ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Hammy
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#341 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:46 pm

I'd go 90kt for the intensity based on the latest pass.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#342 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:48 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Nawtamet wrote:How long does it still have before encountering the shear?

Thinking if it will attain major status before so.


That is likely by early tomorrow. Given its tiny size, it may unravel quite rapidly if shear is as strong as advertised.


you the 300 to 20 0mb steering keeps it south more a long the edge of the shear axis.. as it is doing presently.. its riding the fence thats for sure..

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#343 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:51 pm

Hammy wrote:I'd go 90kt for the intensity based on the latest pass.


That's what I would go with too, although 95 kt may be reasonable as well.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#344 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:52 pm

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#345 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:52 pm

Hammy wrote:I'd go 90kt for the intensity based on the latest pass.


Yeah, is a solid Cat 2.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#346 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:58 pm

hmm.. the convection is starting to shift to the wsw side of the center.. the nnw flow may really start pushing on this..

if this two recon passes showing 275..280 at most ?? motion is a sign... well then things get interesting..
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#347 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:13 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:hmm.. the convection is starting to shift to the wsw side of the center.. the nnw flow may really start pushing on this..

if this two recon passes showing 275..280 at most ?? motion is a sign... well then things get interesting..


Check out the dropsonde to the west of Jerry a couple of hours ago, solid deep layer easterly steerings that it is in, it will be interesting tonight.

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#348 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:16 pm

HWRF nailed this round of intensification from Jerry today.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#349 Postby AubreyStorm » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:37 pm



Maybe will turn due west? Temporary?
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#350 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:41 pm

AubreyStorm wrote:


Maybe will turn due west? Temporary?

still look wnw not west
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#351 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:45 pm

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JERRY STRONGER...

11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 19
Location: 18.0°N 57.2°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 976 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#352 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:47 pm

3 hour average heading of 261 degrees or West.

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#353 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:56 pm

Are they trying to make a statement here that "they" better not cut off funding for recon flights?

It should be noted that this is
substantially higher than the intensity estimates provided from
satellite data, and underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance
of tropical cyclones
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#354 Postby StormTracker » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:58 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:3 hour average heading of 261 degrees or West.

https://i.ibb.co/jDY2txb/Capture.png

:uarrow: So just a smidget north of due west?
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#355 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:01 pm

StormTracker wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:3 hour average heading of 261 degrees or West.

https://i.ibb.co/jDY2txb/Capture.png

:uarrow: So just a smidget north of due west?


yeppers... for the last 3 hours.

NHC does a 6 hours average. so come the 2am if this keeps up they will change.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#356 Postby tgenius » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:01 pm

StormTracker wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:3 hour average heading of 261 degrees or West.

https://i.ibb.co/jDY2txb/Capture.png

:uarrow: So just a smidget north of due west?


No. WSW, and not a smidge either. True WSW at 261 or damn close.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#357 Postby drezee » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:01 pm

Recon says 17.87N not 18.0 N
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#358 Postby StormTracker » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:11 pm

tgenius wrote:
StormTracker wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:3 hour average heading of 261 degrees or West.

https://i.ibb.co/jDY2txb/Capture.png

:uarrow: So just a smidget north of due west?


No. WSW, and not a smidge either. True WSW at 261 or damn close.

Yeah just saw that on the IR loop. He's riding that 18N line with a little WSW dip at 02.55Z...ST
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#359 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:40 pm

4.5 hour heading vs the NHC forecast.

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#360 Postby CaribJam » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:54 pm

Aric, what could be causing Jerry to be heading in this direction vs the NHC forecast? And how could this movement affect the long-term track?
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