ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks Bllnheart

[gatorcane]

The 00Z GFS looks to landfall between West Palm Beach and Boca Raton:

[Kazmit]

Brutal forecast by the nam3k

https://i.imgur.com/ikzuy3I.png

Is that a giant eyeball of death or a hurricane?

[Highteeld]

Brutal forecast by the nam3k

https://i.imgur.com/ikzuy3I.png

Is that a giant eyeball of death or a hurricane?

looks more like a grape jawbreaker if you ask me

[HDGator]

I have to admit I am getting worried for us in SE Florida with the 00Z guidance coming in. Crossing my fingers the Euro shows something more positive.

I am getting very worried for you guys in S. Fla, assuming no major change in the Euro track I’ll be boarding my flight to FLL Saturday morning

Stay safe. PM me if you need anything; I'm in northern PB County but if the need is there I can help.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thats a great question

[gatorcane]

I have to admit I am getting worried for us in SE Florida with the 00Z guidance coming in. Crossing my fingers the Euro shows something more positive.

I am getting very worried for you guys in S. Fla, assuming no major change in the Euro track I’ll be boarding my flight to FLL Saturday morning

Stay safe. PM me if you need anything; I'm in northern PB County but if the need is there I can help.

Thanks HDGator still some time for things to change at 102 hours until landfall so I am optimistic we could see some more shifts.

[Aric Dunn]

at 90 hours the ridging from the plains is expanding east much more than the 18z. no north on this run.. and the 300mb flow is also present.. wsw to sw from the gfs coming ?

Aric, any chance that Dorian gets 'handed off' to this stronger ridge to the west after coming to the edge of the Bermuda high?

well yes.. there were quite a few members yesterday showing it making to the central gulf and farther.. its low chance but not zero..

[Jonny]

ukmet.

https://i.ibb.co/JR90Cch/Capture.png

So based on this, it would likely turn northeast near / south of Tallahassee (sparing Pensacola, PCB, etc)?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Goodnight all not doing another 1:45 for the EURO again tonight.

[fci]

https://i.imgur.com/a16WIgz.gif

I’ve been traveling.
What happened to the GFS taking the storm into The Space Coast?

[catskillfire51]

Landfall looks boynton beach at 963mb 104hrs

[KC7NEC]

hugs alll the way up the east coast after getting feet wet again

[cjrciadt]

I could feel the eyewall from three different angles on that run!

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is showing a scenario that is very close to a Donna 1960 but 40miles farther north

[CronkPSU]

this GFS run looks like something someone would wishcast if they hated FLorida...would take out WPB, Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jax!!!

[jdray]

I could feel the eyewall from three different angles on that run!

I'm trying to imagine the cost of a strong storm on that path.

SE Florida, Tampa, Orlando, JAX. Even Tallahassee would take some damage.

[jdray]

this GFS run looks like something someone would wishcast if they hated FLorida...would take out WPB, Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jax!!!

This looks like Donna 1960, except the costs would be astronomical.

[SFLcane]

Good evening guys, thank god I took to the stores with me and the wife early and we got water and supplies cause it’s about to be a mad house across SFL. Let me say if this thing does hit with 140 mph winds this will be like no other hurricane most have ever experienced across metro SFL since Andrew. I urge you to get ready now do not wait. I see the 00z GFS with data came in even further South.

[StPeteMike]

The 0zGFS is showing a scenario that is very close to a Donna 1960 but 40miles farther north

Very good comparison. Let’s see if anything is able to break down the ridge like Donna had and when that occurs.