ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormsurf]

Yes that for sure is the benchmark but should I go a little south or drive to st augustine. Thanks very much for your input

[Jevo]

I have been apart of this community for more than a decade, and this is the first time I've ever gone into pucker mode. I don't think a storm has spooked me as much as Dorian, and it's not even that we live inside of a shrinking cone (Boca Raton)... I'ts the timing; the thought of this thing slowly weakening over us for more than a day makes me more nervous than anything.

[WeatherOrKnot]

Where is Cantore?

At TWC in Atlanta right now lol

Yeah TWC will have several crews around the state covering Dorian. I would imagine Cantore will be somewhere probably in Palm Beach County, being as close to as where the projected landfall will be occuring.

I think I’m just in denial that this monster is coming this way. I’m in central pbc.

We do have our supplies and our plans in place. Just need to put up the shutters tonight or tomorrow morning.

My 11 year old son is having some anxiety issues with the storm coming so we’re all remaining calm for his sake.

[USTropics]

Hello,
I would appreciate some advice and am interested in Gator's and WX57(sorry your working your butt off) opinion. Were on A1A in South Boca near the inlet. Currently we are looking at 80% TS force winds, 40% H winds. Were about 70 miles south of projected land fall. Were also 10. 4 ft above sea level on the Red reef. With Hurr force winds only 25 miles, if things were to stay like this I would think we would be fine. I understand 1 bobble and we might face much more difficult conditions. We have a solid concrete building w hurricane glass. Im not overly concerned with surge. We can move south 15 miles to similar housing conditions, or hunker down here or drive to family in St. Aug. I feel like being on the left down here may be the thing to do with it turning north or do we just bail and get away from maximum impact. Our house generally never floods. Gator I appreciate your experience and would value your opinion. Im a native and been through all of them since David. Thanks for the input and please everyone, be safe and kind to your neighbors. Any storm surge info appreciated.

The newest NHC track has Dorian making landfall 40 miles to your north. If you are in a evacuation zone and are asked to evacuate I would listen to the authorities and evacuate. Landfall is still 4 days out, won’t take much to shift Dorians track south by 40 miles..

You can use this for evacuation zones:
https://www.floridadisaster.org/knowyourzone/

[Jr0d]

We still have hurricane conditions in the NWS service forecast here in Key West for Monday. It looks like we will at minimum be under a tropical storm watch soon. It will be interesting to see how far the NHC extends the hurricane watches when issued.

There are going to be millions under evacuation orders soon. This is going to make for very congested roads.

My SO is NOT taking her daughter to West Palm Beach this weekend to her dad's. While the weather tonight through Sunday will not be an issue, the traffic and people scrambling to get storm ready creates a hectic environmental.

It's been 15 years since the East Coast of Florida has taken a direct hit. We have millions of new residents who have never experienced a hurricane. This will result in some very stressed out people.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Looks like shear is starting to come down on the south side of the storm or convection is wrapping around.

[USTropics]

Recon making first pass over Dorian, approaching the center:

[wx98]

Rain rate >70 mm/hr

[HurricaneFrances04]

My guess is recon finds a 3.

Satellite image is starting to become more impressive.

[sponger]

Rain rate >70 mm/hr

Well beyond violent shower!

https://water.usgs.gov/edu/activity-how ... etric.html

[SouthDadeFish]

Pressure down to 969 mb extrapolated and max flight level winds of 98 kt. Dorian is still intensifying.

[USTropics]

pressure down to 969mb:

[AutoPenalti]

Pressure down to 969 mb extrapolated and max flight level winds of 98 kt. Dorian is still intensifying.

Seems ahead of schedule even for HWRF standards.

[Jr0d]

98knt Flight, 94knt SMR and 969mb with 34knt flight level winds is what I saw on the last recon pass.

[Siker]

Is that a 180kt SFMR showing up on TropicalTidbits? I think that might be a little high...

[TorSkk]

Unflagged 177 kt sfmr

[Stormi]

Ncentral FL here...Just moved - no generator yet. 2 kiddos 5 & under...Not scared for myself-just for them.

[wx98]

Anyone else see that unflagged SFMR of 180 I know that’s not true but it’s definitely a sign of intensification

[Bad_Hurricane]

Last Recon:
Pressure: 969.0 mb
SFMR Peak 94 knots(~ 108.2 mph)

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1167376377693331456

[SouthDadeFish]

Y'all.... Clearly the cat 5 SFMR reading is an error. I don't care if it wasn't flagged. It's an error. Don't worry.