ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

I expect the CDO to obscure the eye again as the structure of the storm continues to improve.

[BYG Jacob]

https://i.imgur.com/kEPhjut.jpg

Climatology favors something away from Florida... Maybe a trend...

Climatology is useless in this scenario.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely looking a little less squashed vs what we saw at sunrise. Also kind of unsettling to see the spiral bands basically pointing at where Dorian is going to go.

[HurricaneEnzo]

https://i.imgur.com/kEPhjut.jpg

Climatology favors something away from Florida... Maybe a trend...

Would be great but Flo proved last year it doesn't always work that way.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

FYI -- the ISS is currently flying directly over Dorian.

[KWT]

https://i.imgur.com/kEPhjut.jpg

Climatology favors something away from Florida... Maybe a trend...

unfortunately most of those are trash as most already had significant northwards motion. Only a couple have the west motion that is already starting.

[BYG Jacob]

FYI -- the ISS is currently flying directly over Dorian.

They gonna be taking any pictures?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

FYI -- the ISS is currently flying directly over Dorian.

They gonna be taking any pictures?

Yes, there was a beautiful live shot of the storm from the ISS cameras.

[Kazmit]

FYI -- the ISS is currently flying directly over Dorian.

They gonna be taking any pictures?

Yes, there was a beautiful live shot of the storm from the ISS cameras.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21X5lGlDOfg

[psyclone]

The ridge is killing me! I thought by now we would have a general agreement with landfall position but we have gone from Miami to Cape and a sharper north turn than previously.

I’ll wait until this evening to start placing my eggs into any baskets.

Even Irma’s path shifted to the west coast just under 3 days before landfall. Nothing is set in stone yet at all. We generally know where it’ll go, but it’s too soon to pinpoint exact towns and county’s.

Or it may just miss us all to the east, who knows!

Yeah that is possible. Imagine if the northwest turn happens earlier and the worst stays offshore. It could just as easily end up farther west but there are still ways to avoid disaster here. Just don't count on such a scenario bailing us out. Until the eye is on approach...there are usually better options out there. Irma just gave us this lesson

[BYG Jacob]

They gonna be taking any pictures?

Yes, there was a beautiful live shot of the storm from the ISS cameras.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21X5lGlDOfg

Stunning

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/kEPhjut.jpg

Climatology favors something away from Florida... Maybe a trend...

unfortunately most of those are trash as most already had significant northwards motion. Only a couple have the west motion that is already starting.

Where do you see that?

[GCANE]

[HurricaneEric]

I don’t know if this is more appropriate here or in the models thread, but considering its more of a discussion post I figured posting it here:

Has the new, upgraded GFS fixed the GFS-Legacy’s tendency to under-do and/or weaken ridges? Is there any evidence so far to support it?

I’m liking the north trends so far in the 12z suite of models but I have this feeling the models still haven’t finished its windshield wipe effect and it’ll swing south again.


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[ConvergenceZone]

When all is said and done, I still think this has a good chance of going out to sea, but probably just barely, just barely hitting the coast and then turning north... (just my opinion, based on the recent model trends), but it's best to assume that it's not going to go out to sea, just in case it doesn't...

***this is my opinion only. Please consult the NHC for official forecast. ***

[BYG Jacob]

https://i.imgur.com/kEPhjut.jpg

Climatology favors something away from Florida... Maybe a trend...

unfortunately most of those are trash as most already had significant northwards motion. Only a couple have the west motion that is already starting.

Where do you see that?

Have you looked at the NHC forecast, or models, or the storms current motion?

[Astromanía]

It looks so much better now, cuz it looks like an hurricane finally lol, if only it was at the middle of the ocean without making landfall anywhere...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[KWT]

When all is said and done, I still think this has a good chance of going out to sea, but probably just barely, just barely hitting the coast and then turning north... (just my opinion, based on the recent model trends), but it's best to assume that it's not going to go out to sea, just in case it doesn't...

***this is my opinion only. Please consult the NHC for official forecast. ***

For sure, if it does miss Florida its going to be a very close call, probably close enough that the eyewall still comes ashore regardless, so probably best to prepare even if it does just stay offshore.

[FLpanhandle91]

When all is said and done, I still think this has a good chance of going out to sea, but probably just barely, just barely hitting the coast and then turning north... (just my opinion, based on the recent model trends), but it's best to assume that it's not going to go out to sea, just in case it doesn't...

***this is my opinion only. Please consult the NHC for official forecast. ***

GFS has been shifting a lot. Would not call it a trend.