ATL: DORIAN - Models

[will759227]

[northjaxpro]

https://i.imgur.com/a16WIgz.gif

GFS run here is playing catch- up to the UKMET solution here in this run loop.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF pretty much unchanged..

[caneseddy]

HWRF as a Cat 4 heading towards the Treasure Coast

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF as a Cat 4 heading towards the Treasure Coast

yep coming in farther south and straight west. no north component.

[AtlanticWind]

I had the same bad feeling when Irma was 3 or so days away.
We were lucky on the east coast of florida

I Apologize to the people that were in its direct path for saying this
But it took a path thru florida that was a little less populated and
still was a terrible storm.

[northjaxpro]

ukmet.

https://i.ibb.co/JR90Cch/Capture.png

So based on this, it would likely turn northeast near / south of Tallahassee (sparing Pensacola, PCB, etc)?

Dorian would move into the extreme Norheast Gulf/ Apalachee Bay region in this situation, as he turns north /northeast and across North Florida next week.. But, this is NOT to take the.panhandle out of the picture by any.means. Everyone out there should stay vigilant . The ridge could end up much stronger to push Dorian as far west as the North Central GOM. That would put all the Florida Panhandle region still in the mix should that happen.

EVERY THING is still on the table to this point!! STAY VIGILANT!!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

HWRF pretty much unchanged..

Aric, I have been watching that upper low or whatever it may become cross the gulf from east to west for days. Some models show Dorian wanting to look like he would follow in the same footsteps but turns up north instead. There is not that much distance between the two. Why would one go due west and the other slow down or even stall then turn north or even NE. Sure looks like Dorian should just keep going west following path of the other low?

[lsuhurricane]

[galaxy401]

Nearly all of those ensembles have Dorian entering the Gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF pretty much unchanged..

Aric, I have been watching that upper low or whatever it may become cross the gulf from east to west for days. Some models show Dorian wanting to look like he would follow in the same footsteps but turns up north instead. There is not that much distance between the two. Why would one go due west and the other slow down or even stall then turn north or even NE. Sure looks like Dorian should just keep going west following path of the other low?

there is enough separation.

should only follow it for a few days then split off as the upper low will tuck under the ridging over the central us and texas.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF chugging west after landfall. .. well faster not south.. like 12 hours faster.

[Blinhart]

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL05_2019083000_GEFS_large.png?20190830053102

That there will get a lot of people bottoms to pucker up and cause some problems. Hoping this isn't a sign of changes.

[Jonny]

But, this is NOT to take the.panhandle out of the picture by any.means. Everyone out there should stay vigilant . The ridge could end up much stronger to push Dorian as far west as the North Central GOM. That would put all the Florida Panhandle region still in the mix should that happen.

EVERY THING is still on the table to this point!! STAY VIGILANT!!!

lol, been watching since day one and still am.

Have dealt with hurricanes in the FL panhandle before, but now we live a bit further inland, and while nothing has come close, there is a first time for everything.

[Aric Dunn]

initialized good for 00z euro 6 hour motion is wnw to nnw.

strength is not right though.

[AtlanticWind]

initialized good for 00z euro 6 hour motion is wnw to nnw.

strength is not right though.

If your looking on tropical tidbits I think that's low resolution model
I could be wrong

[northjaxpro]

Folks at the Hurricane Center are probably starting to really feel worried about this storm.

I think everybody is starting to feel really worried about this one. It’s starting to sink in for me that this is going to be really bad for our state.

Reality hit me beginning Wednesday evening when it became very apparent that Dorian would not only miss interaction with Hispaniola, but missed Puerto Rico just to their east. I knew Dorian missing land interaction with those two major hurdles in the Eastern Caribbean meant HUGE, HUGE trouble for the Bahamas, Florida and the Southeast U.S. Coast.

[caneseddy]

Making the turn at 48 hrs on the Euro

[Aric Dunn]

Making the turn at 48 hrs on the Euro

makes the turn at 30 hours... but thats a little late.. its already started..

[Kat5]

Looks as if the Euro is coming in north this run. Ridge isn’t as profound as the 12z (yesterday)