ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[lando]

Hopefully there's no mandatory evacuations where we're at...we just moved in in May - we'd be staying put as we don't have the money.

I recall you saying you are further north, perhaps by the cape area... I do not think there would be any evacuations there at this time

[lando]

The latest 6z GFS seems to show the system slowing more over Western Florida, tampa area, and maintaining a little more punch then the euro

[Ian2401]

starting to see some more transverse banding on the south side. shear likely letting up

[StormingB81]

Jim Cantore is south of me. That could be good. That could be bad since he always seems to end up on the weak side wherever he goes..

[SkeetoBite]

Jim Cantore is south of me. That could be good. That could be bad since he always seems to end up on the weak side wherever he goes..

If you see this guy, you should have left two days ago.

[StormingB81]

Jim Cantore is south of me. That could be good. That could be bad since he always seems to end up on the weak side wherever he goes..

If you see this guy, you should have left two days ago.

I think I’m good. I’m 9 miles from the coast just south of cocoa beach. Boarding up just in case and riding it out

[WeatherOrKnot]

Jim Cantore is south of me. That could be good. That could be bad since he always seems to end up on the weak side wherever he goes..

Where is Cantore?

[USTropics]

Dorian is parallel to the ULL now (blue) which is backing off west and should be near Andros Island in 12 hours. This is inducing some SW flow still (green) and dry air entrainment. This probably isn't enough to weaken Dorian, but will certainly cap significant intensification for the short-term. Meanwhile, Dorian will start to pivot more westward, orientating himself to be NE of the ULL later today (purple) - this will provide a much more suitable flow for Dorian to significantly strengthen.



You can see this evolution in mid-level WV loops as well:


WV loop:

[StormingB81]

Jim Cantore is south of me. That could be good. That could be bad since he always seems to end up on the weak side wherever he goes..

Where is Cantore?

Probably vero beach area maybe a little south

[Hammy]

Huge dry air slot but also a solid and intense eyewall that's obscuring the eye, showing the shear remains isolated to the upper atmosphere.

[wx98]

Jim Cantore is south of me. That could be good. That could be bad since he always seems to end up on the weak side wherever he goes..

Where is Cantore?

At TWC in Atlanta right now lol

[michelinj]

Made a prediction to myself a few days ago that I thought this would peak at MidCat4 and then make landfall as a MidCat3. Think I’m still on for this sort of? Think a lot depends on the frequency and timing on EWRCs

[Nimbus]

CDO is increasing in size and the eye has become visible several times so recon will likely find a stronger storm this morning on track to become a major today.

06Z HWRF is showing a stronger storm but early track is further south. With a visible eye later today we can watch for westerly and northwesterly wobbles.

Latitude and longitude would be key in a stall situation with no steering winds as poleward tendencies and chances to "feel" weaknesses to the north increase with latitude.

I don't expect much change in track from the NHC with the models predicting a weak steering environment near great Abaco island.

The HMON is still sending Category 5 scenarios over Key West but maybe that model will be an outlier by the end of the day.

[tolakram]

Hi all,

we're going to get really busy here so please make your posts count.

1. Avoid over the top statements, keep the drama to a minimum please.
2. No one liners or other useless posts please.
3. Remember Storm2K rules and never attack another poster.
4. REPORT - if you see a post that you think should not be here use the report button ! in the upper right of every post. Many times this is the only way we see a bad post, especially when things are moving fast.

Stay safe!

[xironman]

At 24000 ft the winds are only five kts as the plane approaches so shear probably won't be that bad as it passes through the area.

[northjaxpro]

Jim Cantore is south of me. That could be good. That could be bad since he always seems to end up on the weak side wherever he goes..

Where is Cantore?

At TWC in Atlanta right now lol

Yeah TWC will have several crews around the state covering Dorian. I would imagine Cantore will be somewhere probably in Palm Beach County, being as close to as where the projected landfall will be occuring.

[northjaxpro]

No, I am awake this morning Panama doing my morning analysis and chatting here on the forum for a little bit. I have not had time to sleep much at all and that will continue well lnto next week monioring Dorian.
Long days and nights ahead for yours truly, like for a lot of us.

[USTropics]

AF and NOAA will be tag teaming Dorian this morning:

[stormsurf]

Hello,
I would appreciate some advice and am interested in Gator's and WX57(sorry your working your butt off) opinion. Were on A1A in South Boca near the inlet. Currently we are looking at 80% TS force winds, 40% H winds. Were about 70 miles south of projected land fall. Were also 10. 4 ft above sea level on the Red reef. With Hurr force winds only 25 miles, if things were to stay like this I would think we would be fine. I understand 1 bobble and we might face much more difficult conditions. We have a solid concrete building w hurricane glass. Im not overly concerned with surge. We can move south 15 miles to similar housing conditions, or hunker down here or drive to family in St. Aug. I feel like being on the left down here may be the thing to do with it turning north or do we just bail and get away from maximum impact. Our house generally never floods. Gator I appreciate your experience and would value your opinion. Im a native and been through all of them since David. Thanks for the input and please everyone, be safe and kind to your neighbors. Any storm surge info appreciated.

[Bocadude85]

Hello,
I would appreciate some advice and am interested in Gator's and WX57(sorry your working your butt off) opinion. Were on A1A in South Boca near the inlet. Currently we are looking at 80% TS force winds, 40% H winds. Were about 70 miles south of projected land fall. Were also 10. 4 ft above sea level on the Red reef. With Hurr force winds only 25 miles, if things were to stay like this I would think we would be fine. I understand 1 bobble and we might face much more difficult conditions. We have a solid concrete building w hurricane glass. Im not overly concerned with surge. We can move south 15 miles to similar housing conditions, or hunker down here or drive to family in St. Aug. I feel like being on the left down here may be the thing to do with it turning north or do we just bail and get away from maximum impact. Our house generally never floods. Gator I appreciate your experience and would value your opinion. Im a native and been through all of them since David. Thanks for the input and please everyone, be safe and kind to your neighbors. Any storm surge info appreciated.

The newest NHC track has Dorian making landfall 40 miles to your north. If you are in a evacuation zone and are asked to evacuate I would listen to the authorities and evacuate. Landfall is still 4 days out, won’t take much to shift Dorians track south by 40 miles..