ATL: DORIAN - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

Do we have a definition on the word “trend” I am curious? The UK for example for days and days has shown a more west solution and the 1 time it shifts east it joins this “trend” or more north up the FL east coast hits. Also what are the factors in play for causing this robust shift?


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[chris_fit]

Canadian also agrees with GFS, GFS Legacy, and UKMET...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Do we have a definition on the word “trend” I am curious? The UK for example for days and days has shown a more west solution and the 1 time it shifts east it joins this “trend” or more north up the FL east coast hits. Also what are the factors in play for causing this robust shift?


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Usually a trend is if we see something over repeated model runs. I'd call this a shift, not really a trend. Granted, small shifts are going to make a huge ton of difference with who's going to see the worst impacts.

[gatorcane]

Not far from completely missing Florida all together

[SFLcane]

Do we have a definition on the word “trend” I am curious? The UK for example for days and days has shown a more west solution and the 1 time it shifts east it joins this “trend” or more north up the FL east coast hits. Also what are the factors in play for causing this robust shift?



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[caneman]

Ukmet this far has been spot on with Dorian. The change isnt that dramatic when you consider just Florida affects, its more dramatic down the line. Every single model has had swing with Dorian save for maybe the Icon

[hohnywx]

Do we have a definition on the word “trend” I am curious? The UK for example for days and days has shown a more west solution and the 1 time it shifts east it joins this “trend” or more north up the FL east coast hits. Also what are the factors in play for causing this robust shift?

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This was not a trend. If the models continue this at 18z and 0z, then there was a trend today towards a central FL landfall.

[gatorcane]

Thoughts on what the Euro will do? Runs in 1 hour.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Florida is going to take the brunt it would appear but it's looking more like I might get a decent event up here in Eastern NC as well. People still recovering from Flo last year if it comes through hopefully it does so quickly. Thoughts out to all of those in Florida though as this could be a catastrophic event for them.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Thoughts on what the Euro will do? Runs in 1 hour.

Likely further north, more in line with the GFS/UKMET/CMC. The ECMWF almost always follows suit when that many models shift IMO.

[chris_fit]

Thoughts on what the Euro will do? Runs in 1 hour.

Likely further north, more in line with the GFS/UKMET/CMC. The ECMWF almost always follows suit when that many models shift IMO.

Agree - More N / E

[crownweather]

Thoughts on what the Euro will do? Runs in 1 hour.

At this point, I'm ready for anything with the Euro. Our luck is that it switches back to a track that takes it into the Gulf after going over S Florida.

[TheStormExpert]

Thoughts on what the Euro will do? Runs in 1 hour.

It trends further east offshore some.

[MacTavish]

so 12z UKMET, GFS, CMC, and GFS legacy All showing similar tracks north of Jupiter and then up the coastline.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The big shock so far is the UKMET. That is a monster change. Like a 300-500 mile shift east. That’s unreal.

Basically just caved to the consensus. Still in line with all other models and NHC track now.

[gatorcane]

I am going with the Euro shifting NE more in line with the other models.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Models tend to underestimate the ridge, still think it could shift left/west given what happened with Irma. That said, I pray it goes out to sea.

[caneman]

I dont recall models struggling so badly with a storm? Anyhow else? The windshield wiper effect is insane. Just wild swings

[Blinhart]

Thoughts on what the Euro will do? Runs in 1 hour.

Just to mess with everyone, it will decide to go with the ICON and go into Miami/Dade and into the GoM.

[KWT]

Not far from completely missing Florida all together

Close, the eyewall still smashes east coast. Bigger threat for Carolinas from the 12z suite so far as well.

Good trend for Florida, especially west Florida on todays 12z runs so far. I think the ECM may keep it out to sea this time round based on the trend and what its ensemble members tried to do on the 00z.