ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneseddy]

Is there word on whether Dorian has started the turn west. John Morales in NBC6 just said it’s starting the turn on a brief update

[Hypercane_Kyle]

AF307 has just taken off on an unassigned mission to Dorian. Unlikely it'll make it to Dorian before 5pm though.

[Mouton]

Posted this on the wrong board:

The coming NHC advisory will be interesting...last real one before public signs off. I would estimate they will be conservative and probably nudge their move to the right maybe 75 miles or so due to the movement in the models and if they get info the ridge is not building as fast or as much as expected. At the 11 edt advisory, they put in a sharp move to the right after landfall so they may not want to overdo it. For a final path, Mathew is a potential but just a 50 mile west of its path would be far more destructive compared to the actual damage that occurred. FWIW, our Fernandina barometer has been dropping the past few hours which would belie a notion the ridge is building west. Lastly, above Vero, the in closein water temps, west side of the GS, are unseasonably cool.

3 days ago, based on a WAG, I drew a line at 80w as west most advance. I'd love to be correct. Models with a good record show cat 4 intensity with a few at the mid point. NO 5s.

[Aric Dunn]

Is there word on whether Dorian has started the turn west. John Morales in NBC6 just said it’s starting the turn on a brief update

looking at sat. it sure looks just north of west..

[Blown Away]

Dorian has been on the right side of the error cone most of his life... It was supposed to hit Hispaniola a few days out and missed PR to the east...

[xironman]

[quote="aperson"]Eye temps are shooting up. Currently a real warm spot in the eye that naively looks to me like a mesovort mixing around.

{/quote]

Just for fun

"Tropical cyclones can become annular as a result of eyewall mesovortices mixing the strong winds found in the eyewalls of storms with the weak winds of the eye, which helps to expand the eye. In addition, this process helps to make the equivalent potential temperature (often referred to as theta-e or {\displaystyle \theta _{e}} \theta _{e}) within the eye relatively uniform. "

[b0tzy29]

Holy cow! - look at that convection around the eye.

[Blown Away]

AF307 has just taken off on an unassigned mission to Dorian. Unlikely it'll make it to Dorian before 5pm though.

Dorian is close enough now and the NHC will agressively sample the high pressure out in front and I expect in the next few NHC Disco's a conclusion the HP was stronger or weaker than expected...

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1167528489391722496

[PandaCitrus]

Is this north of due west turn earlier than the models are saying? What does this mean for the eventual track a south shift and stall near Miami/Ft. Lauderdale instead of Jupiter?

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2’s Tony said he expects the cone to move to the east by maybe 50 miles at the 5pm update. There’s hope the it will recurve and not hit any land and that chance is increasing.

[Airboy]

Looks to me it have pretty much stalled for an hour, or at least not moving much

[AxaltaRacing24]

Looks to me it have pretty much stalled for on hour, or at least not moving much

A sign that the turn is imminent.

[Kingarabian]

Holy cow! - look at that convection around the eye.

[url]https://media.giphy.com/media/LPYsmAvGq7wjMS1DZO/source.gif[url]

That convection around the eye is still a little too warm thus its holding up Dvorak estimates from going higher.

[Kat5]

Looks to me it have pretty much stalled for on hour, or at least not moving much

A sign that the turn is imminent.

On a NW to WNW/West turn? Doubtful, it might had hit a weak steering pocket.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like another ERC is starting.. some evidence of inner convection firing and an outer ring of convection.. hard to say but sure looks like it ..

[PandaCitrus]

They mean an earlier western turn. Not a turn to the north. That won't happen near the Bahamas or over Florida if it happens.

[BobHarlem]

If the storm turns more due west (or even south of west) sooner watch for the Euro wiper back left on the 0z.

[CryHavoc]

Looks to me it have pretty much stalled for on hour, or at least not moving much

A sign that the turn is imminent.

Looks like Florida won’t get hit

Unless you're a met/pro forecaster, don't make statements like this. They can get people's hopes up for no reason. You aren't giving space to the idea that this is a minor wobble in the path of a hurricane that may mean nothing.

Official forecast still has Florida taking a direct hit. Until that chances, we need to keep the -removed- to a minimum.

[Hammy]

A sign that the turn is imminent.

Looks like Florida won’t get hit

Please don't do that without saying it's an amateur's opinion. A lot of people on here might take you seriously and of course you don't want that responsibility, right?

I make a lot of predictions (half of which end up wrong ) and have kept the disclaimer in my sig for that reason.

On that note, the Euro seems to be the outlier at the moment so I wouldn't base anything off of one run. While I'm leaning towards Matthew track myself, everybody from Miami to the Outer Banks needs to prepare for a direct hit from a major.