ATL: DORIAN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16023
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3461 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:50 am

06z GFS hours 48-72:
Image
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16023
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3462 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:54 am

06z GFS hour 84:
Image
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16023
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3463 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:57 am

06z GFS Florida/Palm Beach landfall hour 96:
Image
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
caneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1447
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:44 am
Location: Clearwater Beach, Fl

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3464 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:59 am

Kingarabian wrote:06z GFS Florida/Palm Beach landfall hour 96:
https://i.imgur.com/1b2R4MW.gif


Yikes due west and right over the lake. Looks like it has picked up speed though and not quite the stall?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3465 Postby sponger » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:59 am

GFs legacy keeping a 140mph deepening storm just off Martin County.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16023
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3466 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:59 am

06z GFS past 3 runs seems fixated on a PB landfall:

Image
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3467 Postby tailgater » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:00 am

The window to the north might be closing on this run. Check that looks like it’s visiting Tampa this time.
Last edited by tailgater on Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
caneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1447
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:44 am
Location: Clearwater Beach, Fl

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3468 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:01 am

sponger wrote:GFs legacy keeping a 140mph deepening storm just off Martin County.

Looks like Palm Beach county to me
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16023
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3469 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:01 am

06z GFS heading almost due WNW between hours 96-108:
Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
USTropics
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2659
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3470 Postby USTropics » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:02 am

Stronger ridging on this run, orientation of the trough is more zonal:
Image
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16023
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3471 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:03 am

This might end up in the GOM at some point.
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16023
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3472 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:04 am

06z GFS hours 96-120:
Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
lando
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 196
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:44 am
Location: Tampa

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3473 Postby lando » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:05 am

Slowdown seems to happen more over tampa
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3474 Postby sponger » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:06 am

Interesting the GFS Legacy has moved North.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=108
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16023
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3475 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:08 am

Begins to move NNW @ hour 126. One system affecting the entire state of Florida. Crazy.
Image
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16023
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3476 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:10 am

sponger wrote:Interesting the GFS Legacy has moved North.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=108

That seems inline with the CMC and GEPS.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16023
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3477 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:11 am

06z GFS hours 120-144:
Image

If someone wants to post the rest of the 06z GFS run they can take over. Gonna hit the hay.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
USTropics
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2659
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3478 Postby USTropics » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:14 am

GFS 06z trended towards the UKMET and ensembles:
Image

Don't let your guard down anywhere in FL - GFS/UKMET/HMON/ICON show more western FL impacts, GFS legacy/ECMWF/CMC/HWRF more eastern FL impacts, 06z TVCN splits the difference:

Image
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145691
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3479 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:19 am

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1167377362675261440


2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
mlfreeman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 81
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:48 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3480 Postby mlfreeman » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:43 am

USTropics wrote:GFS 06z trended towards the UKMET and ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/07ZBOex.png


Where did you get this image of the UKMet ensembles?
I swear I found it once, but I can't dig it up again and I want to organize my bookmarks better.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests