ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ouragans]

Upgrade to Cat3 at 2pm or 5pm?

I think 2PM, there's no time to be conservative anymore.

[supercane4867]

Likely a major right now. Next recon will find out

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Impressive.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

MSLP down to 968mb, winds 110-115mph per recon. There might be enough evidence to upgrade at 2pm based on the most recent pass. If not, then likely at 5pm.

[EquusStorm]

CDO has remarkably rounded in the last four hours and the eye is getting clearer and clearer; this time we might indeed be starting a round of rapid deepening. Sky's the limit when it finally breaks away from the dry air to its south.

[StormPyrate]

Cut the cord this year and dropped cable, have not missed it until now.
As bad as the weather channel was, it was good to keep on when a hurricane was approaching.
A good business opportunity for the right person, 24/7 weather streaming channel for those who told cable companies to shove it

[alienstorm]

This is scary looking definitely a CAT 3 on its way to a CAT 4.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

VDM suggests Dorian has become a major hurricane.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 17:47Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 36

A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 17:07:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.78N 70.22W
B. Center Fix Location: 448 statute miles (721 km) to the E (92°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,855m (9,367ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 970mb (28.65 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 165° at 5kts (From the SSE at 6mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 97kts (111.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the NW (306°) of center fix at 17:04:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 92kts (From the NE at 105.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NW (307°) of center fix at 17:03:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 99kts (113.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the SE (135°) of center fix at 17:20:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 225° at 97kts (From the SW at 111.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the SE (137°) of center fix at 17:21:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,065m (10,056ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 102kts (~ 117.4mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (325°) from the flight level center at 15:11:30Z

[galaxy401]

Major hurricane officially.

[NDG]

Is official.

2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 30
Location: 24.8°N 70.3°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

[wx98]

They pulled the trigger. First major of 2019

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is the part where even the NHC forecast will probably struggle with intensity. Shear is beginning to lesson, the structure is quickly improving with a very warm eye now apparent on visible. Unless an EWRC begins there's not much to stop Dorian today from strengthening in a brisk manner. This possibility is suggested and has been portrayed well by the HWRF, which shows Dorian approaching Category 4 status by this evening.

[rolldamntoad]

Cut the cord this year and dropped cable, have not missed it until now.
As bad as the weather channel was, it was good to keep on when a hurricane was approaching.
A good business opportunity for the right person, 24/7 weather streaming channel for those who told cable companies to shove it

Pluto.tv, I think, has WeatherNation and is free. For individual news stations, the NewsOn app (iOS, Android, Roku, etc.) is useful and also free but only has certain stations from certain market. FRNDLY TV has TWC, but is $6/mo.

[KWT]

Is official.

2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 30
Location: 24.8°N 70.3°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

Hardly surprising they have pulled the trigger on that one, it was mighty close during the last few recon legs, and its clearly only getting stronger at the moment as well.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1167497551446102016

[BLUEBIRDFLA]

Cut the cord this year and dropped cable, have not missed it until now.
As bad as the weather channel was, it was good to keep on when a hurricane was approaching.
A good business opportunity for the right person, 24/7 weather streaming channel for those who told cable companies to shove it

We watch Weather Nation on the Roku after we cut the cord.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1167490407107846144




 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1167498203131981826

[northjaxpro]

This is scary looking definitely a CAT 3 on its way to a CAT 4.
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/2051/y1SaTY.gif

WOW!! Simply awestruck!! Beautiful eye satellite presentation
££
Impressive, extremely dangerous Dorian!!

[Kosmo Kitty]

I have a chance to move my Sunday afternoon flight out of FLL to Sunday morning out of MIA, for a huge cost. Still I would do it if it makes a big difference.

Any suggestions?

[HurricaneEnzo]

Possibly the beginnings of another big hot tower started to pop along the SW eyewall in the last couple of frames.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... =1038.9375