ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

Talk about a nightmare scenario. WPB, FLL, MIA, Tampa, Orlando, Jax, Savannah.... maybe Charleston... Just wow.

08/30 0Z GFS shows an expensive scenario.

South Fla, curve to Tampa, hit Orlando, and end up in Jacksonville.

https://i.imgur.com/a16WIgz.gif

[Bocadude85]

The only saving grace for Florida would be a stall offshore that allows the trof to sufficiently open up a weakness to the north. This solution seems less likely at this point. Dorian could also have upwelling issues if it slows down offshore. Again, this isn't being predicted really either. The last silver lining is the relatively small size of the cyclone. Models show growth in size, but let's hope they are overdoing the increase. I don't see many positives, so I'm reaching. The southward trend is alarming for Miami and Ft. Lauderdale. Crossing my fingers for you guys.

Lots of discussion on Twitter tonight by pro mets about potential similarities to last year's Florence which sat and stalled off the NC coast, dropping from a major storm (strong Cat 4, I think) to a Cat 1 because of Eyewall replacements and upwelling. Unfortunately the waters off FL's east coast are warmer, including at significant depths. But one scientist was talking about how unprecedented it would be for a 140 MPH storm to hit at such a slow speed (4.5 MPH?!). It's going to be one for much future analysis. Sadly, it's also looking like it could be one for the record books in terms of potential destruction and severity.

Praying for all in FL. Hoping Dorian will somehow turn / dissipate, though nothing currently suggests either. I was a Boca Raton resident for 12 years. Currently safe up in Charlotte, but still many friends in FL..., so I'm tracking this intently. May you all find safe shelter and much support in the coming days.

Wasn't the 1947 hurricane moving pretty slow though?

Yes I believe around 8-10mph, a lot of similarities between tonight’s 0z model runs and the 1947 Ft.Lauderdale hurricane.

[northjaxpro]

It certainly isn't a pleasant consensus for sure

Definitely not. A worst case nightmare scenario.you wiill ever see for the entire Florida peninsula.

Ugh. Your only hope now is that it stops and turns north before coming ashore. While it will still be bad it will lessen the damage and danger considerably.

That is right Pete. Matthew was a Cat 4 tropical cyclone, which spared the peninsula by staying just offshore the Florida East Coast, even though there was damage in Saint Augustine and in areas down in Brevard County.

Praying somehow Dorian can do the same., otherwse we are looking at the catastrophic damage and flooding potential like we neve have seen before.

[northjaxpro]

Talk about a nightmare scenario. WPB, FLL, MIA, Tampa, Orlando, Jax, Savannah.... maybe Charleston... Just wow.

08/30 0Z GFS shows an expensive scenario.

South Fla, curve to Tampa, hit Orlando, and end up in Jacksonville.

https://i.imgur.com/a16WIgz.gif

Yeah, every one of those major metro areas are likely to get severely impacted by this dangerous hurricane. This eally , really highlights the enormity of the situation that's for sure!!

[KBBOCA]

Wasn't the 1947 hurricane moving pretty slow though?

Not sure. I'd have to research it. Here's the first twitter thread I referenced above.

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1 ... 3122158592


Here's the second thread.
https://twitter.com/BillKarins/status/1 ... 2289757184


Both twitter posts have interesting comment threads...

[Tailspin]

If the core stays small the system may rapidly weaken from the friction when it comes ashore.
Also noone really knows how well it will do between eyewall replacements.
One noteable thing on the hwrf sim is it goes with a concentric eyewall cycle.

[KBBOCA]

I was offline much of today so I've only read the last 5-6 pages of the thread and skipped 20+ pages prior, but haven't seen too much discussion here about flooding risk. Here are a few tweets I thought laid out some of the very real dangers in a clear way. I'm a bit worried that those in the coastal Carolinas aren't taking this too seriously yet. I know there's time, but with King tides and the storm... could be a terrible flooding potential, as well as a terrible wind and surge event for the East Coast of FL.

Winds:
 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1167284865747902469




Rain:
 https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1167311085004705792

[KBBOCA]

And now something totally different. A storm this potentially deadly also provides moments of wonder and "beauty".... One of the reasons so many of us are addicted to tracking them.

 https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1167310225935699968

[GCANE]

My so called "PV Ring" is starting to really shape up.
Only fly in the ointment is the close-by ULL to the west.
Looks like GFS is nailing this well.
ULL will move out and dissipate today along with the development of an Anti-cyclone overhead.
Tomorrow will track into an UL High.
Big lift in the troposphere.
Lots of vertical room for this to spin up.
On approach to the coast, I hate to say it, UL conditions are ideal for deep intensification.
Let's pray for EWRCs.

[aperson]

It's been dealing with a modest amount of dry air entrainment. That may be about to end?

[KBBOCA]

About to call it a night, but one last post that may be helpful. Matt Lanza, a pro met in Houston has compiled a twitter list of key pro mets and scientists that are generally worth reading for a storm like Dorian.

https://twitter.com/mattlanza/lists/dorian

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1166899687674322944

[eastcoastFL]

Safe travels, you should take the dog, boynton is in jeopardy of the core

She’s an older dog and all that time on the plane would mess her up bad. I can’t believe the new track is showing a 140mph cat 4 right into my town. I’m glad I booked that flight.

Can you possibly take the dog with you. I have a very soft spot for animals though. Your veternarian could prescribe a mild tranquilizer (for lack of a better term). You wouldn’t even have to pick it up. They can call it in to your local and least busy pharmacy. Seriously. Don’t leave that baby behind. Hope you don’t mind my opinion.

Unfortunately its too late. My flight leaves in a a few hours. She's in a good place with my family. They're far enough inland that surge isn't an issue and the home is sturdy. I wish I could've took her but we booked the flight less than 48 hours before it leaves.

[Kingarabian]

Some deep cold tops of about -80C have been occasionally going off near the center. Other than that, it looks the same as it did a few hours ago when recon was inside of it. So I would say its leveled off and taking a break. As that ULL moves away or weakens, tomorrow I'm expecting Dorian to reach MH status.

[GCANE]

Dorian now has a solid feed of high TPW air from its east feeder band.
That band will get disrupted when passing over Hispanola.
Howerer, it looks like Dorian will tap into a large pool to its west.
In fact, this will dominate on approach to the coast.
Dorian will be gulping in massive amounts of moist air, from the surface to mid levels, straight out of the GOM.
I don't think I have ever seen air saturated to 150 mb.
Just shows you how high the tropopause will be.
Given this, the UL conditions, and the NHC forecast of a solid Cat 4 on approach, IMHO Cat 5 is not out of the question.
Its going to all hinge on EWRCs.

[GCANE]

We are all thinking FL coast, but bear in mind, Grand Bahama will take a major hit.

[tgenius]

So what is the confidence that it will be the WPB area and not lower? Miami to WPB is only 70 miles.

Has the shift west started officially and not a wobble?

[lando]

So what is the confidence that it will be the WPB area and not lower? Miami to WPB is only 70 miles.

Has the shift west started officially and not a wobble?

The Major global models have zeroed in on a census landfall between Boca And Hobe Sound. Generally, when these models are in such good agreement, the track is likely close to what it will be. However, with the storm still possibly 5 days away, the average margin of error is 200 miles

[Bocadude85]

So what is the confidence that it will be the WPB area and not lower? Miami to WPB is only 70 miles.

Has the shift west started officially and not a wobble?

In my humble opinion landfall (bar some major steering changes) will be between Pompano Beach and Ft.Pierce.

[miami33]

Gas is getting tough to find, i purchased 50 gallons yesterday for the generator without a problem

Every station I passed has plenty of activity going on. even the stations that are usually empty. No line at the Shell station next to my job, who conveniently turned their price sign off and was charging 25 cents more than the Speedway down the road

Screw you, gouger, I have fuel rewards

Report the gouger, they have an app for that

If you're looking for gas in Florida, there's an app for that.

DORIAN LIVE UPDATES: FUEL AVAILABILITY & STATION OUTAGES

https://www.gasbuddy.com/go/dorian-live ... n-outages/

[TorSkk]

https://i.imgur.com/KYbrgWj.png
https://imgur.com/KYbrgWj
JT's thinking a cat4 on approach also.

That's NHC's data in a graphic generated by the Fleet Weather Center