ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

OOF my previous comment did NOT age well. Hope everyone is okay not something you'd expect to happen in 2019

14 were on board the ship. It's uncertain the condition or status right now. This is something you'd expect in 1919, not 2019.

El Faro had departed Jacksonville a few years ago and went down in Hurricane Joaquin, complete incompetence by the captain and shipping company

[facemane]

That should not happen in this day and age. Shades of El Faro, but at least it mentioned they were on a life raft.

Sadly it does. Off topic, but I'm a fan of the discovery channel's deadliest catch. A few seasons ago,a Captain of a crab boat decided to leave Kodiak island knowing
he was heading into a 940 mb. low . The only survivors were a crewman and himself. I know money is important,but not to the point of certain death. You take your
losses on the catch and live to fish another day

[somethingfunny]

The search area is around 16N/40W.... Lorenzo's center passed directly over this region near peak intensity yesterday.

No idea what this boat was doing there. Even if we allowed for a forecast track error of up to 100 miles (about 1.5 degrees of lat/lon, and I think Lorenzo's track forecast has been more accurate than that and for the intensity forecast Wednesday calling for a mere borderline cat2/3 at this forecast point.... There's only one excuse for having your ship in that vicinity at that time and that would be engine problems. And if that's the case... God, what a terrifying situation that would be.

It's a a somewhat lucky coincidence that the recon flight just happens to be in the area to assist with the search.... But I wish the flight had been yesterday evening!

[hurricanes1234]

Being pummeled by shear.

Any update on the rescue mission and the 14 people who had been on board the vessel?

[Fishing]

Being pummeled by shear.

Any update on the rescue mission and the 14 people who had been on board the vessel?

They have created a Facebook group for any updates . I don’t know how “official” it is however I did see the wife of the captain responded to one of the posts . Facebook group is called Bourbon Rhodes Rescue.



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[1900hurricane]

Lorenzo is holding its own right now.

[NDG]

I think Lorenzo is trying to get back up to a Cat 4 now that is over SSTs in the 28-28.5C range and shear has led up a little bit.
20190928 1200 22.0 44.5 T5.5/5.5 13L LORENZO

[wx98]

Eye is popping back out on IR

[Highteeld]

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 SEP 2019 Time : 135025 UTC
Lat : 22:06:48 N Lon : 44:51:38 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 951.5mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.7 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : +3.1C Cloud Region Temp : -68.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[1900hurricane]

OW embedded in LG and surrounded by B is still good for a DT of 5.5. Coupled with a semi-recent ATMS intensity estimate of 106 kt, I might set intensity at 105 kt right now.

[Highteeld]

2019SEP28 142025 5.6 951.5 104.6 5.6 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 8.69 -68.64 EYE 27 IR 47.7 22.18 44.86 FCST GOES16 42.8
cat 4, here we come

[NDG]

NHC latest forecast shows Lorenzo back down to a Cat 2 tomorrow morning, I really doubt that as it will still be near 28C waters and turning NNE parallel to the shear. I wouldn't doubt that it remains a Cat 3 through at least Monday morning.

[msbee]

Being pummeled by shear.

Any update on the rescue mission and the 14 people who had been on board the vessel?

They have created a Facebook group for any updates . I don’t know how “official” it is however I did see the wife of the captain responded to one of the posts . Facebook group is called Bourbon Rhodes Rescue.


The latest update says 4 have been rescued so far.


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[1900hurricane]

Recon is on the way to Lorenzo again today. Hopefully no more boats decided to go through the hurricane to necessitate the diversion of a research mission.

[SouthDadeFish]

FYI NOAA42 is doing a search and rescue again today but NOAA43 should be doing a research mission into Lorenzo. The original plan was to have both planes sampling the storm.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1177979187958833154

[artist]

Hope the crewmembers are okay

3 were rescued-

BOURBON offshore tug distressed in Atlantic, 14 crew waiting rescue UPDATE sank?
Posted in Accidents by Mikhail Voytenko on Sep 27, 2019 at 03:07.

BOURBON offshore tug distressed in Atlantic, 14 crew waiting rescue UPDATE sank?
Offshore AHT tug BOURBON RHODE issued distress signal in the morning Sep 26 in Atlantic, in vicinity 15 35N 040 10W, some 970 nm due W of Cape Verde. The ship while en route from Las Palmas Canary islands, to Georgetown Guyana, was caught in cyclone, suffering massive water ingress in ship’s compartments, 14 crew readying for evacuation. MRCC Antilles-Guyana directed the only ship in the area around distressed tug, bulk carrier SSI EXCELLENT (IMO 9693757), to assist.
SSI EXCELLENT is to reach tug in the morning Sep 27 local time, around 1200 UTC. Latest BOURBON RHODE available AIS signal dated 1222 UTC Sep 26, tug moving at reduced speed in NW direction, probably trying to keep wind/sea on bow.

Sep 27 1420 UTC UPDATE: SSI EXCELLENT has obviously, arrived at the scene, moving at slow speed. No information yet what’s going on, but BOURBON RHODE AIS is still off, last signal received 25 hours ago.

Sep 28 UPDATE: Now news as of 0630 UTC whatsoever, except BOURBON press-release which is no news, either. Bulk carrier SSI EXCELLENT is circling around, tug’s AIS is off during 42 hours, looks like tug sank, and bulk carrier is in SAR mode. But it’s not confirmed yet, and hopefully, I’m mistaken, bulk carrier trying to assist disabled tug. Weather seems to be rough.

Sep 28 1520 UTC:BOURBON offshore tug reportedly sank, 3 rescued, 11 probably missing or dead
According to Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, AHL tug BOURBON RHODE understood sank, 3 crew including 2 Ukrainians rescued, fate of 11 unknown. Bulk carrier SSI EXCELLENCE according to track, left SAR area. MFA statement refers to owner information. Information not yet verified, and not complete, let’s hope for the best.

FleetMon Vessel Risk Rating: https://www.fleetmon.com/services/vessel-risk-rating/

Truly sad. Glad any made it out alive, though.

[Highteeld]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09281249
SATCON: MSLP = 950 hPa MSW = 109 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 106.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 105 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 250 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 2.0 knots Source: IR

[Highteeld]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09281249
SATCON: MSLP = 950 hPa MSW = 109 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 106.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 105 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 250 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 2.0 knots Source: IR

[Kazmit]

Looks like it's cranking back up again. The CDO looks like its gotten bigger too.