ATL: DORIAN - Models

[texsn95]

Any chance this thing loses the steering influence of the Atl ridge and just starts to drift WNW in the GoM, similar to the upper level low that's West of it and drifting towards the Tex-Mex coast?

[AutoPenalti]

WSVN seems to always lean on the Euro. I have not once seen them with a GFS model.

[Steve]

It’s the models thread.

Boom! Love that comment

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

I like it too

For sure GP. I wasn’t meaning to come off as being a **** so I’m glad you didn’t take offense. It gets so much worse sometimes than Dorian’s model thread. Sure you have a couple Texans looking for anything that might switch stuff up, but I’d say this storms thread has been pretty tame. It would be about a 2 on the 10 scale for model wars.

[PandaCitrus]

HMON 18z continues southern dive. Now heading west toward deep south Dade/Key Largo.

[syfr]

t I’d say this storms thread has been pretty tame. It would be about a 2 on the 10 scale for model wars.

Its still early

[jlauderdal]

WSVN seems to always lean on the Euro. I have not once seen them with a GFS model.

Phile Ferro showed the euro and gfs earlier and even mentioned the south move on the latest gfs...he did botch up an explanation of the cone, he made it seem like it is some randomly drawn thing based off the spaghetti models, clearly he knows better but it was a very poor presentation of models and the cone

[lsuhurricane]

HMON really trending towards the Keys on this run. This thing may not get picked up by the trough

[Steve]

Any chance this thing loses the steering influence of the Atl ridge and just starts to drift WNW in the GoM, similar to the upper level low that's West of it and drifting towards the Tex-Mex coast?

I haven’t seen it. Maybe if Dorian would have been farther south and was progged to move more westward and gotten out of any potential westerlies influence it could have been on the table. Also if it was 2-3 days slower maybe another blocking high would be rollling by to the north. Don’t sleep completely on the upper low. GFS and Icon have hinted that a piece could dip down to the bay of Campeche or juice something else down there next week.

[supercane4867]

Both HWRF and HMON make Dorian a CAT5

[SunnyThoughts]

Watch out Keys on HMON geeze

[supercane4867]

HMON pulling a Labor Day Hurricane on the Keys

[Tyler Penland]

Both HWRF and HMON make Dorian a CAT5

They also have a low-970s storm at hour 3 which is highly unlikely.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[viberama]

HMON pulling a Labor Day Hurricane on the Keys

I wouldn't read into the HMON too much. It's an outlier.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z HWRF is really, really bad. Slow moving Cat 4-5 over the Gulf Stream.

[syfr]

I thought the models thread was for non discussion? but besides a few models it is the same? I came in here to not read the thoughts of someone but rather see the models when they come out.

Thanks for sharing your first post with us on Storm 2K!

[TheProfessor]

Wow, HMON might drop Dorian into Cuba if it's not careful.

[Nimbus]

Both HWRF and HMON make Dorian a CAT5

Rare that you see an annular hurricane modeled or forecast.

[supercane4867]

[beachman80]

I know the HMON is not a reliable model, but would anyone really be surprised if there track is right? The way this thing is trending south? I personally think Euro is going go even further south their next run.

[TheProfessor]

HMON pulling a Labor Day Hurricane on the Keys

I wouldn't read into the HMON too much. It's an outlier.

I wouldn't call the HMON an outlier(by the literal definition). The solution may not be very likely, but the edge of the NHC forecasting cone is still over the northern parts of the Keys as of 5 PM so the HMON isn't that far off from where the center could actually be. The southwest dive also has some backing from other models, though not to the extent of the HMON.