ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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Stormi
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#381 Postby Stormi » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:42 am

drezee wrote:Radar seemed to show LLC getting sucked into convection a few hours ago. If that is indeed the case, then PR needs to prepare for more than a weak TS...


If all holds up, I certainly agree.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#382 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:44 am

drezee wrote:Radar seemed to show LLC getting sucked into convection a few hours ago. If that is indeed the case, then PR needs to prepare for more than a weak TS...

:uarrow:
Borderline Cat 1 by the time it reaches landfall or graze is my guess now. :cry:
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#383 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:24 am

Real-time meteorology alert:
If Karen has indeed deepened, then it will track W of the models. The 500mb winds are from the East up to PR...
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#384 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:24 am

Like I said yesterday that Karen was going to strengthen some prior to getting to P.R. but circulation is tilted.

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#385 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:52 am

First clue will be where the center crosses PR, NHC has it pass over the extreme E side of PR. Passing over Central PR may keep her more in the west side of cone.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#386 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:58 am

NDG wrote:Like I said yesterday that Karen was going to strengthen some prior to getting to P.R. but circulation is tilted.

https://i.imgur.com/0SkKHHt.gif


Yeah, the circulation is tilted, but Karen is gradually getting her act together early this morning. It is going to be close with Karen becoming a Cat 1 by the time she nears Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. It is possible.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#387 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:09 am

So far Recon is showing that Karen has not intensified as much as it looks on radar, perhaps the LLC is reforming closer to the MLC.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#388 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:10 am

If the center is on the edge of the convection still i doubt that will last ... The mid level on radar is very pronounced.. if that maintians would be an easy reform. Shear seems to have let up enough.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#389 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:12 am

jlauderdal wrote:btw, this is all bad news for wxman57...no days off this week and bones goes back to storage, maybe bones comes out next week


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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#390 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:14 am

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1176454057633996800


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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#391 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:15 am

There is no way the center remains on the edge with that amount of convection and low level vorticity to the south.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#392 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:21 am

Aric Dunn wrote:There is no way the center remains on the edge with that amount of convection and low level vorticity to the south.


Sure it can.. If it's sheared and weak like every model shows. Still way north and poorly organized based on recon.


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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#393 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:22 am

X is where recon found the wind shift, pressure near 1006mb.

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#394 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:25 am

That's a lot northerly winds as the recon gets closer to the MLC, the LLC could very well be trying to reform further south as I type this.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#395 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:26 am

Shear has dropped off quite a bit. Center likely to build under convection

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#396 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:31 am

No TS winds yet lol..
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#397 Postby StruThiO » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:32 am

It's a 960mb tropical wave you guys :lol: funny error

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#398 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:39 am

:na:

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1176457682271854592


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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#399 Postby Tailspin » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:42 am

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1555298736

Looks elongated with possibly two vort's, on this radar atm when zoomed up.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#400 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:44 am

Like I said last night, that convection blowup saved Karen...
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