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ATL: DORIAN - Models
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Dylan
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
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johngaltfla
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:Almost back in the gulf.
The shortwave is not really there anymore.
GFS just a tad north of UKMET and further inland. I think the southern movements of the models can be almost called a trend soon.
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FLpanhandle91
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brock berlin
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
I think we can all agree the 18Z GFS is junk, the FV3 has been a disaster.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
tolakram wrote:UKMet was the very first model to show the south hook, was it not?
Yes and ICON also on a westerly track on a lower latitude than others.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
The Ukmet has been impressing the he!! Out me the last few years. One of my go to's now
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
brock berlin wrote:I think we can all agree the 18Z GFS is junk, the FV3 has been a disaster.
Not really man. It just caved to a path that joined all the other globals.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
caneman wrote:The Ukmet has been impressing the he!! Out me the last few years. One of my go to's now
Disagree. Oops meant to copy and paste another comment. The only outlier now is the Euro
Last edited by caneman on Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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catskillfire51
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
caneman wrote:caneman wrote:The Ukmet has been impressing the he!! Out me the last few years. One of my go to's now
Disagree. The only outlier now is the Euro
I wouldn’t call it an outlier either they are all showing a similar trend, the days to come will tighten that trend and we will get a consensus.
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
brock berlin wrote:I think we can all agree the 18Z GFS is junk, the FV3 has been a disaster.
Based on what? It's now falling into agreement with UKMET, ECMWF, and others. Are those other models also junk?
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Stormcenter
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Seems like with every model run Dorian keeps
on moving a little further south and west before it hooks north....it should be a little concerning for the Northern GOM folks. IMO
on moving a little further south and west before it hooks north....it should be a little concerning for the Northern GOM folks. IMO
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brock berlin
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:brock berlin wrote:I think we can all agree the 18Z GFS is junk, the FV3 has been a disaster.
Not really man. It just caved to a path that joined all the other globals.
I think the Euro's eastern solution makes a lot more sense.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Yikes, the GFS now rakes half the east coast after pummeling Florida. These model swings have been crazy.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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hohnywx
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
caneman wrote:caneman wrote:The Ukmet has been impressing the he!! Out me the last few years. One of my go to's now
Disagree. The only outlier now is the Euro
Did you just disagree with yourself
But yes, the UKMET is a stellar model. It had a few coupes last winter in the northeast as well. Statistically, I believe it is #2 behind the Euro.
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catskillfire51
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
brock berlin wrote:AxaltaRacing24 wrote:brock berlin wrote:I think we can all agree the 18Z GFS is junk, the FV3 has been a disaster.
Not really man. It just caved to a path that joined all the other globals.
I think the Euro's eastern solution makes a lot more sense.
Any data to back this?
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hohnywx
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
brock berlin wrote:I think we can all agree the 18Z GFS is junk, the FV3 has been a disaster.
Disagree. GFS has slowly been coming in line with the consensus all day.
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SunnyThoughts
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Stormcenter wrote:Seems like with every model run Dorian keeps
on moving a little further south and west before it hooks north....it should be a little concerning for the Northern GOM folks. IMO
Thought about that as well, If this continues the next 3 days...where will he be turning north from on sunday? I was hoping GFS would go the other way...and turn earlier, and go out to sea, not later.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
I am sure the TVCN consensus will keep shifting south after the 18z GFS but the NHC may not shift its track that far south just yet. IMO.
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beachman80
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
brock berlin wrote:AxaltaRacing24 wrote:brock berlin wrote:I think we can all agree the 18Z GFS is junk, the FV3 has been a disaster.
Not really man. It just caved to a path that joined all the other globals.
I think the Euro's eastern solution makes a lot more sense.
It only makes sense if it stalls. A lot of models let it crawl but don’t stall it the way the Euro does. By the way, just another 100 miles more to the west and this thing ends up straddling the west coast not the east coast, so the west coast also needs to pay close attention.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
hohnywx wrote:caneman wrote:caneman wrote:The Ukmet has been impressing the he!! Out me the last few years. One of my go to's now
Disagree. The only outlier now is the Euro
Did you just disagree with yourself
But yes, the UKMET is a stellar model. It had a few coupes last winter in the northeast as well. Statistically, I believe it is #2 behind the Euro.
Huh? The Ukmet has been accurate and the euro is the only outlier now. Meant to copy someone else's comment on there
Last edited by caneman on Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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