ATL: DORIAN - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like the Euro is showing some 250mb ridge imparting shear which weakens it a bit on approach.

[caneman]

The UKIE has been amazing the last few years. Inside of 96 hours it's been pretty lethal. It seems with most of the models, there isnt quite the slowdown to 4 mph. That's just eyeballing it though. We really dont need it crossing the state getting in the gulf, stalling or moving slow and rebuilding. Time for prepare, lost power with Jeanna and Frances for 11 days and Irma for 6 over here in Clearwater beach.

[tolakram]

Looks like the Euro is showing some 250mb ridge imparting shear which weakens it a bit on approach.

The 6Z ended up a bit stronger than the 0Z, though the intensity numbers are erratic and the Euro is very bad at intensity estimates.

[tolakram]

Bad, but consistent perhaps.

[USTropics]

6z ECMWF run:
 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167413392900075520

[tolakram]

Here's the HWRF intensity verification for a comparison.

[facemane]

The window to the north might be closing on this run. Check that looks like it’s visiting Tampa this time.

High over the appalachia, it can't go north

Of course things can change buddy but it looks like Dade won’t take the direct hit unless icon plays out.

Nobody knows where the direct hit will be. This includes forecasters at the NHC. Once again, stay vigilant.

[caneman]

Looks like the Euro is showing some 250mb ridge imparting shear which weakens it a bit on approach.

The 6Z ended up a bit stronger than the 0Z, though the intensity numbers are erratic and the Euro is very bad at intensity estimates.

The scary thing in the discussion is they said the FSU model disagrees with shear and shows an intense powerful hurricane

[Aric Dunn]

Atleast the time frame from all the models for landfall is within a reasonable spread unlikey yesterday.

Looks like monday night to wed.

[jasons2k]

A word of caution on the models. Sometimes the models come into a consensus only to shift around again later. We still have a long ways to go with Dorian.

[Aric Dunn]

I see there is still a good deal of ensemble members from all three models showing panhandle and even central gulf in the mix.

Hopefully in 2 days that gets resolved because the spread inside the 3 to 5 day mark is not cool lol

[northjaxpro]

A word of caution on the models. Sometimes the models come into a consensus only to shift around again later. We still have a long ways to go with Dorian.

Excellent advice Jason

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AaronPerryWx/status/1167423283882598400

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/AaronPerryWx/status/1167423283882598400

lol that was the plot i made last night

[AJC3]

A word of caution on the models. Sometimes the models come into a consensus only to shift around again later. We still have a long ways to go with Dorian.

I can't even begin to like this post enough times. I've been through the forecast rodeo for TCs down here since 1994. Forecast consensus (precision) does not guarantee accuracy, despite the implication. I've seen several instances of forecast model and model consensus tracks (as well as official forecasts) trending toward a particular solution several days out, only to have them trend away from that same solution within 24-36 hours. One need only look at the forecasts for Irene, Charley, Matthew, Irma, Michael, and many many others to see that solutions are far from set in stone, especially 72+ hours out.

And to be clear, I'm not at all saying that people should throw their hands up, disregard critical thinking and scientific reasoning skills, and simply disregard model forecast trends. It remains to be seen how accurate the current set of 3-4 day track/intensity forecasts are. Even the most subtle changes in the short term can have significant impacts in the longer term. Never let your guard down, especially this far out in time. Don't be overconfident. Too many times I've seen sound, seemingly solid TC forecasts bust to some degree because of some subtle atmospheric changes in the 1-3 day time frame.

[Aric Dunn]

one thing to note... there is syrface reflection under upper heading for the straights some models have this feature stronger.. If that feature becomes more defined it could play a role in keeping Dorian moving westerly longer.

[Bayou Mama]

Lurker here, for a few years. I am in Dulac, LA. I am just wondering, percentage wise, what are the chances of this thing making it to La.? I look at the models and I see FL all the way. But some of them are confusing to my very untrained eye. Thanks, and to all you pros in here, thanks for taking the time to share your knowledge.

[cajungal]

Lurker here, for a few years. I am in Dulac, LA. I am just wondering, percentage wise, what are the chances of this thing making it to La.? I look at the models and I see FL all the way. But some of them are confusing to my very untrained eye. Thanks, and to all you pros in here, thanks for taking the time to share your knowledge.

I am your neighbor here in Thibodaux. I am still watching just in case.

[KWT]

Here's the HWRF intensity verification for a comparison.

https://i.imgur.com/KYqcKQc.png

Not bad verification at the moment from HWRF. Worrying because it goes pretty high with the intensity for landfall!

[hohnywx]

Lurker here, for a few years. I am in Dulac, LA. I am just wondering, percentage wise, what are the chances of this thing making it to La.? I look at the models and I see FL all the way. But some of them are confusing to my very untrained eye. Thanks, and to all you pros in here, thanks for taking the time to share your knowledge.

NHC is currently giving Gulfport and Mobile a 3% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds. Those are the furthest west locations provided.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0854.shtml