ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Highteeld]

12% chance of a cat 5 in 36 hours

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

seeking a map with the latest operational model spaghetti plots on it, not all the ensembles too that make it almost impossible to even see a line. lol
I want one with euro, gfs, ukmet, hwrf, cmc, hmon, icon, fsu. Anyone has something close to that?

[Blinhart]

seeking a map with the latest operational model spaghetti plots on it, not all the ensembles too that make it almost impossible to even see a line. lol
I want one with euro, gfs, ukmet, hwrf, cmc, hmon, icon, fsu. Anyone has something close to that?

https://spaghettimodels.com/

Should be able to find it here.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAM a little more north and faster through 51 hours

[tolakram]

Latest track roundup

[Evil Jeremy]

Probably a slight bump north in the 11am cone.

[NDG]

There is a consensus between the 0z Euro and 06z GFS at 72-96 hr forecast point, which is for Dorian to be near Grand Bahama Island Monday morning and about 10-30 miles east of Jupiter Inlet Monday evening.
After Monday night's forecasted position that's where they move apart with the GFS keep moving it WNW at a slow but steady pace towards east Tampa before slowing down while the Euro slower towards Orlando.

[stormlover2013]

they will keep it the same

[jfk08c]

Eye has definitely begun forming north of the model consensus. Should shift most models north for the next set of runs. I suspect a few more replacement cycles that make it all the more difficult to pinpoint a landfall

[Canelaw99]

Euro 6Z a little north, a little faster, and weaker. 93.3 kts vs 80.0 kts <- corrected and these numbers are all over the place, not reliable IMO.

06z Euro is right off the coast of Jupiter crawling WWNW - no S component throughout the track this time

Is there a graphic handy for this one?

[tolakram]

Euro 6Z a little north, a little faster, and weaker. 93.3 kts vs 80.0 kts <- corrected and these numbers are all over the place, not reliable IMO.

06z Euro is right off the coast of Jupiter crawling WWNW - no S component throughout the track this time

Is there a graphic handy for this one?

Not for free, no. Look for Ryan Maue's tweets as he sometimes posts graphics.

[CourierPR]

Eye has definitely begun forming north of the model consensus. Should shift most models north for the next set of runs. I suspect a few more replacement cycles that make it all the more difficult to pinpoint a landfall

Where was the eye progged to be? There is always that possibility of a WSW dip later that would put it in the original projected position.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1167444830781419521

[jfk08c]

Eye has definitely begun forming north of the model consensus. Should shift most models north for the next set of runs. I suspect a few more replacement cycles that make it all the more difficult to pinpoint a landfall

Where was the eye progged to be? There is always that possibility of a WSW dip later that would put it in the original projected position.

The general consensus seemed to be about a half a degree in latitude more south on the 12z runs. Seems to be more in line with the COTI as far as location

[SFLcane]

Eric blake on twitter...

Good stuff. I was struggling explaining on the fly why stronger was related to stronger. Of course, if all your ensemble members are 990-1000 and it is almost a MH, could be some issues

[supercane4867]

Here comes your NAM as usual lol

[Aric Dunn]

Eric blake on twitter...

Good stuff. I was struggling explaining on the fly why stronger was related to stronger. Of course, if all your ensemble members are 990-1000 and it is almost a MH, could be some issues

yep.. the euro seems to have a problem with this sometimes. hopefully the 12z it will initialize correctly now that it is stronger.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Here comes your NAM as usual lol

https://i.imgur.com/WvsNRN0.png

Ok I know I don’t see an 8 there

[Aric Dunn]

lol the NAM does a sw turn then SE ! in the bahamas..

looks like a big cyclonic loop..

luckily its the NAM lol

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Wasn't it said a few days ago that a stronger/faster storm was more likely to take a more southern/western route due to ridging influence? It would begin appearing on the right side of the cone, but would end up on the left side. Did any of the models guess at the current pressure at this time and location?