ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneFrances04]

Appears to be slowing down on satellite imagery, but that could be an illusion from a hot tower.

[FireRat]

Hate to say it, but Dorian certainly is getting that "look" to it that says it can go make a run at Category 5. Cat 4 might still be a bit conservative now.

[supercane4867]

Dorian could be Hugo's twin

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ea/Hugo_sept_21_1989.jpg/1280px-Hugo_sept_21_1989.jpg

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/latest/tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2.gif

...and no its not photoshopped.

They look identical...

[Ken711]

Dorian could be Hugo's twin

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ea/Hugo_sept_21_1989.jpg/1280px-Hugo_sept_21_1989.jpg

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/latest/tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2.gif

...and no its not photoshopped.

They look identical...

Or Matthew?

[hurricaneCW]

I haven’t seen a lot on the why. Why do the models have this hard right now? What comes by to just scoop it up like that?

Stronger weakness in the ridge as it nears Florida, it causes steering currents to collapse and then the weakness helps guide the storm further north.

I have doubts the weakness will be as strong as the Euro shows, will be a very close call though.

[wx98]

Hate to say it, but Dorian certainly is getting that "look" to it that says it can go make a run at Category 5. Cat 4 might still be a bit conservative now.

It may be a 4 by the time recon gets back in there this evening

[ScottNAtlanta]

Dorian could be Hugo's twin

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ea/Hugo_sept_21_1989.jpg/1280px-Hugo_sept_21_1989.jpg

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/latest/tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2.gif

...and no its not photoshopped.

They look identical...

Its eerily bizarre

[gailwarning]

I have a chance to move my Sunday afternoon flight out of FLL to Sunday morning out of MIA, for a huge cost. Still I would do it if it makes a big difference.

Any suggestions?

If it were me, I'd try to get a Saturday or even Friday flight. Things are so uncertain with timing and landfall. By the weekend, there will be a mad dash of people trying to get out. With the impending storm, the airlines should accommodate you for nothing.

[Highteeld]

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 9.0

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2019 Time : 182019 UTC
Lat : 24:57:35 N Lon : 70:18:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 950.4mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +6.4C Cloud Region Temp : -65.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES16
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.6 degrees

[Highteeld]

Hate to say it, but Dorian certainly is getting that "look" to it that says it can go make a run at Category 5. Cat 4 might still be a bit conservative now.

It may be a 4 by the time recon gets back in there this evening

ADT is showing a cat 4 signature

[TheDreamTraveler]

Hate to say it, but Dorian certainly is getting that "look" to it that says it can go make a run at Category 5. Cat 4 might still be a bit conservative now.

It's actually awful that it's taking this long to reach peak intensity. It'd be way better if it had already done that and started ERC's since they barely regain their original strength. This thing pulling what Michael or Harvey did before landfall would be very bad.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/1167500707525586945

[Stangfriik]

Hate to say it, but Dorian certainly is getting that "look" to it that says it can go make a run at Category 5. Cat 4 might still be a bit conservative now.

It's actually awful that it's taking this long to reach peak intensity. It'd be way better if it had already done that and started ERC's since they barely regain their original strength. This thing pulling what Michael or Harvey did before landfall would be very bad.

The more ERC's that occur, the larger the wind field though no?

[FireRat]

It sure looks like a 4, the symmetry of the CDO is spectacular for a 3, this is in RI mode for sure now. It's now going to depend on EWRC's whether the Bahamas get a maxed-out hurricane or something like a Cat 2. The slowdown that might occur could be a little bit of good news for FL if, and that's a BIG IF, the storm is there long enough to be able to turn north before hitting the coast. One more thing, a slow-moving hurricane can cause upwelling and weaken itself a bit, like what Frances 2004 probably did before landfall. btw, the Euro is now favoring a Matthew-like track. This is going to be a headache for forecasters for sure.

[CourierPR]

I haven’t seen a lot on the why. Why do the models have this hard right now? What comes by to just scoop it up like that?

Stronger weakness in the ridge as it nears Florida, it causes steering currents to collapse and then the weakness helps guide the storm further north.

I have doubts the weakness will be as strong as the Euro shows, will be a very close call though.

WFOR Met. Craig Setzer in Miami posed the question, "Do you want to bank your home on one model?" He said to continue preps.

[CrazyC83]

Would they increase the intensity without Recon? I'd probably go with 105 kt at the next advisory, but no further until we get the truth.

[AnnularCane]

Dorian could be Hugo's twin

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ea/Hugo_sept_21_1989.jpg/1280px-Hugo_sept_21_1989.jpg

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/latest/tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2.gif

...and no its not photoshopped.

Twins born 30 years apart?

[FireRat]

Would they increase the intensity without Recon? I'd probably go with 105 kt at the next advisory, but no further until we get the truth.

They'll probably wait for recon to see what they find this afternoon, they might not like what they'll find. I'd bet they'll find Dorian at around 130 mph by that time. This thing is bombing now.

[Yellow Evan]

Would they increase the intensity without Recon? I'd probably go with 105 kt at the next advisory, but no further until we get the truth.

Considering ADT is at T5.8, there's probably merit to go 105 knots at this point.

[HurricaneFrances04]

It wouldn't surprise me to see 120 mph at 5 pm. Satellite depiction of Dorian has improved since recon left, and recon observed a strengthening storm.