ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

They might jump it to 110 mph at the update here in a few minutes

[michelinj]

And they have. 110mph

[wx98]

Y'all.... Clearly the cat 5 SFMR reading is an error. I don't care if it wasn't flagged. It's an error. Don't worry.

That probably had something to do with the very high rain rate it showed

[tolakram]

Water vapor loop. It's slowly moving away from that streak of shear.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_08&x=11507.10205078125&y=5922.728759765625

[Canelaw99]

Hopefully there's no mandatory evacuations where we're at...we just moved in in May - we'd be staying put as we don't have the money.

Storm surge for a major is pretty minimal due to the thin shelf offshore. If your near these areas than a shelter is the way to go.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... _mom5h.png

Do you have one of these for Miami-Dade County??

[sponger]

Ncentral FL here...Just moved - no generator yet. 2 kiddos 5 & under...Not scared for myself-just for them.

Just take a few breaths and remember only the coast is going to see those high end winds. Freeze up some milk jugs with filtered water to maximize your fridge lasting, crank it to maximum and make sure you have some way to heat and cook, sterno is cheap and works great!

[GCANE]

Over 70 mm/hr rain rate reported by recon.
This is the level that can support Cat 5 intensity.

[northjaxpro]

It is now a consensus that landfall will be either in Saint Lucie County , Martin County or Palm Beach County. I see Ventrice thinks Vero Beach may be Grond Zero for Dorian.

[feederband]

Why do some of the Tracks showing it Coming in at a Cat 4 And then Not to much longer they have it inland as a Cat1 …. My experience and I live well inland I have had some Come in at a cat 3 and Still be a Cat 3 over me... Some big Shear or something down the road?

[Jr0d]

I do not think we have ever had a storm forecast to be this strong heading towards such a densely populated area. The only relatively less dense area in the danger zone would be around Fort Pierce.

This could possibly cause unprecedented damage.

[chaser1]

Still wiping the cobwebs out of my eyes but at first glimpse I'd almost suggest that Dorian has slowed it's forward motion a fair amount over recent hours. Perhaps deepening? Perhaps i'm just not quite awake enough LOL. The serious takeaway however is that in the instance of any significant slow down or stall, this could impart the storm's downstream impact on where it might begin to make that right hand turn northwest toward and into the weakness in the ridge that is expected to occur toward the end of the forecast period. No prediction here, just something to look out for and see if any further delay in forecast landfall might suggest a potential bend and northward shift in track toward the end of the forecast period

[cheezyWXguy]

And they have. 110mph

Seems consistent with the improvement in satellite appearance as well. The CDO has been expanding and cooling steadily overnight, and outflow is improving on the SW side. This is the first time that I've seen where Dorian doesn't seem to be dealing with significant dry air intrusions.

[northjaxpro]

WOW!! The shear has let up and Dorian is rapidly intensifying this morning.. Much earlier than I personally anticipared at.this juncture.

110 mph now!!

[sponger]

Why do some of the Tracks showing it Coming in at a Cat 4 And then Not to much longer they have it inland as a Cat1 …. My experience and I live well inland I have had some Come in at a cat 3 and Still be a Cat 3 over me... Some big Shear or something down the road?

Just due to the slow movement. Fast movers bring those winds well inland like Michael did to Alabama and Georgia. That will not be the case this time.

[USTropics]

NOAA's turn next, coming in from the NW:

[KWT]

Dorian is looking increasingly good at the moment, no wonder recon found the winds to up to 110mph. Very close to major status now and I think that is only a matter of time.

Pressure dropping nicely as well, below 970mbs.

[sponger]

Hopefully there's no mandatory evacuations where we're at...we just moved in in May - we'd be staying put as we don't have the money.

Storm surge for a major is pretty minimal due to the thin shelf offshore. If your near these areas than a shelter is the way to go.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... _mom5h.png

Do you have one of these for Miami-Dade County??

Sure!

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... i_mom5.png

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... L_mom5.png

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... l_mom5.png

[jdjaguar]

Storm surge for a major is pretty minimal due to the thin shelf offshore. If your near these areas than a shelter is the way to go.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... _mom5h.png

Do you have one of these for Miami-Dade County??

Sure!

Could you post vero beach? Thanks
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... i_mom5.png

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... L_mom5.png

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... l_mom5.png

[jhpigott]

Any thoughts on when watches will go up on FL E Coast? Thinking 5:00pm today?

[Kohlecane]

Getting that Hugo look