ATL: DORIAN - Models

[aperson]

00z ECMWF ensemble members:

Well at least we don't have to worry about under-dispersion.

[caneman]

Looks like we got us an old fashioned consensus:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/z7sF2W0/bourbon-old-fashioned-720x720-recipe.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/bmGRqKL/ecmwf-z500-mslp-watl-5.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/pKmMx6j/gem-z500-mslp-watl-17.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/km8XrHn/gfs-z500-mslp-watl-17.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/n041swN/gfs-legacy-z500-mslp-watl-17.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/LYv8MXz/icon-z500-mslp-watl-33.png [/url]
dice gen

Yep, unfortunately it’s not good for South Florida...

And Central Florida. Heck the whole state possibly. Irma part 2 in affecting most of the state

[USTropics]

Slight shift north and west on the ensemble swath trend from 12z:

[Bocadude85]

06z NAM coming in farther south, timing seems the same. Yes I know it’s not a tropical model.

[USTropics]

00z UKMET ensembles trend west after first landfall, past 4 run trend:

[KWT]

Interesting to see the UKMO ensembles moving further west, whilst the ECM ensembles seem to be still suggesting a near 50-50 split between the storm hitting C/S.Florida and recurving towards the Carolinas/Georgia.

Weight of all the other operational models would suggest the Florida path is still more likely...but the ECM ensembles shouldn't be discounted, especially as the 12z ECM went for that path.

Also interesting to see how exceptionally consistent the UKMO operational has been recently.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like we got us an old fashioned consensus:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/z7sF2W0/bourbon-old-fashioned-720x720-recipe.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/bmGRqKL/ecmwf-z500-mslp-watl-5.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/pKmMx6j/gem-z500-mslp-watl-17.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/km8XrHn/gfs-z500-mslp-watl-17.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/n041swN/gfs-legacy-z500-mslp-watl-17.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/LYv8MXz/icon-z500-mslp-watl-33.png [/url]
dice gen

Yep, unfortunately it’s not good for South Florida...

And Central Florida. Heck the whole state possibly. Irma part 2 in affecting most of the state

Yes Irma part 2 but this round will be likely much worse than
what Irma initially brought in 2017. This coming in with Dorian will bring Category 4 impact at landfall and a very prolonged flooding event, both with torrential rainfall and Storm Surge well into next week.

[Bocadude85]

6z ICON making landfall in Miami at 93 hours, faster then the 0z run.

[KWT]

06z ICON still moving WSW through the Bahamas and making landfall pretty close to Miami on this run overnight on Mon-Tues.

[jlauderdal]

6z ICON making landfall in Miami at 93 hours, faster then the 0z run.

icon has been very consistent with the southerly route...will have to go with the euro and gfs and their trends...that said, everyone from key largo to the cape better prepare for a direct hit and everyone else middle keys to the state line prepare for hurricane-force winds...northerly shear was promising on the euro, maybe a positive trend and keep the intensification to something under a 3

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS initialized:

[caneman]

6z ICON making landfall in Miami at 93 hours, faster then the 0z run.

icon has been very consistent with the southerly route...will have to go with the euro and gfs and their trends...that said, everyone from key largo to the cape better prepare for a direct hit and everyone else middle keys to the state line prepare for hurricane-force winds...northerly shear was promising on the euro, maybe a positive trend and keep the intensification to something under a 3

I see no positive in what the euro said as far as shear becasue a. It is minimal and b. The FSU super ensemble agrees with the Hwrf in no shear and predicting a powerful hurricane

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS hours 0-30:

[jlauderdal]

6z ICON making landfall in Miami at 93 hours, faster then the 0z run.

icon has been very consistent with the southerly route...will have to go with the euro and gfs and their trends...that said, everyone from key largo to the cape better prepare for a direct hit and everyone else middle keys to the state line prepare for hurricane-force winds...northerly shear was promising on the euro, maybe a positive trend and keep the intensification to something under a 3

I see no positive in what the euro said as far as shear becasue a. It is minimal and b. The FSU super ensemble agrees with the Hwrf in no shear and predicting a powerful hurricane

fair enough but a little shear can make a difference between roofs coming off and not and it could be the start of a trend, the models could be picking up on something that develops to something more positive later or they can be wrong

e.g, we only need the turn to happen 100 miles or less to the east and no sofla landfall, a little change in tractory, all of this stuff adds up...it can salos go the other direction too, prepare for a major hurricane and hope its less

also
Although
overall the environment ahead of the storm appears conducive for
strengthening, some models (in particular the ECMWF) suggest that
some northerly shear could come into play while Dorian moves
through the northwestern Bahamas

[Kingarabian]

6z ICON making landfall in Miami at 93 hours, faster then the 0z run.

icon has been very consistent with the southerly route...will have to go with the euro and gfs and their trends...that said, everyone from key largo to the cape better prepare for a direct hit and everyone else middle keys to the state line prepare for hurricane-force winds...northerly shear was promising on the euro, maybe a positive trend and keep the intensification to something under a 3

I see no positive in what the euro said as far as shear becasue a. It is minimal and b. The FSU super ensemble agrees with the Hwrf in no shear and predicting a powerful hurricane

Some shear and a nicely timed ERC would really help. But these are good points and we should discuss this in the Dorian - Discussion thread as well.

[Bocadude85]

icon has been very consistent with the southerly route...will have to go with the euro and gfs and their trends...that said, everyone from key largo to the cape better prepare for a direct hit and everyone else middle keys to the state line prepare for hurricane-force winds...northerly shear was promising on the euro, maybe a positive trend and keep the intensification to something under a 3

I see no positive in what the euro said as far as shear becasue a. It is minimal and b. The FSU super ensemble agrees with the Hwrf in no shear and predicting a powerful hurricane

fair enough but a little shear can make a difference between roofs coming off and not and it could be the start of a trend, the models could be picking up on something that develops to something more positive later or they can be wrong

e.g, we only need the turn to happen 100 miles or less to the east and no sofla landfall, a little change in tractory, all of this stuff adds up...it can salos go the other direction too, prepare for a major hurricane and hope its less

also
Although
overall the environment ahead of the storm appears conducive for
strengthening, some models (in particular the ECMWF) suggest that
some northerly shear could come into play while Dorian moves
through the northwestern Bahamas

The only caveat to that is the Euro begins to intensify Dorian in the final hours before landfall in S.Fla.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS heights trend of the 5 most recent run @ hour 42:

[caneman]

icon has been very consistent with the southerly route...will have to go with the euro and gfs and their trends...that said, everyone from key largo to the cape better prepare for a direct hit and everyone else middle keys to the state line prepare for hurricane-force winds...northerly shear was promising on the euro, maybe a positive trend and keep the intensification to something under a 3

I see no positive in what the euro said as far as shear becasue a. It is minimal and b. The FSU super ensemble agrees with the Hwrf in no shear and predicting a powerful hurricane

Some shear and a nicely timed ERC would really help. But these are good points and we should discuss this in the Dorian - Discussion thread as well.

If someone wants to carry it over there, however, forecasting strength is also part of modeling

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS hours 24-48:

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS hour 60:

About to affect the Bahamas in 60 hours.