ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

No words except to remind those in the path that early Cat5 will not necessarily mean 5 at landfall. But all bets are off with this one as its best environment lays ahead. What will tomorrow morning bring? Bad news I suspect. Mandatory evacs will be for coastal areas, and river dwellers. Some lining up for a direct hit, living within 20 miles of the coast may want to consider bugging out if feasible. I would love to hear from anyone here that stayed for a 4 or 5 and regretted it.

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 23:21Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 21
Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 22:58:52Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.22N 70.89W
B. Center Fix Location: 405 statute miles (652 km) to the E (88°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,687m (8,816ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.09 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 230° at 13kts (From the SW at 15mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed Wall
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 112kts (128.9mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the NW/NNW (326°) of center fix at 22:57:04Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 33° at 116kts (From the NNE at 133.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the NW (322°) of center fix at 22:56:36Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 101kts (116.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the ESE (107°) of center fix at 23:00:36Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 225° at 108kts (From the SW at 124.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the ESE (107°) of center fix at 23:00:34Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,097m (10,161ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy / Meteorological Accuracy (Undecoded): 0.01 / NA

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the NW (322°) from the flight level center at 22:56:36Z

[johngaltfla]

IMHO, folks, the models today may well be trash. Once a storm has the ability to create or enhance its own environment, all bets are off. Please pay attention to the actual path and recon reports over the next 48 hours as that will determine just how bad this can get. Everyone has been cautious thus far, but the historical climatology seems to favor a 1947 Fort Lauderdale or 1926 Great Miami hurricane potential. I'm not calling it a repeat or direct similarity yet, but barring a stall, this situation will be very serious for everyone from Miami-Dade up to Canaveral and please, please, please, heed the warnings of local authorities.

[NDG]

Wow on the latest recon pass, incredible!

[GCANE]

Eye shrunk 5nm from this morning.

[Do_For_Love]

Does that Vortex message mean it's still a Cat 3 (for now)?

[norva13x]

IMHO, folks, the models today may well be trash. Once a storm has the ability to create or enhance its own environment, all bets are off. Please pay attention to the actual path and recon reports over the next 48 hours as that will determine just how bad this can get. Everyone has been cautious thus far, but the historical climatology seems to favor a 1947 Fort Lauderdale or 1926 Great Miami hurricane potential. I'm not calling it a repeat or direct similarity yet, but barring a stall, this situation will be very serious for everyone from Miami-Dade up to Canaveral and please, please, please, heed the warnings of local authorities.

If it is coming in stronger than the models predict, how might that affect it's path?

[johngaltfla]

IMHO, folks, the models today may well be trash. Once a storm has the ability to create or enhance its own environment, all bets are off. Please pay attention to the actual path and recon reports over the next 48 hours as that will determine just how bad this can get. Everyone has been cautious thus far, but the historical climatology seems to favor a 1947 Fort Lauderdale or 1926 Great Miami hurricane potential. I'm not calling it a repeat or direct similarity yet, but barring a stall, this situation will be very serious for everyone from Miami-Dade up to Canaveral and please, please, please, heed the warnings of local authorities.

If it is coming in stronger than the models predict, how might that affect it's path?

It might choose its own path. Hopefully out to sea, but remember, Andrew went annular and that was a nightmare for south Florida. The smaller storms are not good for some models because they tend to defy the steering currents and forecast positions.

[norva13x]

IMHO, folks, the models today may well be trash. Once a storm has the ability to create or enhance its own environment, all bets are off. Please pay attention to the actual path and recon reports over the next 48 hours as that will determine just how bad this can get. Everyone has been cautious thus far, but the historical climatology seems to favor a 1947 Fort Lauderdale or 1926 Great Miami hurricane potential. I'm not calling it a repeat or direct similarity yet, but barring a stall, this situation will be very serious for everyone from Miami-Dade up to Canaveral and please, please, please, heed the warnings of local authorities.

If it is coming in stronger than the models predict, how might that affect it's path?

It might choose its own path. Hopefully out to sea, but remember, Andrew went annular and that was a nightmare for south Florida. The smaller storms are not good for some models because they tend to defy the steering currents and forecast positions.

Just more wait and see. What a headache of a storm lol

[jasons2k]

IMHO, folks, the models today may well be trash. Once a storm has the ability to create or enhance its own environment, all bets are off. Please pay attention to the actual path and recon reports over the next 48 hours as that will determine just how bad this can get. Everyone has been cautious thus far, but the historical climatology seems to favor a 1947 Fort Lauderdale or 1926 Great Miami hurricane potential. I'm not calling it a repeat or direct similarity yet, but barring a stall, this situation will be very serious for everyone from Miami-Dade up to Canaveral and please, please, please, heed the warnings of local authorities.

I have suspected the same, but I think it's too early to make that determination. Looking forward tonight's runs as I think they will shed some light on the validity of today's model runs.

[Highteeld]

[TheDreamTraveler]

IMHO, folks, the models today may well be trash. Once a storm has the ability to create or enhance its own environment, all bets are off. Please pay attention to the actual path and recon reports over the next 48 hours as that will determine just how bad this can get. Everyone has been cautious thus far, but the historical climatology seems to favor a 1947 Fort Lauderdale or 1926 Great Miami hurricane potential. I'm not calling it a repeat or direct similarity yet, but barring a stall, this situation will be very serious for everyone from Miami-Dade up to Canaveral and please, please, please, heed the warnings of local authorities.

If it is coming in stronger than the models predict, how might that affect it's path?

It might choose its own path. Hopefully out to sea, but remember, Andrew went annular and that was a nightmare for south Florida. The smaller storms are not good for some models because they tend to defy the steering currents and forecast positions.

Andrew was never annular lol. A buzzsaw cane is not the same as an annular cane.

[GCANE]

Eye dewpoint measured 7C. Was 4C this morning.
Rain rate not all that impressive so far.
Could be early signs of an oncoming EWRC.

[Do_For_Love]

It might choose its own path. Hopefully out to sea, but remember, Andrew went annular and that was a nightmare for south Florida. The smaller storms are not good for some models because they tend to defy the steering currents and forecast positions.

Well hey, if it can choose it's own path, maybe we can negotiate with it. "Dorian, think of all the ACE you could achieve if you go OTS!" lol...

[johngaltfla]

IMHO, folks, the models today may well be trash. Once a storm has the ability to create or enhance its own environment, all bets are off. Please pay attention to the actual path and recon reports over the next 48 hours as that will determine just how bad this can get. Everyone has been cautious thus far, but the historical climatology seems to favor a 1947 Fort Lauderdale or 1926 Great Miami hurricane potential. I'm not calling it a repeat or direct similarity yet, but barring a stall, this situation will be very serious for everyone from Miami-Dade up to Canaveral and please, please, please, heed the warnings of local authorities.

I have suspected the same, but I think it's too early to make that determination. Looking forward tonight's runs as I think they will shed some light on the validity of today's model runs.

I am afraid we will have to wait until tomorrow night's runs as I think this storm may slow in the morning then shift more west versus WNW, creating a problem for the overnight solutions. I just hope that everyone from the Keys to Jacksonville, Miami to Tampa are paying attention. The biggest problem is that it is very rare for a storm to suddenly stop momentum in one direction and shift without a major change in steering currents powerful enough to over come the environment around a Cat 4 or 5. I hope our governor accelerates evacuations in the morning and flips the Turnpike and Alligator Alley to one way only. Fort Lauderdale/Miami are the worst areas to imagine attempting a mass evacuation.

[AutoPenalti]

IMHO, folks, the models today may well be trash. Once a storm has the ability to create or enhance its own environment, all bets are off. Please pay attention to the actual path and recon reports over the next 48 hours as that will determine just how bad this can get. Everyone has been cautious thus far, but the historical climatology seems to favor a 1947 Fort Lauderdale or 1926 Great Miami hurricane potential. I'm not calling it a repeat or direct similarity yet, but barring a stall, this situation will be very serious for everyone from Miami-Dade up to Canaveral and please, please, please, heed the warnings of local authorities.

No, I’m pretty sure they still follow upper level flow...

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1167581184131514373

[Visioen]

DMIN for ya

[ozonepete]

IMHO, folks, the models today may well be trash. Once a storm has the ability to create or enhance its own environment, all bets are off. Please pay attention to the actual path and recon reports over the next 48 hours as that will determine just how bad this can get. Everyone has been cautious thus far, but the historical climatology seems to favor a 1947 Fort Lauderdale or 1926 Great Miami hurricane potential. I'm not calling it a repeat or direct similarity yet, but barring a stall, this situation will be very serious for everyone from Miami-Dade up to Canaveral and please, please, please, heed the warnings of local authorities.

If it is coming in stronger than the models predict, how might that affect it's path?

That could bump it a little further north but it's not worth speculating. Just watch the NHC forecast. They have been doing quite well on track for years now, especially as we get within 3 days of landfall. Don't follow anyone else for track guidance. DO follow your local NWS and city authorities for guidance on what to do if the path makes it likely you will get affected.

[johngaltfla]

IMHO, folks, the models today may well be trash. Once a storm has the ability to create or enhance its own environment, all bets are off. Please pay attention to the actual path and recon reports over the next 48 hours as that will determine just how bad this can get. Everyone has been cautious thus far, but the historical climatology seems to favor a 1947 Fort Lauderdale or 1926 Great Miami hurricane potential. I'm not calling it a repeat or direct similarity yet, but barring a stall, this situation will be very serious for everyone from Miami-Dade up to Canaveral and please, please, please, heed the warnings of local authorities.

No, I’m pretty sure they still follow upper level flow...

We can debate this about a week from now. If I have power.