ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StruThiO]

Generating some impressively cold cloud tops recently

[bamajammer4eva]

Uh-Oh The NHC 'Cone' seems to be getting eaten up by a circle!

https://media.giphy.com/media/l50Qb9OzGEhrFSvvsz/giphy.gif

I don't think I've ever seen the track just get shorter and shorter with each advisory like this before.

Also Dorian proving yet again that satellite appearance can only go so far--I'd think it was barely a hurricane right now if not for actual measurements.

Found one that did that over land-the dreaded Harvey of course

[hurricaneCW]

He's definitely getting better and better organized, seeing some bursts of very cold cloud tops near the center now. The CDO has gotten larger and he's getting structurally more impressive.

Should be a major by later today and tonight. Some very scary scenarios being shown by the models unfortunately.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: It is really an ugly cat 2 hurricane but well we have recon, in EPAC this would be a TS maybe a cat 1 at best but not more based only on dvorak.

SAB is at T4.5 so probably 75-80 without Recon.

Are you sure about that with adt under T4. 3.7 / 989.0mb/ 59.0kt

ADT would be considered a statistical outlier in all honesty in this case.

[ncforecaster89]

Why does he look squished from NW to SE?

Interaction with the ridge

being pulled to the wnw by the upper low. which looks like its causing it to turn earlier..

it is pretty clear the ull is pulling to the wnw

that and that upper low is really shooting west to soon wsw.

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/08/29/22.gif

That ULL is creating an excellent outflow channel to the NW that has really helped ventilate the system....which has resulted in the significant intensification we've seen recently.

[TheProfessor]

When's the next recon?

[Bocadude85]

Euro is initialized. Let’s see if the upper air causes any major changes.

[Aric Dunn]

When's the next recon?

im assuming first pass will be 30 min to an hour before 5am advisory.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

When's the next recon?

From the Plan of the Day:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

Into the storm:

NOAA P-3...

FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 42
A. 30/1100Z ... Scheduled to arrive at center at 7:00am AST
B. NOAA2 1905A DORIAN
C. 30/0800Z ... Scheduled to take off at 4:00am AST
D. 24.1N 69.8W
E. 30/1000Z TO 30/1600Z
F. SFC TO 20,000 FT

Air Force...

FLIGHT SIX - TEAL 76
A. 30/1130Z,1730Z ... Scheduled to arrive at center at 7:30am AST
B. AFXXX 2005A DORIAN
C. 30/0930Z ... Scheduled to take off at 5:30am AST
D. 24.2N 69.9W
E. 30/1100Z TO 30/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

Upper environment around the storm:

FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 49
A. 30/1200Z
B. NOAA9 1805A DORIAN
C. 30/0530Z ... Scheduled to take off at 1:30am AST
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

A local reporter here in Tampa is going. (https://www.wfla.com/news/noaa-hurrican ... ze-dorian/)

Track of that mission: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pag ... 830N1.html

[Aric Dunn]

models are now in a good consensus.

[Ubuntwo]

models are now in a good consensus.

yep. Every major model has landfall south of the cape.

[EquusStorm]

It certainly isn't a pleasant consensus for sure, though

[AxaltaRacing24]

It certainly isn't a pleasant consensus for sure, though

It’s an ugly trend. I’m either riding this out at fau in boca, or jupiter.

[Evenstar]

It certainly isn't a pleasant consensus for sure, though

It’s an ugly trend. I’m either riding this out at fau in boca, or jupiter.

That sounds very "out of the frying pan into the fire" either way you look at it.

[northjaxpro]

It certainly isn't a pleasant consensus for sure

Definitely not. A worst case nightmare scenario.you wiill ever see for the entire Florida peninsula.

[KBBOCA]

I had posted this in the Model forum, but felt it should go here. Hoping a pro met will chim in, need to decide if I take the boat in Key Largo off the davits and tie it down to the trailer. Need time to do so, then need to take care of the Miami home any advice would be much appreciated what type of weather can be expected down there.

Don't know if you're on Twitter, but one of the best people to follow for Miami-area advice is John Morales (@JohnMoralesNBC6) As he noted tonight, hurricane force wind probabilities have been increasing tonight for Miami (not sure about the Keys). He's incredibly responsive to questions too.

[ozonepete]

It certainly isn't a pleasant consensus for sure

Definitely not. A worst case nightmare scenario.you wiill ever see for the entire Florida peninsula.

Ugh. Your only hope now is that it stops and turns north before coming ashore. While it will still be bad it will lessen the damage and danger considerably.

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/KYbrgWj
JT's thinking a cat4 on approach also.

[KBBOCA]

The only saving grace for Florida would be a stall offshore that allows the trof to sufficiently open up a weakness to the north. This solution seems less likely at this point. Dorian could also have upwelling issues if it slows down offshore. Again, this isn't being predicted really either. The last silver lining is the relatively small size of the cyclone. Models show growth in size, but let's hope they are overdoing the increase. I don't see many positives, so I'm reaching. The southward trend is alarming for Miami and Ft. Lauderdale. Crossing my fingers for you guys.

Lots of discussion on Twitter tonight by pro mets about potential similarities to last year's Florence which sat and stalled off the NC coast, dropping from a major storm (strong Cat 4, I think) to a Cat 1 because of Eyewall replacements and upwelling. Unfortunately the waters off FL's east coast are warmer, including at significant depths. But one scientist was talking about how unprecedented it would be for a 140 MPH storm to hit at such a slow speed (4.5 MPH?!). It's going to be one for much future analysis. Sadly, it's also looking like it could be one for the record books in terms of potential destruction and severity.

Praying for all in FL. Hoping Dorian will somehow turn / dissipate, though nothing currently suggests either. I was a Boca Raton resident for 12 years. Currently safe up in Charlotte, but still many friends in FL..., so I'm tracking this intently. May you all find safe shelter and much support in the coming days.

[Hammy]

The only saving grace for Florida would be a stall offshore that allows the trof to sufficiently open up a weakness to the north. This solution seems less likely at this point. Dorian could also have upwelling issues if it slows down offshore. Again, this isn't being predicted really either. The last silver lining is the relatively small size of the cyclone. Models show growth in size, but let's hope they are overdoing the increase. I don't see many positives, so I'm reaching. The southward trend is alarming for Miami and Ft. Lauderdale. Crossing my fingers for you guys.

Lots of discussion on Twitter tonight by pro mets about potential similarities to last year's Florence which sat and stalled off the NC coast, dropping from a major storm (strong Cat 4, I think) to a Cat 1 because of Eyewall replacements and upwelling. Unfortunately the waters off FL's east coast are warmer, including at significant depths. But one scientist was talking about how unprecedented it would be for a 140 MPH storm to hit at such a slow speed (4.5 MPH?!). It's going to be one for much future analysis. Sadly, it's also looking like it could be one for the record books in terms of potential destruction and severity.

Praying for all in FL. Hoping Dorian will somehow turn / dissipate, though nothing currently suggests either. I was a Boca Raton resident for 12 years. Currently safe up in Charlotte, but still many friends in FL..., so I'm tracking this intently. May you all find safe shelter and much support in the coming days.

Wasn't the 1947 hurricane moving pretty slow though?