the Gulf?

That’s certainly one of the million dollar questions! Did ICON and UK both send it out to the GOM ?

Yup they do

[will759227]

[Aric Dunn]

Almost back in the gulf.

The shortwave is not really there anymore.

[johngaltfla]

Technically the ICON has shown a SW dive over the entirety of the model's runs since Sunday (with a few runs diving SW into Cuba). It was also the first model to pickup on Dorian moving east of PR (12 straight runs).

ICON and UKMET have been very consistent. I will be impressed if they nail this storm's path this far out and new GFS and Euro do not.

[Ritzcraker]

Did the 18z models ingest the upper air data Gulfstream sampled, or do we have to wait for 00z?

[AutoPenalti]

Umm, GFS lost the shortwave. Where did it go???

[TorSkk]

Did the 18z models ingest the upper air data Gulfstream sampled, or do we have to wait for 00z?

We have to wait

[sma10]

UKMet was the very first model to show the south hook, was it not?

Yes it was. Ironically, its 12z run today was the first run where the dip disappeared. Lol

[Aric Dunn]

Did the 18z models ingest the upper air data Gulfstream sampled, or do we have to wait for 00z?

Im assuming so at least partially. I beleive its automatically as it comes in. So whatever data is there at the tine is used