ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NFLnut]

Not sure if our next recon flight is having issues and headed back to base or is just having to change flight trajectory due to daytime convection over north FL:
https://i.imgur.com/UDgBlVz.png

Never a good sign that the recon flight is high tailing it AWAY from the storm!

[ricka47]

I’m liking the north trends so far in the 12z suite of models but I have this feeling the models still haven’t finished its windshield wipe effect and it’ll swing south again.

A perfect case of "another man's trash -- another man's treasure" that you're liking today's north trends. I was loving yesterday's south trends!!

Exactly - while a southward turn may be better for us here in NFL, I don't want to wish this thing (like I could do that anyway) on anyone. OTS is what I want to see and away from land.

[craptacular]

https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1167470388605018112

Not sure if our next recon flight is having issues and headed back to base or is just having to change flight trajectory due to daytime convection over north FL:

That is supposedly the buoy drop flight that is shown having turned around. It took off at 1502z, which was on schedule according to the plan of the day. Wonder what happened?

Edit: FYI, the next "regular" low-level invest flights are not scheduled to take off until 2030z (NOAA) and 2115z (AF).

[Blinhart]

Will we see a track adjustment possibly or is that only the 11 and 5 ones?

Track isn't adjusted at intermediate advisories.

They at times do make adjustments if it is merited, but right now I don't think anything is merited to make any drastic changes.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1167487465059282945

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1167487960650080258

[KWT]

I seem to remember that upshear is what helped really kick Michael into overdrive last year, it was the first time I've really watched that kind of evolution, was so interesting to see.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1167490604873502720

[Ritzcraker]

Lots of lightning around the center...

[StPeteMike]

Upgrade to Cat3 at 2pm or 5pm?

[galaxy401]

The eye is starting look well defined now in the more recent frames. Major is very close probably.

[EquusStorm]

Something I just realized, we entered 2019 on a record streak of three consecutive years with category five hurricanes (almost four; Joaquin was VERY close) and also a record back to back years with category five landfalls. Statistically it would be beyond ridiculous if that streak continued, but it's not completely out of the question, with the Bahamas in the crosshairs this time.

[Kingarabian]

Morning folks. Looks like Dorians eye has finally cleared out and continues to warm.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Something I just realized, we entered 2019 on a record streak of three consecutive years with category five hurricanes (almost four; Joaquin was VERY close) and also a record back to back years with category five landfalls. Statistically it would be beyond ridiculous if that streak continued, but it's not completely out of the question, with the Bahamas in the crosshairs this time.

I feel like we've been (myself included) badly neglecting how badly the Bahamas are going to impacted by this one. NHC track basically has Freeport in the eye.

[aperson]

The moisture tap from the ITCZ is cutting off and it's reconfiguring its fetch from the high TPW region to its west now.

[tropicwatch]

HH reported some 111 and 113mph surface winds non flagged outbound.

[NDG]

This might be enough for upgrade to Cat 3

172030 2442N 07008W 6985 02903 9753 +132 +079 219063 070 099 045 00
172100 2441N 07007W 6926 02997 9826 +086 +078 227084 095 097 058 00

[Blown Away]

Dorian appears to be moving WNW or @300... Is he moving a little faster than predicted?

[BYG Jacob]

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1167487960650080258

Really starting to sustain deep convection.

[JPmia]

It doesn't appear to be increasing in size, is it forecast to expand the tropical storm and hurricane force winds outward more?