ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Siker
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3661 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:59 pm

Wide view:

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3662 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:03 pm

The current inner-core structure of Dorian is very impressive:

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1167557855286874118


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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3663 Postby Highteeld » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:04 pm

120 kts/948 mb is my guess based off this IR imagery

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3664 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:07 pm

Highteeld wrote:120 kts/948 mb is my guess based off this IR imagery

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_goes16-meso2_20190830215857.jpg

That has cat 4/5 run written all over it.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3665 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:08 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2019 Time : 212019 UTC
Lat : 25:14:23 N Lon : 70:35:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 950.3mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +7.4C Cloud Region Temp : -61.7C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3666 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:09 pm

Sunset view. Very impressive

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3667 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:09 pm

I just want to stop for a brief moment to remind everyone to keep your thoughts and prayers on our neighbors in the NW and Central Bahamas . They also will be in the crosshairs of Dorian the next few days as well.

Praying for the people of the Bahamas! Godspeed!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3668 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:11 pm

xironman wrote:Intensity matters. The old "Pump up the ridge" scenario.

I have not heard this discussed for Dorian. Anyone that can help, please elaborate.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3669 Postby Highteeld » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:11 pm

Eye is starting to torch

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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3670 Postby aperson » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:13 pm

Highteeld wrote:Eye is starting to torch

https://i.imgur.com/Wry6gju.png


Yeah it really shows on BD now
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3671 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:13 pm

Highteeld wrote:120 kts/948 mb is my guess based off this IR imagery

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_goes16-meso2_20190830215857.jpg


The cloud tops need to get brighter; it's a bit over T5.5 right now. If I were to look at it from my naked eye I'd go 105 kt, but we'll know the true intensity in about 90 minutes.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3672 Postby Highteeld » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:13 pm

Increasing

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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3673 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:14 pm

Recon aside, probably T6.0 right now with B ring and eye warming.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3674 Postby Highteeld » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:14 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Highteeld wrote:120 kts/948 mb is my guess based off this IR imagery

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_goes16-meso2_20190830215857.jpg


The cloud tops need to get brighter; it's a bit over T5.5 right now. If I were to look at it from my naked eye I'd go 105 kt, but we'll know the true intensity in about 90 minutes.

Irma threw ADT for a loop. Just a gut feeling here
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3675 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:15 pm

Probably will hit 120kts tonight. CAT5 a real possibility
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3676 Postby Kat5 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:19 pm

Anybody got an idea on current movement, my reading glasses aren’t as great as I thought.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3677 Postby Buck » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:21 pm

What that met on Twitter said several posts back about the inner core reminds me of Maria... even EWRC didn't really weaken Maria because she had such a strong core in place.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3678 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:21 pm

Another hot tower firing up in the eyewall...Beast mode


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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3679 Postby Highteeld » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:21 pm

Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3680 Postby JBCycloneStan » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:23 pm

Wow 1 degree Celsius warming of the eye in 10 minutes?? This is deepening fast.
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