ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Stangfriik]

I am going with the Euro shifting NE more in line with the other models.

I was quite content with these west and southwest jogs and the more westerly inland tracks while being up here in Daytona but now the nerves are kicking back in.

[Blinhart]

The big shock so far is the UKMET. That is a monster change. Like a 300-500 mile shift east. That’s unreal.

Basically just caved to the consensus. Still in line with all other models and NHC track now.

There was no consensus.

[AxaltaRacing24]

We need to be careful with the way we’re using the words “consensus” and “trend”

[KWT]

We need to be careful with the way we’re using the words “consensus” and “trend”

We probably aren't far from a consensus now, only ICON is the outlier at the moment, all other models now have broadly come into decent agreement with each other, though still options for tracks north and south still.

[jdjaguar]

I am going with the Euro shifting NE more in line with the other models.

I was quite content with these west and southwest jogs and the more westerly inland tracks while being up here in Daytona but now the nerves are kicking back in.

same here. (although I wouldn't characterize my state of mind as "content"..)

[StPeteMike]

I’ll also be the outlier and say it backs the ICON.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

We need to be careful with the way we’re using the words “consensus” and “trend”

We probably aren't far from a consensus now, only ICON is the outlier at the moment, all other models now have broadly come into decent agreement with each other, though still options for tracks north and south still.

Yea, yesterday we were seeing the models literally differ by a day in terms of landfall. Now they're generally within 100 miles of one another (excluding the ICON, which has consistently been a little too far south IMO).

What we're seeing now is more of a fine tuning. NHC track looks very solid right now, perhaps a slight change at 5pm.

[AxaltaRacing24]

We need to be careful with the way we’re using the words “consensus” and “trend”

We probably aren't far from a consensus now, only ICON is the outlier at the moment, all other models now have broadly come into decent agreement with each other, though still options for tracks north and south still.

That’s still not a consensus. Models all showed it hitting PBC/Broward only 12 hours ago. This was simply a shift. Still no consensus or trend yet.

[chris_fit]

Gonna go out on a limb and say no FL landfall on the EURO next hour

[Blinhart]

We need to be careful with the way we’re using the words “consensus” and “trend”

We probably aren't far from a consensus now, only ICON is the outlier at the moment, all other models now have broadly come into decent agreement with each other, though still options for tracks north and south still.

I'm sorry when I think of consensus, I think of all the models in agreement for more than 1 run, and a trend is 4 or 5 times and the same results. Until everyone of them show the same results for 2 runs in a row then no consensus.

[Jevo]

Hahaha I'd love to see the EURO just knuckleball it all and go Andrew track in this run..

Also one instance does not a trend make... Otherwise me having a salad for lunch because that's all there was in the fridge would be considered as starting a new vegetarian trend in my life.

Be patient.. 6 more hours

Trend: The general movement over time of a statistically detectable change (Merriam Webster Dictionary

[chris_fit]

HMON coming in more N too

[ronjon]

Well this is better news if that eastern trend continues. But I was fooled a couple of days ago thinking the same. Have to wait a couple of model cycles.

[Evil Jeremy]

The models have been shifting north and south on Florida since Monday. We’ve been stuck in the 4-5 day range of the forecast since Monday. Even though we’re still apparently 4 days out from landfall, there’s no more wait-and-see with the models. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, up and down the whole FL east coast. Because the model shifts aren’t close to done.

[KWT]

We need to be careful with the way we’re using the words “consensus” and “trend”

We probably aren't far from a consensus now, only ICON is the outlier at the moment, all other models now have broadly come into decent agreement with each other, though still options for tracks north and south still.

I'm sorry when I think of consensus, I think of all the models in agreement for more than 1 run, and a trend is 4 or 5 times and the same results. Until everyone of them show the same results for 2 runs in a row then no consensus.

Fair enough, I see that as a unanimous consensus, you can have a consensus and an outlier or two IMO, which I feel at the moment we are probably at that point.

Anyway, we need to see how and where Dorian reaches 26N, the GFS has it around 72W, whilst HMON (which is north of the 06z, but still further south of the others) has it reaching that figure around 74W and then hovering aorund it.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

We need to be careful with the way we’re using the words “consensus” and “trend”

We probably aren't far from a consensus now, only ICON is the outlier at the moment, all other models now have broadly come into decent agreement with each other, though still options for tracks north and south still.

I'm sorry when I think of consensus, I think of all the models in agreement for more than 1 run, and a trend is 4 or 5 times and the same results. Until everyone of them show the same results for 2 runs in a row then no consensus.

I'd say we're in a pretty good consensus right now when one takes into account the usual margin for error @ 96 hours.

[Evil Jeremy]

Everyone, remember how far off the models were in the NE Caribbean. Hispaniola became the Virgin Islands in a day.

Even if the models form a "consensus", it can not be relied on. Do not focus on a constantly evolving "consensus".

[KWT]

We probably aren't far from a consensus now, only ICON is the outlier at the moment, all other models now have broadly come into decent agreement with each other, though still options for tracks north and south still.

I'm sorry when I think of consensus, I think of all the models in agreement for more than 1 run, and a trend is 4 or 5 times and the same results. Until everyone of them show the same results for 2 runs in a row then no consensus.

I'd say we're in a pretty good consensus right now when one takes into account the usual margin for error @ 96 hours.

Yep, here is the defintion:

"a generally accepted opinion; wide agreement"

I think the key point there is "generally", doesn't need to be total agreement, but a general one, which I feel we have now.

Anyway HMON still hugging 26N out to 66hrs, meanwhile the GFS/CMC are way north of that location by this point. Those models tend to be the worst with dealing with upper ridges, so will be interesting to see how that plays out.

[jfk08c]

People tend to see what they want to see. Bottom line

[AJC3]

I think some model peeps are confusing model consensus with run-to-run model continuity.

Consensus is simply the closeness or precision of a single dataset, or in this case, a single set of global model runs. It can also refer to a single model ensemble run.

Continuity is similarity of a model forecast, or a set of model forecasts, as you progress in time.

Last night we had a fairly decent 00Z model consensus of a track more toward SE Florida.

Today it looks like the 12Z runs are trending more toward central Florida...so far (op-Euro yet to arrive)

However, the continuity of both the singular model runs, and the model consensus is still not that great.

Carry on...let's not beat the semantic debate to death.