ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

You know its a monster when you see gravity waves on WV.
This is what starts out as a pinhole eye winds up to be.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Hate to say it, but Dorian certainly is getting that "look" to it that says it can go make a run at Category 5. Cat 4 might still be a bit conservative now.

It's actually awful that it's taking this long to reach peak intensity. It'd be way better if it had already done that and started ERC's since they barely regain their original strength. This thing pulling what Michael or Harvey did before landfall would be very bad.

The more ERC's that occur, the larger the wind field though no?

Not really sure how much bigger it'd expand but the reason why it's better for it to have hit peak intensity already is it has a 10-13% chance to regain that peak and there's the chance the storm hits during a ERC so it'd be slightly weaker and the damage wouldn't be as severe.

[GCANE]

Looks like the eyewall lightning may have shut down.

[Do_For_Love]

You know its a monster when you see gravity waves on WV.
This is what starts out as a pinhole eye winds up to be.

Would it be wrong to say that the left side doesn't look quite as "robust" as the right side of the 'Cane? Or is that normal?

[jaxfladude]

Needless to say, Northeast Florida will get serious impacts from extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian this Labor day Weekend

The latest from the NHC and after seeing the recent guidance consensus, Hurricane conditions are anticipated, major implications with Storm Surge, and Torrential flooding and tornadoes will be HUGE concerns across the entire area.

I will do my best to keep everyone abreasted as to what is happening up here in the Jacksonville metro area, and the conditions. I know the mods and others will probably have threads available about posting on conditions throughout the state.

Godspeed everyone!!! Pray for us all here and all throughout the state of Florida and surrounding areas this Labor Day weekend into next week as well.

Seriously? Compared to recent hurricanes that have passed and to various degree have impacted Jacksonville Florida how does (at your post's time) Dorian compare? Sorry for delay in replying/asking trying to catch up from when I last read overnight.

[ozonepete]

I haven’t seen a lot on the why. Why do the models have this hard right now? What comes by to just scoop it up like that?

The STR (subtropical ridge or Bermuda high) to its north has a long straight area of west moving winds on its southern flank. The western edge of the ridge right now extends to Florida or a little further west. At the western edge of the ridge the winds turn from the west to from the south. So as a TC comes to the edge of the ridge it slows down and then gets turned northward as it follows around the edge of the ridge. The models have been saying that the ridge would strengthen and extend even further west into the GOM for a while now, but over the last 24 hours they have been starting to say that the ridge may not get stronger or weaken and thus its western edge will be over Florida or or east of Florida by the time Dorian is over the Bahamas. Thus Dorian would slow down and start moving northward either over Florida or just offshore. From here on we need to see if the models keep this trend toward turning it northward offshore. This would obviously be great for Florida but bad for the Carolinas.

[Cutt]

Hey all, first time poster but been a member for a long time. Looking like I might be at ground zero here in Stuart but I’ll be stuck at the firehouse for the foreseeable future anyway. I have a question regarding the wind radius and radius of maximum wind. Are those figures from the dead center of the storm or is it how far it extends from the inner edge of the eyewall?

[xironman]

The big eye kind of reminds me of Izzy

[Evenstar]

The big eye kind of reminds me of Izzy

https://i.imgur.com/dNeQpNP.jpg

The Tidewater area of Virginia would appreciate it if you didn't mention "she who must not be named."

That being said, we are keeping an eye on Dorian here in SE VA.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon can't get into Dorian soon enough, really taking off now. Could be nearing 110 knots by now.

[supercane4867]

110kt sounds about right

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 950.4mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +7.0C Cloud Region Temp : -63.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[ozonepete]

This is really ramping up. CIMSS ADT is probably not wrong about it approaching Cat 4. I've been thinking all along tht it's not likely it wil make a Cat 5 since they are so rare but from the looks of this and the very favorble conditions now I'm beginning to think it has a pretty good shot at Cat 5. This is just going to be horrible where it makes landfall.

[hiflyer]

I have a chance to move my Sunday afternoon flight out of FLL to Sunday morning out of MIA, for a huge cost. Still I would do it if it makes a big difference.

Any suggestions?

I would suggest to keep it for Sunday afternoon, because the first TS force winds are not expected before Sunday 8PM. But don't miss it

The NHC site shows the expected tropical storm force winds to be near the South Florida coastline by Sunday 8am.

Most carriers have waivers in for Florida cities as long as you rebook within 2 weeks or so.....pretty flexible. Have you called, tweeted, or texted them???? I know United working on extra lift FLL and MIA for Saturday

[xironman]

The Tidewater area of Virginia would appreciate it if you didn't mention "she who must not be named."

That being said, we are keeping an eye on Dorian here in SE VA.

Hey at least I did not use the "a" word

[Kat5]

Seems to be moving WNW now, wish recon was there to verify.

[Aric Dunn]

I haven’t seen a lot on the why. Why do the models have this hard right now? What comes by to just scoop it up like that?

The STR (subtropical ridge or Bermuda high) to its north has a long straight area of west moving winds on its southern flank. The western edge of the ridge right now extends to Florida or a little further west. At the western edge of the ridge the winds turn from the west to from the south. So as a TC comes to the edge of the ridge it slows down and then gets turned northward as it follows around the edge of the ridge. The models have been saying that the ridge would strengthen and extend even further west into the GOM for a while now, but over the last 24 hours they have been starting to say that the ridge may not get stronger or weaken and thus its western edge will be over Florida or or east of Florida by the time Dorian is over the Bahamas. Thus Dorian would slow down and start moving northward either over Florida or just offshore. From here on we need to see if the models keep this trend toward turning it northward offshore. This would obviously be great for Florida but bad for the Carolinas.

we need more g4 flights.. not sure why there is not one today..

[GCANE]

[tarheelprogrammer]

This looks like a cat 4 storm currently. When is recon going to be out there?

[aperson]

Eye temps are shooting up. Currently a real warm spot in the eye that naively looks to me like a mesovort mixing around.

[Jr0d]

Im about to clock into work. It will be good to not wobble watch this evening. Definitely has the look of a Cat 4 now.