ATL: DORIAN - Models

[tolakram]

lol the NAM does a sw turn then SE ! in the bahamas..

So figure 8 incoming then.

[Ritzcraker]

Here comes your NAM as usual lol

https://i.imgur.com/WvsNRN0.png

Ok I know I don’t see an 8 there

NAM doing typical NAM stuff it’s not going to happen... pure satire

[AxaltaRacing24]

Here comes your NAM as usual lol

https://i.imgur.com/WvsNRN0.png

Ok I know I don’t see an 8 there

NAM doing typical NAM stuff it’s not going to happen... pure satire

Trust me I know lol. I have seen plenty of the NAM’s antics.

[Kat5]

12z NAM sure had Dorian going in reverse.

[beachman80]

NAM needs to stick to blizzards lol

[Aric Dunn]

ICON is rolling

[ronjon]

one thing to note... there is syrface reflection under upper heading for the straights some models have this feature stronger.. If that feature becomes more defined it could play a role in keeping Dorian moving westerly longer.

Good point Aric...believe this is what ICON model's been showing consistently. In fact, we may have another tropical cyclone developing from this low pressure approaching S Texas as Dorian is wrecking havoc over the Fl peninsula by Tuesday.

[Steve]

NAM isn't for track obviously, particularly below 25N 99% of the time.

However, here is the depiction at 84 hours (so valid Monday at 7pm) at 700mb which is a little less than 2 miles up into the atmosphere. You can see that it has dipped down to about 25.3N and is on the backside of a loop, and also shows that mid-upper level feature off Texas that some of the models have been suggesting will become at least partially tropical.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 3012&fh=84

[Aric Dunn]

looks like ICON is dipping wsw much sooner. east of the bahamas ?

[Aric Dunn]

nope straight west so far.. not slowing down as much either. good news on that part ..

[supercane4867]

Very strong upper level ridging on ICON. Could be turning SW soon

[chris_fit]

ICON slightly N - here is a trend....

[Mouton]

Current projection by the NHC shows a turn to the NW right after land fall. If that is so and that turn continues this could be a similar path to that of Charlie albeit it was south of Tampa when it made a wide veer to the NE. Interestingly, it is akin to recent run in the GFS. Were it to continue straight N after turning, it would damage a good portion of the entire coast line from Vero to Ga verses a NE run which would exit somewhere near St Augustine (?). My sense is if the storm is not huge in size, it can make these quick veers. Larger ones seem to have their own momentum.

[alienstorm]

Icon is slightly more north than 06z at 54 hrs

[Steve]

Yeah, it seems a little more north initially, but it's at least flattened out by 54 hours and may stall out in the next few plots, dip southwest or keep going. It's been at the southern end of guidance for several days.

[gatorcane]

ICON with a WSW turn hours 57-60:

[Aric Dunn]

we are at the 3 to 4 day time period this is when models start becoming more reliable. Things can of course change. But the general idea seems fairly set in place.

[chris_fit]

What is that LOW to the NE of Dorian @ 60+ Hours ??? Could it cause a weakness in ridge???

[AxaltaRacing24]

Damn the ICON is very consistent

[Aric Dunn]

ICON 60 hours start the wsw turn.. but its not slowing down as much.. at least through 78 hours.