ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1167293012931727360

[wx98]

About to get a SW-NE pass in the next 10 minutes

[WeatherOrKnot]

What can the earlier turn (provided it verifies) do to the track?

[ConvergenceZone]

What can the earlier turn (provided it verifies) do to the track?

if it turns North quicker than currently anticipated(finds a weakness in the ridge), it could either hug the coastline or remain offshore. Even the weather channel said tonight that remaining offshore is still a possibility, mostly due to the increasingly offshore ensembles of the euro, and the operational euro just hugging the east coast of florida

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Thursday 6:36:54pm to Friday 12:30:54am AST:



From:
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... =750&y=819

[bamajammer4eva]

Uh-Oh The NHC 'Cone' seems to be getting eaten up by a circle!

[Hammy]

Uh-Oh The NHC 'Cone' seems to be getting eaten up by a circle!

https://media.giphy.com/media/l50Qb9OzGEhrFSvvsz/giphy.gif

I don't think I've ever seen the track just get shorter and shorter with each advisory like this before.

Also Dorian proving yet again that satellite appearance can only go so far--I'd think it was barely a hurricane right now if not for actual measurements.

[tropicwatch]

A wobble a little northward according to latest pass it looks like but Dorian is a little west of forecast track.

[Astromanía]

It is really an ugly cat 2 hurricane but well we have recon, in EPAC this would be a TS maybe a cat 1 at best but not more based only on dvorak.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1167300182934818818

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1167300933782360065

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1167274612796866560

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: It is really an ugly cat 2 hurricane but well we have recon, in EPAC this would be a TS maybe a cat 1 at best but not more based only on dvorak.

SAB is at T4.5 so probably 75-80 without Recon.

[craptacular]

A wobble a little northward according to latest pass it looks like but Dorian is a little west of forecast track.

Yeah, even with that last pass finding the center a little further north, it still works out to 301 degrees from the 2nd to the 5th pass of this mission, when the last advisory had the motion at 325.

[SoupBone]

Why does he look squished from NW to SE?

[Kat5]

Why does he look squished from NW to SE?

Interaction with the ridge

[Aric Dunn]

Why does he look squished from NW to SE?

Interaction with the ridge

being pulled to the wnw by the upper low. which looks like its causing it to turn earlier..

it is pretty clear the ull is pulling to the wnw

that and that upper low is really shooting west to soon wsw.

[Tailspin]

:uarrow: It is really an ugly cat 2 hurricane but well we have recon, in EPAC this would be a TS maybe a cat 1 at best but not more based only on dvorak.

SAB is at T4.5 so probably 75-80 without Recon.

Are you sure about that with adt under T4. 3.7 / 989.0mb/ 59.0kt

[Hammy]

Why does he look squished from NW to SE?

Interaction with the ridge

being pulled to the wnw by the upper low. which looks like its causing it to turn earlier..

it is pretty clear the ull is pulling to the wnw

that and that upper low is really shooting west to soon wsw.

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/08/29/22.gif

Looks like it's inducing some southerly shear as well. Any chance that could keep it from strengthening further?

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't know everyone. This is really starting to look scary. Once that ULL is out of the way, it's got nothing to hinder development. We're going to be looking at a pretty intense storm hitting Florida.