ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[b0tzy29]

Anyone feel just super un-easy about this one? Maybe because its just the first major one of the season. In-laws are in Ft. Pierce. They say its complete caos down there.

I am on Long Island on the water and lived through Sandy. The Euro the last couple runs has this thing dangerously close at about 200 (I understand there is not much merit there) hours out to the Jersey Shore / Long Island coasts. If the latest Euro pans out, the amount of damage this storm causes will break records.

[drewschmaltz]

It looks to me like the dry air slot just got mixed out and the CDO grew a bit in size. The interaction with the ULL has been a fun learning experience. I know we've had this said a few times but I do think the eye wall will establish in the next few hours and then it really is "all systems go". My guess is major at 11am.

[ouragans]

Any thoughts on when watches will go up on FL E Coast? Thinking 5:00pm today?

I think it will be tomorrow 5AM, roughly 48 hrs before impact.

EDIT: my answer was too quick. TS winds are expected on Sunday 8PM so it should be tonight 8 PM. But... 5PM would be reasonable knowing that watches means evacuation. Earlier the better

[BensonTCwatcher]

The inner core is really building and sealing out that persistent dry air slot on microwave. Outflow channel is enhanced to the northeast. The dry Caribbean and south American air jet from the south is finally being sealed off. Outflow solid to the southeast. Looks to be improving on the western edge as well. Aa solid 24 hours of strengthening per forecast look right on. I don't see what would prevent Dorian from getting to Cat 4. Some dry air ingestion probably, but can't predict that. I would expect the strengthening and eyewall replacements to expand the size a bit faster than the current Euro and GFS are showing due to this. That's concerning for the FL folks. The long duration rain and 60 mph winds will cause a lot of problems with Dorian- Yes the eyewall will be the focus, but here in NC Florence and Mathew effects from the inland flooding and trees falling surprised a lot of hurricane veterans. Dorian will find what' s weak and causes problems This setup- Increased overall storm energy, increased affected area, and slow movement could be a much bigger impact than people think regardless of maximum wind speeds and where the center comes ashore. Hopefully the storm does not expand too much as the more massive storm will take a lot longer to wind down over land.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2019_05L/web/basicGifDisplay.html

https://col.st/O2XM1

[NDG]

Who remembers when John Hope used to say on TWC that the flow of the high cirrus clouds was a sign to follow of where the Hurricane was headed? So true!

[catskillfire51]

The inner core is really building and sealing out that persistent dry air slot on microwave. Outflow channel is enhanced to the northeast. The dry Caribbean and south American air jet from the south is finally being sealed off. Outflow solid to the southeast. Looks to be improving on the western edge as well. Aa solid 24 hours of strengthening per forecast look right on. I don't see what would prevent Dorian from getting to Cat 4. Some dry air ingestion
probably, but can't predict that. I would expect the strengthening and eyewall replacements to expand the size a bit faster than the current Euro and GFS are showing due to this. That's concerning for the FL folks. The long duration rain and 60 mph winds will cause a lot of problems with Dorian- Yes the eyewall will be the focus, but here in NC Florence and Mathew effects from the inland flooding and trees falling surprised a lot of hurricane veterans. Dorian will find what' s weak and causes problems This setup- Increased overall storm energy, increased affected area, and slow movement could be a much bigger impact than people think regardless of maximum wind speeds and where the center comes ashore. Hopefully the storm does not expand too much as the more massive storm will take a lot longer to wind down over land.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=05L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

https://col.st/O2XM1

Noaa 2 is about to pass the center again

[Evil Jeremy]

I’m sure the 11am advisory will include a couple lines about when to expct watches.

[Jr0d]

Who remembers when John Hope used to say on TWC that the flow of the high cirrus clouds was a sign to follow of where the Hurricane was headed? So true!

Man I do miss John Hope. I pretty much stopped watching the weather channel after he passed away.

I can help but wonder what we would have to say about Dorian.

[FLpanhandle91]

Recon finding 973.2mb with 36 kt winds well away from the center.

[SouthDadeFish]

Any thoughts on when watches will go up on FL E Coast? Thinking 5:00pm today?

I think it will be tomorrow 5AM, roughly 48 hrs before impact.

This is the most likely scenario (5 AM tomorrow). Although it's not impossible they issue them late today to out of extra precaution.

[NDG]

Let me say that if there is any good news with Dorian is that it looks like it will remain a small potent major hurricane in size, so hurricane force winds will not cover such a wide area as with Irma, this will be like an Andrew where north Miami barely had any damage but if you went to SW Miami/Dadeland on the Homestead it was catastrophic.
Very important where the eyewall makes landfall but just about all of the FL east coast needs to be prepared just in case, look what happened to the Virgin Islands, it tracked over them on a very short notice.
IMO.

[Ken711]

When is the next recon scheduled?

[GCANE]

[tarheelprogrammer]

Today this thing may take off intensity wise I am expecting a cat 4 by tonight. We shall see.

[NDG]

Who remembers when John Hope used to say on TWC that the flow of the high cirrus clouds was a sign to follow of where the Hurricane was headed? So true!

Man I do miss John Hope. I pretty much stopped watching the weather channel after he passed away.

I can help but wonder what we would have to say about Dorian.

I learned so much from him when he was on TWC during my teens and twenties, he was such a professional expert. Wasn't it 50 past the hour when he would come up on?

[will759227]

Good morning, havent caught up since 3am ,. nhc moved it north after landfall opposed to west now?

[GCANE]

Core is heating up.

At 11:30Z Recon measured 10C
At 12:50Z Recon measured 13C

Measurements made at 700mb flight level

[Jr0d]

Who remembers when John Hope used to say on TWC that the flow of the high cirrus clouds was a sign to follow of where the Hurricane was headed? So true!

Man I do miss John Hope. I pretty much stopped watching the weather channel after he passed away.

I can help but wonder what we would have to say about Dorian.

I learned so much from him when he was on TWC during my teens and twenties, he was such a professional expert. Wasn't it 50 past the hour when he would come up on?

Tropical update at :48 past the hour with John Hope. Good stuff for sure.

[TallyTracker]

Who remembers when John Hope used to say on TWC that the flow of the high cirrus clouds was a sign to follow of where the Hurricane was headed? So true!

https://i.imgur.com/6edOBZ6.gif

The hurricane looks like it is flattening east to west in that loop. Is that the effects of shear or something else?

[SFLcane]

West turn is coming soon...

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1167428531409866755