ATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormLogic]

My area is now under risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point. In the next 24 hrs, we are expected to receive 15-24"+ in isolated areas in a 24-30hr time frame...

Where are you??

jefferson county

[StormLogic]

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1210 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Sep 18 2019 - 12Z Thu Sep 19 2019

...A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...East TX/Southwest LA...
1600 UTC Update -- Shifted the High Risk area a little farther to
the east, while extending the eastern periphery of the Moderate
eastward as well, based on the 12Z guidance/trends (including
high-res CAMs). Still a bit concerned with the strongest
instability offshore; however, some of those outer inflow bands
are drawing 2000-3000 j/kg of mixed CAPE, which earlier had led to
hourly rainfall rates of 2.5-3.0+ inches along portions of the
Upper Texas Coast. Currently, the CDO continues to result in a
relative min in instability toward Imelda's center (thus lower
short term rainfall rates). However, as the TD lifts slowly
northward, so will those outer inflow bands.

[sphelps8681]

My area is now under risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point. In the next 24 hrs, we are expected to receive 15-24"+ in isolated areas in a 24-30hr time frame...

I just got back from Beaumont and had no problems and saw no flooding roads. But that does not mean it won't happen. Just have not seen any accumulation where I was. Drove back to Lumberton and the same.

[StormLogic]

My area is now under risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point. In the next 24 hrs, we are expected to receive 15-24"+ in isolated areas in a 24-30hr time frame...

I just got back from Beaumont and had no problems and saw no flooding roads. But that does not mean it won't happen. Just have not seen any accumulation where I was. Drove back to Lumberton and the same.

That's because this is just the beginning. Tonight and into tomorrow afternoon will be when we get alot more of moisture and precipitation rates of 2-3" an hour at times. What were getting right now is nothing compared to what we will get later.

[SoupBone]

SW and NW Houston seems to be wrapping this up sooner rather than later. Unless this thing makes some serious jogs back to the west. It's cloudy but absolutely zero rain today in west Houston.

[stormlover2013]

My area is now under risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point. In the next 24 hrs, we are expected to receive 15-24"+ in isolated areas in a 24-30hr time frame...

I just got back from Beaumont and had no problems and saw no flooding roads. But that does not mean it won't happen. Just have not seen any accumulation where I was. Drove back to Lumberton and the same.

That's because this is just the beginning. Tonight and into tomorrow afternoon will be when we get alot more of moisture and precipitation rates of 2-3" an hour at times. What were getting right now is nothing compared to what we will get later.

check ur mail storm

[setxweathergal64]

My area is now under risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point. In the next 24 hrs, we are expected to receive 15-24"+ in isolated areas in a 24-30hr time frame...

Where are you??

jefferson county

Greg Bostwick didnt mention that while ago. He was encouraging actually.

[stormlover2013]

Where are you??

jefferson county

Greg Bostwick didnt mention that while ago. He was encouraging actually.

Greg is being conservative

[sphelps8681]

Where are you??

jefferson county

Greg Bostwick didnt mention that while ago. He was encouraging actually.

I have been on this board for a 12 years I can tell you most of the time you will here it here before they actually tell you on the local channels. Not saying that is what is said always verifies but most times does.

[sphelps8681]

jefferson county

Greg Bostwick didnt mention that while ago. He was encouraging actually.

Greg is being conservative

Patrick Vaughn will have a more realistic scenario. Love me some Greg but the two usually have a difference in the forecast.

[StormLogic]

Where are you??

jefferson county

Greg Bostwick didnt mention that while ago. He was encouraging actually.

But what you don't realize is Greg is only really to report to the public what is really given to him. I have been doing research since 3am this morning and if this CAPE and Precipitable water setup like its forecasted later, you can be your sweet derriere that we will see some heavy rainfall amounts in the setx and golden triangle. 15-24"+ in isolated areas. East Texas could expect some heavy rains there after we do.

Oh and this is in the next 24-30 hours.

[StormLogic]

This is current CAPE and Precipital water 12z


this is whats forecasted in 24 hrs


This is where imelda's 500mb and vorticity should be in the next 24hrs


Looks like it's pretty obvious that there will be some heavy rains to come.

[sphelps8681]

This is at Port Bolivar. And to think the county wants to fill this in.

https://www.facebook.com/ted.vega.37/vi ... =3&theater

[mpic]

We are currently in a heavy band going through Splendora and heading east on radar. More rain tonight and I'm afraid it will really cause problems for us here. Minor road flooding on typical roads today.

[setxweathergal64]

jefferson county

Greg Bostwick didnt mention that while ago. He was encouraging actually.

I have been on this board for a 12 years I can tell you most of the time you will here it here before they actually tell you on the local channels. Not saying that is what is said always verifies but most times does.

I've been on here many years as well and keep coming back for a reason. But I like a mixture of patrick/greg/ and this board.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like things are going according to forecast so far according to the CAMs/HREF. Over the next 3-4 hours though, it looks like some of the heaviest precipitation will begin transitioning back closer to the center feature and bands nearer to it. The band in Montgomery and Liberty County may be the beginning of this transition.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1174422217926615041

[Astromanía]

What and where is the biggest rainfall acumulation so far?

[Steve]

What and where is the biggest rainfall acumulation so far?

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 11&loop=no

[1900hurricane]

What and where is the biggest rainfall acumulation so far?

It's far from a complete list, but here's a few of the bigger totals right now.

 https://twitter.com/LaurenRainson/status/1174360202444980224