ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

Concur that it looks like an eye is about to clear out. Not sure if that's a prelude to strengthening, but I'd be inclined to say yes. Definitely getting ready for a possible direct hit here in Jupiter!

[gatorcane]

I think the thing to watch for folks that live south of West Palm is whether the WSW turn as it approaches the coast really happens. The UKMET/ICON/HMON/NAM show this and the Euro to some extent.

You may ask why it would do that? Because there is an upper high that is supposed the build over Northern Florida. Some models think the NE flow around that high over South Florida would be enough to nudge a strong Dorian more WSW despite the 500mb ridge weakening some.

gatorcane:
Can you post any graphic of this upper level high?

[fci]

Cantore just asked NHC director Graham this about 15 minutes ago. Graham said it's a discussion they will have in the office today. He pointed to the expected TS winds arriving Sunday 8pm and discussed the 48 hour guideline. You would think the watches will be issued at 5pm. 11pm doesn't make sense, everyone's going to bed. Send the message when people are getting out of work. And tomorrow morning is eating into the 48 hours.

With the slowing of the storm and forecast that my area (Lake Worth) would be closest early Tuesday morning; 48 hour guideline would indicate Hurricane Watches Saturday night or Sunday morning

No, they go by earliest arrival of TS winds

I stand corrected. Might still be correct if the slow down occurs and there might not be watches until Late Saturday; but you are right.

[northjaxpro]

Who remembers when John Hope used to say on TWC that the flow of the high cirrus clouds was a sign to follow of where the Hurricane was headed? So true!

Man I do miss John Hope. I pretty much stopped watching the weather channel after he passed away.

I can help but wonder what we would have to say about Dorian.

Was just about to say that. When I was a kid I would glue to the TV whenever he or Greg Forbes would come on

The late, great John Hope!!

LEGEND! He was a truly remarkable hurricane forecaster, The Weather Channel never was the same after he passed away. Cantore has tried to take the mantle he left behind as the expert, but he can never surpass Hope!

R.I. P.

[jfk08c]

To my untrained eye, it appears the eye is trying to form somewhere near 25.25N 70W on the visible and IR. That would put it a little more north than most models have it pegged at

[TallyTracker]

The eye is popping out on infrared. Also seems to be a small dry spot as well just outside the eyewall. Could be a transient feature.

[cainjamin]

I agree - looks like the eye is about to pop.

[NDG]

I think the thing to watch for folks that live south of West Palm is whether the WSW turn as it approaches the coast really happens. The UKMET/ICON/HMON/NAM show this and the Euro to some extent.

You may ask why it would do that? Because there is an upper high that is supposed the build over Northern Florida. Some models think the NE flow around that high over South Florida would be enough to nudge a strong Dorian more WSW despite the 500mb ridge weakening some.

gatorcane:
Can you post any graphic of this upper level high?

https://i.postimg.cc/P5VJJFbH/gfs-uv250-seus-14.png

This is what Levi C mentioned last night on his youtube update, about this UL ridge forecasted to build NW of Dorian that might compete with the weakness building to the north of Dorian by then to at least push it W if not WSW until a bigger weakness develops to pull it north.

[supercane4867]

Large and formidable eye clearing out

[emeraldislenc]

Yes John Hope was the best. I sure miss him. The Weather Channel has not been the same.

[GCANE]

Two counterpoising eyewall hot towers rotating.
Perfect latent heat transfer into the core.
Will see an eye pop shortly.

[NDG]

Crazy how the background surface pressure around Dorian is still in the 1014mb-1016mb range.

[NotSparta]

Appears there's an eye trying to clear

[NDG]

There it is!

[ATCcane]

To my untrained eye, it appears the eye is trying to form somewhere near 25.25N 70W on the visible and IR. That would put it a little more north than most models have it pegged at

Still below 25n by a decent amount.

[jfk08c]

Large and formidable eye clearing out

https://i.imgur.com/1Mq3IdE.jpg

Could someone attempt to explain this for me? On the GOES16 IR, you can clearly see the eye forming above the tip of Florida which is at roughly 25N. However, looking at the TropicalTidbits IR, it looks to be forming south of that. Does that just have to do with the format or what?

[mpic]

I wish I could remember the source, but regarding the Cat 4 down to Cat1...he explained that you need to look at the predicted time line. It makes landfall as as a Cat4 but sits over land for 24 hours which will cause it to lose strength to a Cat1. Is this plausible?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Did dry air get into the core of Dorian again? Weird spot right above the eye looks like a dry spot on IR.

[Jr0d]

Yes John Hope was the best. I sure miss him. The Weather Channel has not been the same.

At 2 minutes, he have John Hope discussing Andrew when it was just north and west of where Dorian is now. Interesting to look at the satellite of Andrew then vs Dorian today.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4AWI8uGflR4&t=219s

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Anyone else notice the erratic flight pattern on one of the planes?

They might have been flying over NOAA's Hurricane Underwater Gliders again. This from two days ago:
https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2019/08/2 ... 9-7pm-edt/

Map of gliders with data at the bottom of the page:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/goos/gli ... ations.php

I didn't check to see if that matches where the plane was.

About the gliders:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/goos/gli ... rs-project

NOAA HRD Blog:
https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/
Information about NOAA missions.

NOAA data on hurricanes, like NOAA mission paths for some missions:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/hurr.html

For Dorian:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pag ... ssion.html