ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CronkPSU]

Let me say that if there is any good news with Dorian is that it looks like it will remain a small potent major hurricane in size, so hurricane force winds will not cover such a wide area as with Irma, this will be like an Andrew where north Miami barely had any damage but if you went to SW Miami/Dadeland on the Homestead it was catastrophic.
Very important where the eyewall makes landfall but just about all of the FL east coast needs to be prepared just in case, look what happened to the Virgin Islands, it tracked over them on a very short notice.
IMO.

true buttttttt I am guessing Dorian still has at least 2 EWRC (maybe more) before he gets to Florida...and no one is able to predict them or how it will affect the system

[newtotex]

Who remembers when John Hope used to say on TWC that the flow of the high cirrus clouds was a sign to follow of where the Hurricane was headed? So true!

Man I do miss John Hope. I pretty much stopped watching the weather channel after he passed away.

I can help but wonder what we would have to say about Dorian.

Was just about to say that. When I was a kid I would glue to the TV whenever he or Greg Forbes would come on

[HurricaneEnzo]

Let me say that if there is any good news with Dorian is that it looks like it will remain a small potent major hurricane in size, so hurricane force winds will not cover such a wide area as with Irma, this will be like an Andrew where north Miami barely had any damage but if you went to SW Miami/Dadeland on the Homestead it was catastrophic.
Very important where the eyewall makes landfall but just about all of the FL east coast needs to be prepared just in case, look what happened to the Virgin Islands, it tracked over them on a very short notice.
IMO.

Based on what? Landfall is still at least a couple days out one or two EWRCs could easily change that. Not calling you out just curious. Are the models indicating a smaller sized system?

[hurricaneCW]

Let me say that if there is any good news with Dorian is that it looks like it will remain a small potent major hurricane in size, so hurricane force winds will not cover such a wide area as with Irma, this will be like an Andrew where north Miami barely had any damage but if you went to SW Miami/Dadeland on the Homestead it was catastrophic.
Very important where the eyewall makes landfall but just about all of the FL east coast needs to be prepared just in case, look what happened to the Virgin Islands, it tracked over them on a very short notice.
IMO.

I do think Dorian will expand considerably before landfall, models show it too. Not Irma sized but likely bigger than Andrew.

I hope people focus on the flood threat because that's far more damaging and deadly than where the strongest winds will be especially if he slows to a crawl.

I believe Dorian's arrival will also come during the King Tides, which would elevate the surge threat.

[Ritzcraker]

Anyone else notice the erratic flight pattern on one of the planes?

Plane 1


Vs

Plane 2

[Blinhart]

Good morning, havent caught up since 3am ,. nhc moved it north after landfall opposed to west now?

Yeah I was also confused as to why they didn't move the 5 day point yet again.

[NDG]

Let me say that if there is any good news with Dorian is that it looks like it will remain a small potent major hurricane in size, so hurricane force winds will not cover such a wide area as with Irma, this will be like an Andrew where north Miami barely had any damage but if you went to SW Miami/Dadeland on the Homestead it was catastrophic.
Very important where the eyewall makes landfall but just about all of the FL east coast needs to be prepared just in case, look what happened to the Virgin Islands, it tracked over them on a very short notice.
IMO.

I do think Dorian will expand considerably before landfall, models show it too. Not Irma sized but likely bigger than Andrew.

I hope people focus on the flood threat because that's far more damaging and deadly than where the strongest winds will be especially if he slows to a crawl.

I believe Dorian's arrival will also come during the King Tides, which would elevate the surge threat.

True, forgot how much slower Dorian is forecasted to move so storm surge and flooding will at least be a bigger issue than when Andrew even if it was not to get any bigger in size.

[ScottNAtlanta]

EWRCs are never a given with any storm, and forecasting for them is beyond what we can do as it is right now. That said, when I went to bed last night the eye was 15 miles today it is 22 miles. That said in the last VM there was a difference of 13 degrees C inside and outside of the eye (22 in and 7 out) that means it is sucking up a lot of air. That's a very high differential

[will759227]

It looks like they did.. it's 28.1N 81.4W but that's like middle of nowhere all bog or wilderness... Which is good, but it looks like on the map next stop is kisimmee or orlando. I think maybe i still have the gfs stuck in my head and that's what i am thinking of. Not the actual NHC track.

[gatorcane]

Think an eye should be popping out soon. Looks to me it has already turned more WNW. Of course recon can confirm:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[Evil Jeremy]

I see no reason why Dorian won't expand it's wind-field significantly over the next three-four days. I'm positive this will be one of those "size of Florida" storms on approach.

[will759227]

Ok i just looked... yeah the 6am gfs didn't change...So nhc still doesn't think it's going to go as much west as GFS says it's going to. The track just didn't change where i thought it would.

[Kazmit]

I see no reason why Dorian won't expand it's wind-field significantly over the next three-four days. I'm positive this will be one of those "size of Florida" storms on approach.

It's TS-force wind field is already the size of Florida, if that's what you mean.

[Aric Dunn]

I see no reason why Dorian won't expand it's wind-field significantly over the next three-four days. I'm positive this will be one of those "size of Florida" storms on approach.

Well I would imagine at least 1 more ERC will occur. so that will definitely increase the size.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Think an eye should be popping out in a few hours. Looks to me it has already turned more WNW. Of course recon can confirm:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Man that low to his West is still imparting a little shear but also REALLY letting him breathe. That outflow is just shooting out his Western side like a rocket.

[FLpanhandle91]

AF302 about to start a NE to SW pass.

[WeatherEmperor]

I see no reason why Dorian won't expand it's wind-field significantly over the next three-four days. I'm positive this will be one of those "size of Florida" storms on approach.

Well I would imagine at least 1 more ERC will occur. so that will definitely increase the size.

Aric, what size do you estimate the eye will be at landfall?


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[bqknight]

Think an eye should be popping out soon. Looks to me it has already turned more WNW. Of course recon can confirm:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Until an eye pops out - it's really hard to tell. So many illusions with how the clouds move.

Recon is in there too which will help until that happens.

[Aric Dunn]

I see no reason why Dorian won't expand it's wind-field significantly over the next three-four days. I'm positive this will be one of those "size of Florida" storms on approach.

Well I would imagine at least 1 more ERC will occur. so that will definitely increase the size.

Aric, what size do you estimate the eye will be at landfall?


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There is no way to know. internal structural changes are not modeled well.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The eye is currently closed circular and 22 miles wide per the last recon pass